OPPOSITION LEADER SIDYA TOURE ON NEW GOVERNMENT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000812 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM GV SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER SIDYA TOURE ON NEW GOVERNMENT AND POLITICAL SITUATION Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D ) ¶1. (S) SUMMARY. Opposition political leader Sidya Toure says he is willing to work with the CNDD (Council for Democracy and Development) as long as elections are held before the end of 2009. At the same time, he is watching the CNDD closely as he is concerned about the group's political inexperience and alleged ties to rival opposition leader Alpha Conde. Sidya claims that Alpha Conde solicited financing from Libya for the coup, and that Alpha Conde and the RPG (Rally for the Guinean People) are influencing government appointments and decisions. Sidya's political strategy appears largely unchanged from the one he pursued before Conte's death. He is focused on holding elections as quickly as possible. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On December 30, Poloff met with Sidya Toure, leader of the opposition Union Force Republican (UFR) political party, to discuss recent developments in the aftermath of the December 23 coup d'etat. A former prime minister, Sidya is unusually open with the USG, and quick to share his opinions. As Poloff entered his office, Sidya was just finishing a telephone conversation with rival opposition leader Alpha Conde of the Rally for the Guinean People (RPG). -------------- THE BLOCKAGE IS FINALLY GONE -------------- ¶3. (S) When asked how the political situation has been developing, Sidya smiled and said "well, I cannot say that I am unhappy that the blockage is finally gone," adding "and we escaped the PUP (ruling Party for Unity and Progress),so that is a good thing." He said that he had expected a coup d'etat and that he was one of the first political leaders to step up and ask that the population give the new government a chance. At the same time, Sidya said he personally knows only a handful of CNDD members (Council for Democracy and Development). "I am worried about the level of education and experience on the Council," he said. When Poloff noted that many of the members are reportedly university educated, Sidya scoffed and said "yes, Guinean universities, but that is already better than what we had under Conte." -------------- LOOKING TO THE NEW GOVERNMENT -------------- ¶4. (S) Sidya questioned whether or not the CNDD is capable of governing the country. "It is not clear how decisions are actually being made," he said. He pointed out that the CNDD seems to be holding meeting after meeting without a clear idea of what they are trying to accomplish, and that these meetings are open to a wide range of people. Sidya said that this strategy may work in the short-term, but will prove difficult when the CNDD actually sits down to begin operating like a real government. ¶5. (S) Later in the discussion, Sidya said that he had neither a positive nor a negative view on the CNDD. "We have no choice but to accept to work with them because they are who is there," he said. However, he repeatedly said that he and other political leaders are watching to see how the government takes shape. ¶6. (S) Referring to the new president, Sidya said that Moussa Dadis Camara is generally a good choice. "He is acceptable mainly because he is from a minority ethnic group, and between you and me, because he is Catholic; those are both good, neutral things," Sidya said. ¶7. (S) When asked about the new prime minister nominated earlier the same day, Kabinet Kourouma, Sidya said that he did not know much about him, but that he "is not a stupid boy." At the same time, Sidya expressed concern over the appointment because he said that the PM is linked to the RPG, a predominantly Malinke party. Sidya claimed that an influential group driven by Alpha Conde successfully pushed the new prime minister's nomination, after five days of negotiations. Sidya emphasized that the government must have a strong ethnic/regional balance. According to him, the CNDD is already relatively balanced, but the PM's appointment suggests that the government may start favoring the Malinkes over other ethnic groups. He claimed that Vice President Sekouba Konate is also directly linked to the RPG. At one point, he said that we could be facing "a return to the first republic," referring to the Sekou Toure regime. "We are waiting and watching," he said. CONAKRY 00000812 002 OF 002 -------------- BEHIND THE COUP - ALPHA CONDE AND LIBYA -------------- ¶8. (S) Sidya claimed that Alpha Conde's December 29 return to Guinea was carefully calculated on the part of the RPG and the new government. According to Sidya, Alpha Conde helped organize the coup by soliciting financing from Libya, noting that Conde has a close personal relationship with Kaddafi. "I have heard it from several very reliable sources," Sidya said, "I am confident that Libya financed this coup." He added that when it became clear that the president was deathly ill, the RPG called Conde back to the country. "There were other groups planning a coup and I thought it would be one of them, but this is the group that came out on top," he said. When asked whether any of these other groups might still be planning a counter-coup, Sidya said that he thought they had abandoned their plans. Poloff also asked whether the coup and/or the RPG were linked in any way to former Prime Minister Kouyate. Without hesitation, Sidya replied "no." Several times during the course of the discussion, Sidya referred to Alpha Conde as the "leftist," the "socialist," or the "communist." -------------- MOVING TOWARD ELECTIONS -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Emphasizing the USG's position that a civilian transition needs to happen quickly, Poloff asked Sidya about the UFR's immediate political strategy. Sidya said that he is currently willing to work with the CNDD as an interim government as long as elections are held before the end of ¶2009. He said that various political manipulations under former Prime Minister Souare had stagnated the voter registration process, which he estimated still needs another three or four months to be completed. "We should focus on completing the registration no later than then the end of May, and then look to hold elections in October or November," he said. Sidya emphasized that presidential and legislative elections should be held concurrently. "We cannot have a democratically elected legislature answering to an executive authority installed by a military coup d'etat," he said. ¶10. (SBU) Sidya said that he also plans to push for constitutional amendments that restore term limits and reduce the presidential term to four or five years. In addition, he wants to officially include a prime minister position, which would be a presidential appointment. When asked whether he was coordinating this agenda with other political parties, Sidya said that he is in regular contact with rival opposition leaders Alpha Conde, Cellou Diallo (UFDG),and Ousmane Bah (UPR). -------------- SEEKING CANDIDATE ENDORSEMENT -------------- ¶11. (S) Before closing the meeting, Sidya told Poloff that he is hoping the USG will not only support elections, but also support the development of a "liberal, democratic government." Referring to Alpha Conde, he said "you need to support the liberals, not the leftists." Poloff said that the USG will support the electoral process, but not a specific candidate. Sidya scoffed and said "yes, but you always have your ideal candidate in mind; the U.S. Government is not going to want to see a leftist, communist regime come to Guinea." Sidya added that he was saying this not because he was trying to advance his own candidacy, but because Guinea needs someone who effectively reform the government administration...and that none of the other presidential candidates are qualified to do that. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (S) Sidya's strategy for engaging with the Guinean Government seems essentially the same as it was before Conte died. He is looking for a commitment to transparent elections, which he hopes will ultimately usher in a civilian government. At the same time, he was withholding judgment on whether or not the CNDD is sincere in its commitments. Sidya seemed more worried about the new government's alleged links to Alpha Conde than he was about the installation of a military transition. RASPOLIC