MIXED VIEWS FROM GUINEA'S INTERIOR ON ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000521 SIPDIS SENSITIVE --CORRECTED COPY - PARA MARKINGS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV ASEC GV SUBJECT: MIXED VIEWS FROM GUINEA'S INTERIOR ON ELECTIONS CONAKRY 00000521 001.3 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Over the past few months, the Embassy has visited nine different towns throughout Guinea's interior in an effort to asses electoral readiness and extend our public outreach. The cautious optimism of a year ago appears to be moving towards skepticism for many citizens. Recent changes in the government have some voters worried about the prospects for government neutrality and transparency. However, many local actors are still moving forward with enthusiasm and commitment, recognizing that Guinea's delayed legislative elections represent the key to advancing democratic reforms. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) As part of an effort to extend public outreach while advancing key democracy objectives, Embassy Conakry established an "Adopt a Town" program in May 2008. Under the program, twelve teams of one to two locally engaged staff (LES),with an American as team leader, "adopted" towns throughout Guinea. The teams will travel to their adopted towns several times before, during, and after Guinea's long delayed legislative elections. Nine teams have already made their first visits in recent months, calling on Kindia, Mamou, and Labe in Middle Guinea; Kankan and Siguiri in Upper Guinea; N'Zerekore and Macenta in the Forest Region; and Fria in Maritime Guinea. Teams met with a wide range of contacts including local government officials, political parties, civil society, youth leaders, and the media. -------------- FROM ENTHUSIASM TO AMBIVALENCE -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Towns were in various stages of preparation for Guinea's legislative elections, which are planned for December 2008, but now expected no earlier than February 2009. In Macenta, citizens were visibly energized, and members of the local electoral commission seemed well-informed and ready to get to work. The enthusiasm in Macenta, which was high relative to that of other towns, may have been due to the fact that the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) was in town conducting a training program over the same weekend. ¶4. (SBU) However, a visit to Siguiri also happened to coincide with a CENI training program, but the local reaction was quite different. The Prefect of Siguiri refused to comment on elections preparations saying only that the visiting team lacked an "official Guinean Government travel approval" so he was not at liberty to discuss any details. (COMMENT. Such documents are not required. END COMMENT). In response to a question about how the GoG will work to ensure neutrality in the upcoming elections, the Prefect replied that it was "premature to discuss such a subject." However, the head of the local electoral commission was positive about elections preparations and said that since everyone knows their rights and responsibilities, "it will be easy to force local authorities, including the military, to maintain their neutrality." 5.(SBU) On the other end of the spectrum, citizens in Fria, which is located only a few hours from Conakry, were more focused on immediate concerns such as a lack of basic infrastructure, than they were on elections. In Labe, contacts said that elections preparations were moving smoothly, but that the actual preparation process had not been the problem in previous elections. Instead, they said that the GoG would repeatedly make major changes in high-level positions at the last minute, thereby increasing the president's power, and facilitating elections fraud. Contacts saw the recent spate of presidential appointments as evidence that this practice will continue in the upcoming elections. -------------- HOPE TEMPERED WITH SKEPTICISM -------------- 6.(SBU) Across the country, most contacts seemed to agree that these legislative elections will be a critical mechanism for advancing democracy within the current political climate. However, there was also a high level of skepticism as to whether or not the GoG could hold transparent, credible elections. A women's association in Siguiri told the Embassy team that "there will never be a transparent election in this country as long as President Conte is in power." -------------- FAIR GAME? -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Tensions were evident during a meeting with political parties in Macenta. The opposition parties accused the ruling Party for Unity and Progress (PUP) of withholding information. They pointed out that the voter registration process was supposed to start in Macenta in just a few days, but that none of the opposition parties had been informed, while the PUP representative had clearly been notified. In response, the PUP representative said that all of their information came from their party headquarters in Conakry, and CONAKRY 00000521 002.3 OF 002 pointed out that each of the opposition parties are also headquartered there and should be disseminating information. ¶8. (SBU) The PUP representative in Siguiri told the Embassy team that they have been actively working with the opposition Rally for the Guinean People (RPG) party to reconcile differences and prevent violence. (COMMENT. Siguiri has been a hotspot for election violence in the past. END COMMENT). However, four RPG representatives said that they would prefer to boycott the elections because they are certain that they will be fraudulent, but that they will defer to the decision of their party leadership in Conakry. They added that during past elections, RPG members had been arrested and detained for months, while other members were killed. -------------- MEDIA LACKS RESOURCES -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Media contacts were generally enthusiastic about elections and their role in preventing election fraud. However, contacts repeatedly said that their overall effectiveness will likely be hampered by their lack of resources. Correspondents at the national radio station in Macenta told the Embassy team that they do not have the logistical means for transportation and other expenses necessary for effectively covering the surrounding villages. In addition, Macenta's community radio needs another transmitter in order to be able to broadcast to the entire sous-prefecture. ¶10. (SBU) The Director of Radio Rurale in Siguiri said that he plans to assign correspondents throughout the sous-prefecture on election day, but added that lack of fuel and financial resources may limit the station's ability to cover the election properly. The Director noted that the station had not yet started covering specific election campaigns although the radio station has been running special democracy programs focusing on informing citizens about voting rights and responsibilities. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (SBU) During earlier visits to the interior under former Prime Minister Kouyate's administration, most citizens were cautiously optimistic about elections. While people remain hopeful, more and more appear to be moving towards skepticism, mirroring the views also being expressed by political parties and civil society in the capital. The main political parties are committed to participating, but are unconvinced that the elections will be transparent. Civil society views range from seeing the elections as absolutely futile to a likely catalyst for a civil uprising when they turn out fraudulent. These trips into the interior suggest that training and civic education programs, such as those funded by USAID, will be critical if the elections are going to have even a chance at success. BROKENSHIRE