ETHNIC POLITICS IN GUINEA - GENERAL BACKGROUND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000600

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: ETHNIC POLITICS IN GUINEA - GENERAL BACKGROUND


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. This cable is the first in a series of
reports exploring the role of ethnicity in Guinean politics.
Guinea has been widely seen as a violence-averse, tolerant
country in which various ethnic groups have been able to live
together peacefully, avoiding the inter-ethnic conflicts that
have ravaged some of its neighbors. However, as the
president's health wanes and various actors anticipate an
eventual grab for power, ethnicity seems to be playing an
increasingly prominent role in Guinea's complex political
dynamic. This first report provides some general background
on Guinea's ethnic groups as well as some comments on the
role ethnicity has played in Guinean politics in the past.
END SUMMARY.

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FOUR REGIONS, FOUR ETHNIC GROUPS
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2. (SBU) Guinea encompasses four main ethnic groups, which
roughly correspond with the country's four natural regions.
There has not been an official census in more than a decade,
but the common perception is that the Peuhl (Fulani) ethnic
group of Middle Guinea (also known as the Fouta Djallon) is
the largest group, representing approximately 40% of the
population. The second largest group is the Malinke of Upper
Guinea, representing approximately 30% of the population.
The Soussou of Coastal Guinea comprises approximately 20% of
the population. The remaining 10% of the population
encompasses a number of smaller tribes, most of which are
based in the Forest Region, and are generally referred to as
the "Forestiers," or "Forest People."


3. (SBU) Although each region is identified with a specific
ethnic group, extensive inter-marrying and migration have
blurred ethnic lines. It is common to hear someone described
as "Soussou by birth, but Peuhl by culture" or "Malinke by
birth, but Soussou by culture." It is not unusual to meet a
Malinke person living in the Forest Region just as it is not
unusual to meet a Soussou living in the Fouta Djallon.
Conakry, which is considered part of Coastal Guinea, is an
ethnic melting pot with significant numbers of people from
each ethnic group. However, many of Conakry's neighborhoods
are specifically identified with one ethnic group or another.
For example, Hamadallaye and Bambeto are considered Peuhl
while Matoto and Sig-Medina are Malinke.

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SHARED TIES ACROSS BORDERS
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4. (SBU) Further complicating the issue is the fact that
most ethnic groups transcend international borders. As
Guinea's borders are highly porous, citizens claiming
neighboring nationalities frequently transit back and forth
across the borders, as do a number of Guineans. Ethnic
groups related to the Malinkes or the Peuhls are living in
Guinea-Bissau, Senegal and Mali while many of the Forest
tribes are connected to tribes in neighboring Sierra Leone
and Liberia.

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GUINEAN FIRST
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5. (SBU) Since becoming independent 50 years ago, Guinea has
been widely seen as a violence-averse, tolerant country in
which various ethnic groups have been able to live together
peacefully, avoiding the inter-ethnic conflicts that have
ravaged some of its neighbors. Observers have attributed
this phenomenon in part to the legacy of Sekou Toure (a
Malinke),a notorious Guinean dictator believed responsible
for tens of thousands of deaths over the course of his regime
(1958-1984). People from all ethnic groups were reportedly
killed indiscriminately, prompting citizens to develop a
sense of "Guinean-ness" as everyone had suffered equally and
therefore had a shared history.

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MAINTAINING ETHNIC BALANCE
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6. (SBU) Toure's regime was followed by a military coup that
installed General Lansana Conte (a Soussou) as president.
Conte has been seen by some as a shrewd manipulator who has
successfully played the larger ethnic groups off of each
other in order to maintain his own grasp on power. The
Soussou group has certainly benefited from Conte's regime
with many Soussous occupying key government positions over
the years. At the same time, Conte has also appointed

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members of other ethnic groups to high-level positions in
order to maintain some degree of ethnic balance. This
strategy may have helped minimize inter-ethnic conflicts.


7. (SBU) The current assortment of ministers and high-level
officials in the Conte administration helps illustrate how
the president balances ethnic issues. Prime Minister Souare
is a Peuhl, as are a significant number of his ministers.
However, the Minister Secretary General of the Presidency,
Alpha Ibrahima Keira, who may now be one of the most powerful
officials in government, is Malinke. Old guard Soussous are
scattered throughout the ministries. This balance is not
accidental. Every time there is a new government, Embassy
contacts are quick to analyze the ethnic balance, and just as
quick to criticize any perceived slights to one group or
another.

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ETHNIC POLITICAL PARTIES
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8. (SBU) Conte's ruling party, the Party for Unity and
Progress (PUP),is generally seen as one of the most
ethnically balanced political parties, although it may
include a proportionally higher number of Soussou members.
Opposition party Union of Republican Forces (UFR),under
former Prime Minister Sidya Toure, is seen as more balanced
than most, but with strong support from the Peuhls. However,
the rest of the major opposition political parties are
closely identified with a specific ethnic group. The Rally
for the Guinean People (RPG) is predominantly Malinke while
the Union for Guinean Progress (UPG) draws significant
support from the Forest Region. The Union of Guinean
Democratic Forces (UFDG) and the Union for Progress and
Renewal (UPR) are competing heavily for Peuhl constituents.

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ETHNICITY AS A POLITICAL TOOL
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9. (SBU) As the president's health wanes and various actors
anticipate an eventual grab for power, ethnicity seems to be
playing an increasingly prominent role in Guinea's complex
political dynamic. It is difficult to talk to contacts about
the political situation without someone bringing up the issue
of ethnicity one way or another. Many of the country's
intellectuals maintain that serious ethnic tensions do not
really exist in Guinea, but that political leaders are using
ethnicity as a tool to manipulate others, often to serve
their own individual interests. However, the fact that these
"manipulations" have appeared to be fairly effective suggests
that the issue is becoming more problematic than it has been
in the past.


10. (SBU) Over the coming weeks, POLOFF will be meeting with
various organizations and individuals in order to develop a
better sense of how ethnicity may be influencing Guinean
politics as the population prepares for an eventual political
transition.
RASPOLIC