EMBASSY CONAKRY PROPOSED ACTION PLAN IN RESPONSE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000799 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM ASEC GV SUBJECT: EMBASSY CONAKRY PROPOSED ACTION PLAN IN RESPONSE TO DECEMBER 23 COUP REF: A. CONAKRY 0787 ¶B. CONAKRY 0788 ¶C. CONAKRY 0789 ¶D. CONAKRY 0793 ¶E. CONAKRY 0796 ¶F. CONAKRY 0797 Classified By: DCM KENT BROKENSHIRE FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (S) In the wake of President Conte's death and the subsequent coup d'etat on December 23 (reftels),the U.S. Government should play a key role in this historic political transition period by promoting the timely installation of a civilian government that is brought to power through free and fair elections in 2009. ¶2. (S) As of December 23, Guinea is ruled by a 32-member junta known as the National Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD),which suspended the constitution, and banned all political and union activity. The CNDD also called for presidential and legislative elections in December 2010. All but six CNDD members are military personnel, and among the military we find one confirmed violator of fundamental human rights and at least four names (including the new President of the Republic) associated with drug trafficking or ties to drug traffickers. ¶3. (S) The immediate imperatives facing this Mission and the international community are 1) to press the CNDD to dismiss unacceptable individuals from its ranks and 2) increase the power of civilians within the group. Members of the Junta have also expressed a willingness to move up the date of presidential and legislative elections, and we intend to work with other donors to press the CNDD to fix a date within the next six to 12 month for elections. ¶4. (S) While the CNDD is currently working out its own power structure, policies and appointments, we believe the US can play a critical role by mobilizing its influence within the international community to build a multilateral, common approach in order to move our primary short-term objectives forward. These objectives - timely elections and expanded civilian participation in government - are shared by our partners, including ECOWAS, the EU, and its individual embassies in Conakry, all of whom have expressed a willingness to act multilaterally. The international community is looking for leadership and we can play that role, coordinating a common international response, and working closely with ECOWAS to ensure regional input. ¶5. (S) The tools at our disposal to press the CNDD to make internal reforms and move the democratic/civilian process forward include leveraging bilateral and multilateral aid, particularly funding and debt reduction from the World Bank and IMF. While the suspension of assistance, if coordinated with other donors, can be threatened, much of that same assistance could be used to facilitate the very dialogue necessary to promote the objectives we seek. Suspending election-related assistance will likely provide the CNDD with a handy, and possibly justified, excuse to delay elections. Exposure in the international press over the inclusion in the CNDD of human rights abusers and individuals with links to narco-traffickers will likely increase international and domestic pressure for the Junta to clean its own house in order to gain credibility. Possible action on limiting visas and military assistance will be raised as appropriate. ¶6. (S) At the same time the Embassy and international community will reach out to political parties, civil society and unions and urge that they play a more dynamic role. Thus far, these players have been largely absent over the past week. We cannot push for a strong civilian government without strong civilian leadership. ¶7. (S) In a meeting scheduled for this evening at Charge,s residence, Embassy Conakry will bring together key elements of the international community to meet face to face with several members of the CNDD. This gathering will make clear to the CNDD that the international community expects decisive action on the inclusions of civilians in the governing council and a timely election date. It will set a precedent for a coordinated common-front approach that we believe will be the key to resolving the current crisis in Guinea. ¶8. (S) At this juncture we do not believe a drawdown of Embassy personnel is warranted, neither for security, nor for policy reasons. Such a drawdown would severely hamper the CONAKRY 00000799 002 OF 002 Embassy,s ability to respond constructively to events in Guinea just when we may be best positioned to influence events in a positive way. In addition, it might signal that the USG is disengaging bilaterally. ¶9. (S) Embassy believes that Guinea is at a critical political crossroads. Through our considerable influence and arsenal of diplomatic tools, we can work toward assuring that Guinea's transition leads to better democracy and greater economic prosperity. However, we have a limited window of opportunity in which to maneuver. We can assume a leadership role within the international community and help focus resources and attention where they stand to have the biggest impact. RASPOLIC