OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PM'S POLITICAL ADVISOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000505

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PM'S POLITICAL ADVISOR

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. A recently returned Humphrey Fellow who has
been working as the senior political advisor at the PM's
office since 2004, shared his impressions of PM Souare, whom
he sees as largely ineffective. He also recounted three
visits with President Conte over the last four years. The
contact sees the president as clearly unwell physically, but
actively trying to groom his personal successor, as well as
the path of succession. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On September 5, A/DCM met with the Prime Minister's
Senior Political Advisor, Aboubacar Koulibaly. Having just
returned from a Humphrey Fellowship at the University of
North Carolina, Koulibaly has only been working with Prime
Minister Souare for three months. However, he was originally
appointed to the position in 2004 under former Prime Minister
Cellou Diallo, and also worked for former Prime Minister Fal,
and then briefly for former Prime Minister Kouyate.

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JUST PUTTING OUT FIRES
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3. (C) Koulibaly told A/DCM that he does not expect to stay
at the PM's office for much longer because "there is nothing
to do." He said that he has been coming to the office only a
few days a week since the PM has not passed any work his way.
According to Koulibaly, when he met with Souare, the PM told
him he was not sure what Koulibaly could do for him. Under
the August 27 presidential decree that restructured the civil
service, Koulibaly was reassigned from his position as chief
political advisor to "governance advisor." However,
Koulibably says that he still has not been informed as to how
he can contribute to the PM's program. He is exploring a
possible position with UNDP to head up their governance
program.


4. (C) Koulibaly described the PM as a "day to day manager."
He said that Souare has not developed any political strategy
or reform program because he is focusing on putting out the
small fires, such as various labor strikes and the May
military mutiny, that continue to plague the government.


5. (C) "The current government cannot be committed to reform
because they are part of the problem," Koulibaly said. He
added that the only way Guinea can move forward is if the
president is removed from power. According to Koulibaly,
recent shuffles of senior GoG positions reflects the
president's careful strategy to slowly repopulate the
government with loyal supporters (especially members of the
ruling Party for Unity and Progress - PUP). "Eventually, he
will leave the PM absolutely powerless," Koulibaly said.

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VIEWS ON THE PRESIDENT
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6. (C) When A/DCM asked Koulibaly how often he sees the
president, he said that he has seen him three times, once in
2004 with Cellou Diallo, once in 2007 with Kouyate, and just
recently in July 2008 with former finance minister Kassory
Fofana. Koulibaly described the president as enthusiastic
about political reforms during their 2004 meeting. He said
that the president told them (Diallo and Koulibaly) that
their ideas sounded good, and that they should go ahead and
do what they needed to do. At one point, Koulibaly said that
Conte said "I am tired; I just want to go back to the
village." However, Koulibaly told Diallo afterwards that the
president is sick and asked whether or not it was prudent to
trust him. At that time, he was also convinced that Conte's
ill health would prevent him from living out the year.


7. (C) Three years later, during the 2007 meeting with
Kouyate, Koulibaly said that he focused on Conte's body
language. "He never looked at Kouyate throughout the entire
discussion; there was no respect, and he was not sincere."
He added that the president's only comment was made more to
the audience around Kouyate. He reportedly said "the people
say he is good; I want him to show me that he is good."
Koulibaly stepped away from that meeting with the impression
that the relationship between the PM and the president would
be strained, and that the president "was planning something."
Again, he saw Conte as frail and unlikely to live out the
year.


8. (C) The recent July courtesy call on the president with
Kassory Fofana was more public and Koulibaly did not have an
opportunity to witness any private exchanges. He said that
there was a crowd of people around the president, and that

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Conte looked worse physically than he ever has. Joking,
Koulibaly told A/DCM "I am done making any predictions about
when he is going to die - but soon?"


9. (C) However, Koulibaly cautioned that the president
sometimes trys to appear more ill than he really is in order
to keep people guessing. He was sure that Conte is "up to
something" to get rid of PM Souare in order to put his "real
face" out there. According to Koulibaly, Conte is probably
grooming his successor while simultaneously paving the way
for the succession. (COMMENT. The name that most often
comes up when contacts talk about a groomed successor is
former finance minister Kassory Fofana. END COMMENT).

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COMMENT
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10. (C) Koulibaly comes across as a thoughtful, analytical
observer of the political dynamic between the PM and the
President, and Guinean politics in general, despite his
nine-month hiatus. He was convinced that the current
government is useless and does not stand a chance of any real
reform efforts. Koulibaly was also adamant that Guinea's
best solution would be a coup d-etat of one sort or another
(either precipitated by the military or by civil society).
He held fast to this conviction even when A/DCM pointed out
the obvious risks to this approach, especially given the
recent military mutiny and clear lack of discipline within
Guinea's armed forces. END COMMENT.

BROKENSHIRE