ALL EYES ON NOVEMBER 1 - INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000642 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2018 TAGS: PGOV PGOV PREL ASEC GV SUBJECT: ALL EYES ON NOVEMBER 1 - INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE COUP OR MILITARY UNREST REF: A. CONAKRY 0520 ¶B. CONAKRY 0525 ¶C. CONAKRY 0538 ¶D. CONAKRY 0565 ¶E. CONAKRY 0568 ¶F. CONAKRY 0588 ¶G. CONAKRY 0620 CONAKRY 00000642 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (S) SUMMARY. People have been talking about a possible coup d,etat in Guinea for a number of weeks now. Recent information from various sources suggests that a plot may move forward within the next few days, before the November 1 national military holiday. At the same time, these same indications may simply point to heightened concerns about another military mutiny and/or potential military unrest over the long-anticipated annual promotion list. A recent influx of visa applications suggests that senior military officials are uneasy. Embassy continues to monitor the situation closely. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (S) Over the past month, mid-level officers of the so called &19th promotion,8 in apparent collaboration with civilian youth groups, have been plotting a coup d,etat to overthrow President Lansana Conte (reftels). The coup organizers have been meeting with Embassy DATT and diplomats from other diplomatic missions (especially France) in an attempt to drum up international support. Embassy officers have repeatedly told both military and civilian contacts that the U.S. Government would immediately condemn such a coup attempt. Despite receiving this message at every opportunity, one of the military coup plotters approached Embassy DATT over the weekend and asked that the USG supply a list of requested items deemed critical to the coup attempt, including radios, fuel, and rations. The DATT denied the request and emphasized again that the USG does not support coups. ¶3. (S) Information from various sources suggests that the coup plot may be gaining momentum. A civilian youth told Poloff last week that he expected the coup to take place before November 1, which is a national holiday celebrating the creation of the Guinean army fifty years ago. The local press has been speculating about possible unrest around the November 1 holiday, citing concerns about a renewed military mutiny and/or upset over the long-anticipated military promotion list, which is currently due to be released on November 2. (COMMENT. Many junior military officers are expecting that senior officers will be retired, opening up promotion opportunities for the younger generation. END COMMENT). Incidentally, sources report that ECOWAS countries are planning to send high level military officials, including several chiefs of defense, to participate in Guinea,s celebration. ¶4. (S) This same youth contact also told DATT on October 27 that he had finished drafting a proposed amendment to the Guinean constitution. In coordination with the 19th promotion, the youths have been reportedly planning to use the military to force the National Assembly to pass a constitutional amendment in an attempt to lend legitimacy to the anticipated coup. Contact told Poloff last week that the group could not go forward with the coup until the proposed amendment was ready. ¶5. (S) Beginning Monday, the Embassy began to see an unusual increase in the number of visa applications from high-level military officers. A total of nine urgent visa applications have been received to date, all indicating that travel will take place before November 1. Six of the nine applications list &official mission8 as the reason for travel. When pressed for details during Conoff,s interview, the applicants were unable to clarify the purpose of their visit. Several of the requests bear the signature of the Minister Secretary General of the Presidency, Alpha Ibrahima Keira, instead of the ministers of defense or foreign affairs, per standard procedures. Most of the applications were accompanied by brand new passports, even in cases where the applicant had reported recent previous travel. Embassy has not yet issued any of the requested visas. ¶6. (S) General Jacques Toure, the head of the national gendarmerie, was among the applicants, along with his wife. Toure, who speaks Russian and French, has never traveled to the U.S. before. This morning, an errand runner from the Presidency told Conoff that he needed to pick up the visa for General Toure immediately. Appearing to be in a near panic, he said that he did not want to have to go back to his boss CONAKRY 00000642 002 OF 002 without the visa. Sensitive reporting suggests that Toure may be seeking emergency medical treatment, although he listed his purpose of travel as &official mission.8 General Toure may have been a prison guard or officer at Camp Boiro during Sekou Toure,s regime (COMMENT. Thousands of people were arbitrarily killed at Camp Boiro during that period. END COMMENT). ¶7. (S) Contacts at the French Embassy report an unusual increase in the volume of visa requests, but had not yet analyzed where the visa requests were coming from, and for what purpose. Embassy DATT was at the French Embassy earlier today and saw Guinean Navy officer Admiral Daffe with passport in hand, applying for a French visa. The French Embassy told DATT that the president,s son and notorious drug kingpin, Ousmane Conte, had applied for a visa using a diplomatic passport, but provided no reason for travel. According to source, Ousmane left &in a huff8 when the visa was not immediately issued. (COMMENT. This is the second time Ousmane has applied for a French visa over the past few months. END COMMENT). ¶8. (S) Sensitive reporting indicates that senior level military officials may be aware of the younger officers, coup plot, and taking concrete steps to preempt them. Citing cost saving measures, they have reportedly blocked access to key fuel depots located within Conakry military camps. However, the military,s senior leadership could also simply be attempting to minimize the potential for unrest among the rank and file soldiers and/or avoid another military mutiny, rather than anticipating an actual coup plot. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (S) The influx of visa applications from senior military officials is unusual in of itself, but especially given the fact that these leaders are trying to travel before the national celebration of the Guinean military,s 50th birthday. Coup plotters may be under pressure to act soon if senior leadership is indeed getting wind of their activities. They may also have promised civilian youths that they would act before November 1. Concerns over another military mutiny are legitimate as mutiny leader Claude Pivi (aka Coplan) has reportedly promised soldiers that he will force the GoG to make permanent the 1 million GnF monthly bonus that they had been receiving through the first week of October. The anticipated promotion list is another source of potential friction. At this point, it is unclear whether a coup is likely to take place over the next few days, but Embassy is receiving numerous indications that suggest some sort of military unrest may be imminent. Embassy has scheduled an EAC meeting for Wednesday morning and will continue to monitor the situation closely. END COMMENT. RASPOLIC