OPPOSITION LEADER SIDYA TOURE ON NEW GOVERNMENT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000812

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM GV
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER SIDYA TOURE ON NEW GOVERNMENT
AND POLITICAL SITUATION

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D
)


1. (S) SUMMARY. Opposition political leader Sidya Toure
says he is willing to work with the CNDD (Council for
Democracy and Development) as long as elections are held
before the end of 2009. At the same time, he is watching the
CNDD closely as he is concerned about the group's political
inexperience and alleged ties to rival opposition leader
Alpha Conde. Sidya claims that Alpha Conde solicited
financing from Libya for the coup, and that Alpha Conde and
the RPG (Rally for the Guinean People) are influencing
government appointments and decisions. Sidya's political
strategy appears largely unchanged from the one he pursued
before Conte's death. He is focused on holding elections as
quickly as possible. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On December 30, POLOFF met with Sidya Toure, leader
of the opposition Union Force Republican (UFR) political
party, to discuss recent developments in the aftermath of the
December 23 coup d'etat. A former prime minister, Sidya is
unusually open with the USG, and quick to share his opinions.
As POLOFF entered his office, Sidya was just finishing a
telephone conversation with rival opposition leader Alpha
Conde of the Rally for the Guinean People (RPG).

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THE BLOCKAGE IS FINALLY GONE
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3. (S) When asked how the political situation has been
developing, Sidya smiled and said "well, I cannot say that I
am unhappy that the blockage is finally gone," adding "and we
escaped the PUP (ruling Party for Unity and Progress),so
that is a good thing." He said that he had expected a coup
d'etat and that he was one of the first political leaders to
step up and ask that the population give the new government a
chance. At the same time, Sidya said he personally knows
only a handful of CNDD members (Council for Democracy and
Development). "I am worried about the level of education and
experience on the Council," he said. When POLOFF noted that
many of the members are reportedly university educated, Sidya
scoffed and said "yes, Guinean universities, but that is
already better than what we had under Conte."

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LOOKING TO THE NEW GOVERNMENT
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4. (S) Sidya questioned whether or not the CNDD is capable
of governing the country. "It is not clear how decisions are
actually being made," he said. He pointed out that the CNDD
seems to be holding meeting after meeting without a clear
idea of what they are trying to accomplish, and that these
meetings are open to a wide range of people. Sidya said that
this strategy may work in the short-term, but will prove
difficult when the CNDD actually sits down to begin operating
like a real government.


5. (S) Later in the discussion, Sidya said that he had
neither a positive nor a negative view on the CNDD. "We have
no choice but to accept to work with them because they are
who is there," he said. However, he repeatedly said that he
and other political leaders are watching to see how the
government takes shape.


6. (S) Referring to the new president, Sidya said that
Moussa Dadis Camara is generally a good choice. "He is
acceptable mainly because he is from a minority ethnic group,
and between you and me, because he is Catholic; those are
both good, neutral things," Sidya said.


7. (S) When asked about the new prime minister nominated
earlier the same day, Kabinet Kourouma, Sidya said that he
did not know much about him, but that he "is not a stupid
boy." At the same time, Sidya expressed concern over the
appointment because he said that the PM is linked to the RPG,
a predominantly Malinke party. Sidya claimed that an
influential group driven by Alpha Conde successfully pushed
the new prime minister's nomination, after five days of
negotiations. Sidya emphasized that the government must have
a strong ethnic/regional balance. According to him, the CNDD
is already relatively balanced, but the PM's appointment
suggests that the government may start favoring the Malinkes
over other ethnic groups. He claimed that Vice President
Sekouba Konate is also directly linked to the RPG. At one
point, he said that we could be facing "a return to the first
republic," referring to the Sekou Toure regime. "We are
waiting and watching," he said.

CONAKRY 00000812 002 OF 002



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BEHIND THE COUP - ALPHA CONDE AND LIBYA
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8. (S) Sidya claimed that Alpha Conde's December 29 return
to Guinea was carefully calculated on the part of the RPG and
the new government. According to Sidya, Alpha Conde helped
organize the coup by soliciting financing from Libya, noting
that Conde has a close personal relationship with Kaddafi.
"I have heard it from several very reliable sources," Sidya
said, "I am confident that Libya financed this coup." He
added that when it became clear that the president was
deathly ill, the RPG called Conde back to the country.
"There were other groups planning a coup and I thought it
would be one of them, but this is the group that came out on
top," he said. When asked whether any of these other groups
might still be planning a counter-coup, Sidya said that he
thought they had abandoned their plans. POLOFF also asked
whether the coup and/or the RPG were linked in any way to
former Prime Minister Kouyate. Without hesitation, Sidya
replied "no." Several times during the course of the
discussion, Sidya referred to Alpha Conde as the "leftist,"
the "socialist," or the "communist."

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MOVING TOWARD ELECTIONS
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9. (SBU) Emphasizing the USG's position that a civilian
transition needs to happen quickly, POLOFF asked Sidya about
the UFR's immediate political strategy. Sidya said that he
is currently willing to work with the CNDD as an interim
government as long as elections are held before the end of

2009. He said that various political manipulations under
former Prime Minister Souare had stagnated the voter
registration process, which he estimated still needs another
three or four months to be completed. "We should focus on
completing the registration no later than then the end of
May, and then look to hold elections in October or November,"
he said. Sidya emphasized that presidential and legislative
elections should be held concurrently. "We cannot have a
democratically elected legislature answering to an executive
authority installed by a military coup d'etat," he said.


10. (SBU) Sidya said that he also plans to push for
constitutional amendments that restore term limits and reduce
the presidential term to four or five years. In addition, he
wants to officially include a prime minister position, which
would be a presidential appointment. When asked whether he
was coordinating this agenda with other political parties,
Sidya said that he is in regular contact with rival
opposition leaders Alpha Conde, Cellou Diallo (UFDG),and
Ousmane Bah (UPR).

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SEEKING CANDIDATE ENDORSEMENT
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11. (S) Before closing the meeting, Sidya told POLOFF that
he is hoping the USG will not only support elections, but
also support the development of a "liberal, democratic
government." Referring to Alpha Conde, he said "you need to
support the liberals, not the leftists." POLOFF said that
the USG will support the electoral process, but not a
specific candidate. Sidya scoffed and said "yes, but you
always have your ideal candidate in mind; the U.S. Government
is not going to want to see a leftist, communist regime come
to Guinea." Sidya added that he was saying this not because
he was trying to advance his own candidacy, but because
Guinea needs someone who effectively reform the government
administration...and that none of the other presidential
candidates are qualified to do that.

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COMMENT
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12. (S) Sidya's strategy for engaging with the Guinean
Government seems essentially the same as it was before Conte
died. He is looking for a commitment to transparent
elections, which he hopes will ultimately usher in a civilian
government. At the same time, he was withholding judgment on
whether or not the CNDD is sincere in its commitments. Sidya
seemed more worried about the new government's alleged links
to Alpha Conde than he was about the installation of a
military transition.
RASPOLIC