BUSINESS (AND POLITICS) AS USUAL IN GUINEA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000074 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON ELAB PREL ASEC GV SUBJECT: BUSINESS (AND POLITICS) AS USUAL IN GUINEA REF: A. CONAKRY 0064 ¶B. CONAKRY 0023 ¶C. CONAKRY 0162 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The 62% increase in fuel prices earlier this week appears to have generally been peacefully accepted by the population, at least so far. On the political side, bits and pieces of Guinea's political puzzle continue to develop. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- POPULATION RELATIVELY QUIET ON FUEL PRICE INCREASE -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Guineans appear to going about business as usual this week despite changes to the government's petroleum subsidy program that caused fuel prices to jump by 62% on April 1 (reftel). After a few isolated demonstrations on Tuesday, largely precipitated by students, the city has been quiet. As of Wednesday, most of Guinea's students were on an official spring break, thanks to a late evening government declaration on national television and radio on April 1. By Wednesday, traffic patterns had appeared to return to normal, aside from the generally reduced circulation due to school being out of session. Union leader Mme Serah Rabiatou Diallo did several radio spots early in the week urging people to be patient with the higher prices, pointing out that the fuel subsidy was unsustainable given world oil prices. ¶3. (SBU) Towards the end of week, there were lines of cars queued up at some of the local gas stations. Gas Bureau Chief Yaya Diallo told Econoff that many of the stations had not actually bought supplies since the price increase, which means that they may have been running short on fuel. However, he said that stations started replenishing their supplies on April 4. Diallo also said that the supply tanker arrived on schedule, but was only carrying diesel. Another tanker carrying regular gas is reportedly expected April 5. -------------- POLITICS AS USUAL -------------- ¶4. (SBU) President Conte has reportedly returned to his home in the village due to the death of his nephew, who was killed on April 2 when he was shot to death outside his home. Nephew Conte (name unknown) was a lieutenant in the gendarmerie and the oldest son of one of the president's elder sisters (same mother, same father). According to police sources, Nephew Conte was at home when he heard his neighbors cry for help as they were being attacked by bandits. He reportedly came out, unarmed, and was shot by the bandits. Both the gendarmes and the police are investigating the case. ¶5. (U) April 3 was a national holiday in honor of Guinea's second republic, which was established under President Conte. Prime Minister Kouyate presided over a commemorative ceremony in the capital. President Conte did not make any public appearances, but he may have already been on his way back to the village. ¶6. (SBU) The local press reported a violent disagreement between union leaders in Boke, apparently over leadership issues. The dispute was between local representatives of the Union of Guinean Workers (USTG) and the Confederation of Unionized Guinean Workers (CNTG). Details are sketchy so far, but local authorities confirm that a disagreement took place and that several people were injured. ¶7. (U) The Chantal Colle Affair (reftel B) continues to fuel Guinea's rumor mill. A few recent press reports have indicated that Colle may return to Guinea soon, under the explicit order of the president. The Embassy has not seen any concrete evidence to support these claims. ¶8. (SBU) The new controversial director of the National Communications Commission (CNC),Tibou Kamara (Reftel C, addressed an official letter to the Minister of Communications regarding who the government should recognize as the official head of the Patronat, an organized association of Guinean businesses. As written, the letter suggests that Kamara is supporting controversial millionaire Mamadou Syllah, although Kamara told PAO that this is not the CONAKRY 00000074 002 OF 002 case. Although the CNC is technically a regulatory body, Kamara may be weighing in on the Patronat issue in order to direct the national radio and television media to recognize only one Patronat so as to avoid public confusion. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Guinea's socio-political situation remains much the same as it has for the past few months. The population's reaction to the long-anticipated fuel price increase has almost been a non-event, although the timely release of students to spring break may have temporarily muted a potentially volatile response. On other fronts, bits and pieces of Guinea's political puzzle continue to emerge. These developments may be completely unrelated, but taken together, they help add dimension to a complex political dynamic. END COMMENT. CARTER