GOG NEGOTIATING WITH LABOR UNIONS TO END CIVIL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000678 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ASEC PGOV ELAB GV SUBJECT: GOG NEGOTIATING WITH LABOR UNIONS TO END CIVIL PROTESTS REF: A. CONAKRY 0663 ¶B. CONAKRY 0668 ¶C. CONAKRY 0670 ¶D. CONAKRY 0675 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Several ministers and members of the National Assembly met with union leaders last night in an attempt to negotiate an end to the civil disturbances that have crippled the capital since November 2. Negotiations are expected to continue today. The union leaders are willing to talk, but have emphasized that they are in no way connected to the protestors. Both GoG and union contacts have acknowledged that there is very little room to negotiate the fixed fuel price, raising questions about what both parties realistically expect to achieve. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Over a national broadcast yesterday evening, the Minister of Communication encouraged Guineans to remain calm, assuring citizens that the GoG has already started negotiating with the national labor unions in order to resolve the current crisis, which is related to a government fixed fuel price (reftels). ¶3. (SBU) Dr. Ibrahima Fofana, co-chair of the unions-intersyndicale, confirmed that union leaders had met with GoG officials yesterday night, including the ministers of security, commerce, finance, national reconciliation, justice, and cooperation. The President of the National Assembly, Aboubacar Sompare, and a number of National Assembly deputies also participated. A local internet news site (guineenews.org) reported that Sompare refused to let members of the press cover the meeting. Dr. Fofana told Pol LES that the meeting is expected to continue today. ¶4. (SBU) According to the Secretary General of the Ministry of Commerce, the GoG is not actually negotiating the price of fuel, but rather, attempting to explain the GoG's position to the labor unions. Contact told Econ LES that the population does not understand the fact that the Guinean Government simply cannot afford to support a large fuel subsidy. He said that the GoG is trying to explain the facts. ¶5. (SBU) Dr. Fofana emphasized that the labor unions did not organize the current protests, and that they are not supporting the protestors. However, he told Pol LES that the unions want to help resolve the issue. (COMMENT. The unions were opposed to the initial price change in April and have been pressuring the government to bring the price back down. END COMMENT). 
 ¶6. (SBU) According to Dr. Fofana, the unions plan to make an official recommendation to the government during today's meeting, but he could not specify what that recommendation might be. He noted that union members across the country are demanding lower fuel prices and have indicated to union leaders that they will not accept the current price of 5,500 GnF per liter. However, Dr. Fofana noted that he had contacted union leaders in neighboring Senegal, Mali, and Cote d'Ivoire and discovered that Guinea's gas is still the cheapest in the region, even at the 5,500 GnF mark. He claimed that local inflation and reduced purchasing power make the price untenable in Guinea. Still, Dr. Fofana acknowledged that the unions do not have much bargaining room with the government since the price is already relatively low. ¶7. (SBU) A high-level contact at the Ministry of Defense told DATT that the situation may be more complex than it appears. He said that the fuel companies, gas stations located up country, and fuel transporters are subtly interfering in the negotiations, and possibly encouraging the demonstrations. According to contact, these parties are trying to force the government to push the price of fuel even lower so that they can reap big profits when they sell Guinea's much cheaper fuel at higher prices in neighboring countries. (COMMENT. Before the GoG reduced the fuel subsidy in April, raising the price from 4,300 GnF to 7,000 GnF, significant quantities of fuel were reportedly being smuggled out of the country. After the price increase, demand for fuel immediately dropped by 30%. Before the price increase, the town of Siguiri, a town of 50,000 residents located on Guinea's border with Mali, was consuming as much fuel as Conakry, a city of 2 million, suggesting significant smuggling activity. END COMMENT). ¶8. (SBU) The Ministry of Defense contact also noted that there are several fuel supply ships waiting offshore at the port of Conakry, but that the ships are likely going to CONAKRY 00000678 002 OF 002 depart without offloading their cargo. Contact said that the port has a limited capacity to store fuel, and the lack of movement of fuel over the past few days means that the GoG does not have anywhere to put the new shipment. In addition, contact said that Guinea's fuel suppliers are hesitant to offload because they are not confident that the GoG will actually be able to pay for what they have ordered. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The fact that the GoG is negotiating with the unions is interesting in that the unions are claiming that they are not directly involved in the actual protests. Since no one has emerged as an interlocutor who can speak on behalf of the protestors, the GoG may simply be looking for someone with whom they can "negotiate." At the same time, the government does not have any room to negotiate. Economic contacts are already questioning whether the GoG can continue to support the subsidy at the current price of 5,500 GnF, and have emphasized that pushing the price any lower will essentially break the bank. The GoG made similar statements about funds for paying the military bonuses during the May military mutiny, but then quickly came up with the money as the situation deteriorated. Econ LES commented that the government may just be posturing, i.e. trying to look like it is responding without any expectation of actually doing something. END COMMENT. RASPOLIC