GOSSIP FROM CAMP ALPHA YAYA - RUMORS ABOUT THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000773 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC GV SUBJECT: GOSSIP FROM CAMP ALPHA YAYA - RUMORS ABOUT THE PRESIDENT'S HEALTH REF: A. CONAKRY 0290 ¶B. CONAKRY 0662 Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. A civilian contact at Camp Alpha Yaya says people are speculating widely as to the state of President Conte's health, and in some cases, asserting that he may already be dead. Contact claims that the military has been holding succession meetings at Camp Alpha Yaya. There have also been extensive rumors and speculation in the local press. However, other Embassy sources close to the president report that Conte is alive. On a separate topic, contact said that mutiny leader Claude Pivi's influence and standing is waning. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On December 18, Poloff met with Yaya Diallo (PROTECT),a civilian living at Camp Alpha Yaya who requested the meeting in order to share information. This was the third time Poloff had met with contact over a six month period. Contact's motivations and credibility are unclear, but he has contributed useful information in the past (reftels). ¶3. (C) According to Diallo, Claude Pivi's (aka Coplan) standing and influence have fallen considerably in recent weeks. He said that Pivi used to have more than 80 soldiers backing him, but is now down to just a handful, between four and eight. Diallo said that the others "disappeared." When Poloff asked if they had actually disappeared or just been transferred to other bases, Diallo insisted that many of them had disappeared, pointing out that family and friends had not heard from them for some time. He cited a specific example of a soldier personally known to him, named Bafaiye, who disappeared some weeks ago. ¶4. (C) Referring to the Minister of Security's recent announcement that persons driving vehicles with tinted windows and/or no matriculation plates would be arrested, Diallo said that Pivi's movements have become more restricted. "That policy targets Pivi specifically since he uses tinted windows and does not have vehicle plates," he said. According to Diallo, Pivi has been forced to maintain a lower profile because of the security policy and the "disappearance" of loyal supporters. ¶5. (C) Turning to rampant rumors about the president's declining health and possible death, Diallo said that he did not know for sure if the president is still alive, but that ;many people think that he may already have died. He acknowledged recent public sightings of the president's motorcade, but said that many people think the government is just trying to make it look like the president is still alive. "No one has actually seen the president for several days," he said. Referring to a recent television statement by the Minister of Communication, Tibou Kamara, Diallo said that Kamara was purposely ambivalent in his comments. "He did not say that the president was well or that he was dead, only that the government continues to function under the president's orders, and that they will continue to keep the population apprised as to Conte's health condition," Diallo told Poloff. ¶6. (C) In addition, Diallo said that he had heard from several sources that a Dr. Cisse had been urgently called to the president's side on Monday. He said that he had heard that the president had fallen down and then descended into a "profound" coma. ¶7. (C) Diallo said that Camp Alpha Yaya has been in a state of "chaos and panic" for the past few days, and that there have been military meetings regarding a possible successor to the president. When asked whether any names had been discussed, Diallo said that people have not been talking about what has been going on inside the meetings. However, he said that the military is liaising closely with the Minister Secretary General of the Presidency, Alpha Ibrahima Keira. Diallo added that it is almost certain that they will pick a military person to take over, and that Keira will likely back that person. ¶8. (C) On a side note, Diallo said that President Conte had recently taken a fifth wife who is 16 years of age. According to Diallo, General Sampil was grateful to Conte after the military mutiny since Conte intervened when Sampil was being held hostage by the mutineers. To return the favor, Sampil reportedly gave a young female relative to Conte as a gift. Diallo said that the fifth wife resides in CONAKRY 00000773 002 OF 002 the village and takes care of the president when he is there. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Much of Diallo's information is basically gossip, but Embassy has been hearing similar reports from other sources, which could either lend credence or simply reflect the power of Guinea's rumor mill. We have heard from multiple sources that there have been closed meetings to discuss a potential successor. A generally reliable internet news site (aminata.com) reported on December 18 that the president's Chief of Protocol traveled to the United States to bring back Conte's children while separate envoys went to France, Morocco, and London for the same purpose. ¶10. (SBU) Another news site (Guinee24.com) reported that soldiers at Camp Alpha Yaya demanded that the government "show them their general" before December 17, and threatened to go to Camp Samory Toure to verify his status themselves. DATT visited Camp Samory Toure on December 17 and saw the president's motorcade parked on the base, although he did not see the president. Some areas of the camp were cordoned off and under heavy security, which was unusual. The Minister of Communication's announcement on December 16, assuring the population of the president's health, was also unusual. Embassy is not aware of the government doing this previously, despite similar rumors of the president's declining health. ¶11. (C) Rumors regarding Conte's health and possible death are a frequent occurrence in Guinea, and have so far proven false. It is as yet unclear whether the same holds true this time around. Sources close to the president report that Conte is alive. END COMMENT. RASPOLIC