EMBASSY CONAKRY PROPOSED ACTION PLAN IN RESPONSE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000799

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: EMBASSY CONAKRY PROPOSED ACTION PLAN IN RESPONSE
TO DECEMBER 23 COUP

REF: A. CONAKRY 0787

B. CONAKRY 0788

C. CONAKRY 0789

D. CONAKRY 0793

E. CONAKRY 0796

F. CONAKRY 0797

Classified By: DCM KENT BROKENSHIRE FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (S) In the wake of President Conte's death and the
subsequent coup d'etat on December 23 (reftels),the U.S.
Government should play a key role in this historic political
transition period by promoting the timely installation of a
civilian government that is brought to power through free and
fair elections in 2009.


2. (S) As of December 23, Guinea is ruled by a 32-member
junta known as the National Council for Democracy and
Development (CNDD),which suspended the constitution, and
banned all political and union activity. The CNDD also called
for presidential and legislative elections in December 2010.
All but six CNDD members are military personnel, and among
the military we find one confirmed violator of fundamental
human rights and at least four names (including the new
President of the Republic) associated with drug trafficking
or ties to drug traffickers.


3. (S) The immediate imperatives facing this Mission and
the international community are 1) to press the CNDD to
dismiss unacceptable individuals from its ranks and 2)
increase the power of civilians within the group. Members of
the Junta have also expressed a willingness to move up the
date of presidential and legislative elections, and we intend
to work with other donors to press the CNDD to fix a date
within the next six to 12 month for elections.


4. (S) While the CNDD is currently working out its own
power structure, policies and appointments, we believe the US
can play a critical role by mobilizing its influence within
the international community to build a multilateral, common
approach in order to move our primary short-term objectives
forward. These objectives - timely elections and expanded
civilian participation in government - are shared by our
partners, including ECOWAS, the EU, and its individual
embassies in Conakry, all of whom have expressed a
willingness to act multilaterally. The international
community is looking for leadership and we can play that
role, coordinating a common international response, and
working closely with ECOWAS to ensure regional input.


5. (S) The tools at our disposal to press the CNDD to make
internal reforms and move the democratic/civilian process
forward include leveraging bilateral and multilateral aid,
particularly funding and debt reduction from the World Bank
and IMF. While the suspension of assistance, if coordinated
with other donors, can be threatened, much of that same
assistance could be used to facilitate the very dialogue
necessary to promote the objectives we seek. Suspending
election-related assistance will likely provide the CNDD with
a handy, and possibly justified, excuse to delay elections.
Exposure in the international press over the inclusion in the
CNDD of human rights abusers and individuals with links to
narco-traffickers will likely increase international and
domestic pressure for the Junta to clean its own house in
order to gain credibility. Possible action on limiting visas
and military assistance will be raised as appropriate.


6. (S) At the same time the Embassy and international
community will reach out to political parties, civil society
and unions and urge that they play a more dynamic role. Thus
far, these players have been largely absent over the past
week. We cannot push for a strong civilian government
without strong civilian leadership.


7. (S) In a meeting scheduled for this evening at
Charge,s residence, Embassy Conakry will bring together key
elements of the international community to meet face to face
with several members of the CNDD. This gathering will make
clear to the CNDD that the international community expects
decisive action on the inclusions of civilians in the
governing council and a timely election date. It will set a
precedent for a coordinated common-front approach that we
believe will be the key to resolving the current crisis in
Guinea.


8. (S) At this juncture we do not believe a drawdown of
Embassy personnel is warranted, neither for security, nor for
policy reasons. Such a drawdown would severely hamper the

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Embassy,s ability to respond constructively to events in
Guinea just when we may be best positioned to influence
events in a positive way. In addition, it might signal that
the USG is disengaging bilaterally.


9. (S) Embassy believes that Guinea is at a critical
political crossroads. Through our considerable influence and
arsenal of diplomatic tools, we can work toward assuring that
Guinea's transition leads to better democracy and greater
economic prosperity. However, we have a limited window of
opportunity in which to maneuver. We can assume a leadership
role within the international community and help focus
resources and attention where they stand to have the biggest
impact.
RASPOLIC