MONDAY LABOR STRIKE LOOKING UNLIKELY

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000053 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ELAB ASEC GV SUBJECT: MONDAY LABOR STRIKE LOOKING UNLIKELY REF: A. CONAKRY 0050 ¶B. CONAKRY 0021 ¶1. (SBU) As Guineans head into the weekend and approach the March 31 deadline set by unions after a short-lived escalation of political tensions in early January, information from various sources suggests that a strike on Monday is unlikely. Political and economic frustrations remain high, but there seems to be little support for a nationwide strike. However, the lack of a planned event does not lessen the possibility of spontaneous political activity in the coming days or weeks. -------------- UNIONS SAY NO STRIKE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Union leaders Dr. Ibrahima Fofana and Mme Sera Rabiatou Diallo were still divided about a possible strike when they spoke with Poloff on March 26 (reftel A). However, both union leaders chatted informally over lunch with POL LES yesterday and said that they do not plan to strike on Monday. Rabiatou later left the table, and Fofana told LES that there is no support for a strike. ¶3. (SBU) While Guineans are generally unhappy with the current political and economic situation, memories of last year,s strikes, and especially the violence and suffering that followed, are still fresh. As in early January, people seem to be unwilling to risk violence in support of an undefined agenda. -------------- FUEL BACK IN THE PUMPS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In an effort to alleviate some of the economic pressure, the Guinean Government reportedly decided to temporarily suspend its decision to ration fuel because of the difficulties it was creating for the population (reftel B). Daily deliveries are now back up to their normal level of about 1.2 million liters and fuel is widely available in the capital. According to an Embassy contact, the fuel tanker is still expected on April 1, but could not say whether the current fuel supply will last until the tanker can be offloaded. -------------- - MINISTER OF SECURITY SAYS NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED -------------- - ¶5. (SBU) The Minister of Interior and Security, Beau Keita, told the Charge on March 28 that there will be no strike. &We will have absolutely no problems,8 he said. He repeatedly assured the Charge that he expects nothing to happen, but if on the off chance that it does, the Ministry will react accordingly to maintain security. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) With the unions backing down and the government helping to satisfy the pressing demand for fuel, a strike on Monday seems unlikely. Embassy continues to monitor the situation, especially the possibility of unplanned, spontaneous protests linked to the country,s underlying political and economic crisis. END COMMENT. BROKENSHIRE