UNIONS DIVIDED ON POLITICAL STRATEGY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000500

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2018
TAGS: ELAB PGOV PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: UNIONS DIVIDED ON POLITICAL STRATEGY

REF: CONAKRY 0448

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. Pessimistic but hoping for peace, union
leader Rabiatou's comments during a September 3 meeting with
A/DCM suggests that she does not have a clear idea of a
strategy to achieve change in the face of what she is
convinced will be fraudulent elections. Continued divisions
both between and within individual unions appear to have
undermined the support and influence of the
Unions-Intersyndicale, making them more of a marginal player
in Guinea's current political dynamic. However, despite
their relative decline in influence, the unions could still
serve as a catalyst for a broader civil movement in the
months to come. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) On September 3, A/DCM met with Mme Serah Rabiatou
Diallo, Secretary General of the National Confederation of
Guinean Workers (CNTG) and co-chair of the broader union
coalition, the Unions-Intersyndicale. Her co-leader, Dr.
Ibrahima Fofana of the Union of Guinean Workers (USTG) was
also supposed to be in the meeting, but showed up at the
Embassy gate just as the meeting was coming to a close.
Rabiatou said dismissively of Fofana "he's always late, you
can't control him." Continuing the trend of previous
meetings over the last several months, Rabiatou conveyed a
largely pessimistic view of Guinea's political situation.

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REACTIONS TO CALL FOR IMPEACHMENT
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3. (C) Referring to a public statement made earlier this
month in which Rabiatou declared the president unfit for
office and demanded his impeachment (reftel A),A/DCM asked
whether the unions had been subject to any political
backlash. Rabiatou said that most of the political parties
had privately congratulated her, as had several civil society
representatives. However, she said the Minister of Defense
told her that her statement was much too harsh and she needed
to "tone it down." The Minister of Reconciliation reportedly
told her something along the same lines. Rabiatou said that
neither the Supreme Court nor the National Assembly have
reacted to the statement despite the fact that she demanded
that these institutions initiate impeachment proceedings as
provided for by Guinean law.

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NO HOPE FOR ELECTIONS
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4. (C) Rabiatou was convinced that Guinea will not be able
to hold free and fair, transparent legislative elections
given the current political climate. According to Rabiatou,
the recent spate of presidential appointments represents the
ruling PUP's (Party for Unity and Progress) return to power.
She pointed out that many of the new appointees are simply
corrupt officials recycled from previous administrations.
Rabiatou added that the president has employed the same
strategy in previous elections - just as everything appears
to be advancing in a transparent way, "he sweeps in and
starts replacing key officials with PUP loyalists." Later,
she said that senior PUP party members are currently
traveling throughout the country to meet with the patriarchs
of influential families. "They will remind them that it is
the PUP that feeds them and then those families will not vote
against the PUP, in deference to their elders," she said.

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NO STRIKES, PLEASE
--------------


5. (C) According to Rabiatou, the unions received a letter
from Prime Minister Souare on September 3 in which he
requested that the unions consider refraining from labor
strike activity through the end of 2008. She said that the
unions would be meeting on September 4 to discuss the
request. Rabiatou said that unionists want peace just like
everyone else and are not necessarily against such an
agreement. She added that it would be a big risk for unions
to strike now given the socio-economic context. "People
cannot afford a strike, let alone the potential for
violence," she said. However, Rabiatou warned that
individual unions continue to consider targeted labor strikes
including in the health and mining sectors, and possibly in
the education sector later in the year if the GoG does not
follow through on certain promises.

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CONAKRY 00000500 002 OF 003


THE POPULATION WILL REACT
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6. (SBU) Expounding on the country's economic difficulties,
Rabiatou said that many people now cannot afford basic
necessities, a problem that will likely be exacerbated by the
financial demands of the holy month of Ramadan. According to
Rabiatou, civil servants did not receive their July salary
payment until August 25 (normally due July 31),and they have
yet to receive their salaries for August. "People are living
on nothing," she said.


7. (C) Rabiatou repeatedly said that if nothing changes, the
population will be forced to react. A/DCM pointed out that
many Guineans have been saying the same thing for more than a
year, but the population has not in fact reacted, despite
increasingly objectionable actions on the part of the
government. Rabiatou at first agreed, saying that people
have not been reacting because "someone goes through the
neighborhood handing out sacks of rice and money, and then
everyone calms down." When A/DCM suggested that this
strategy would probably continue, if in fact true, Rabiatou
said that the population will not accept to continue their
suffering. Later, she said that Guinea's high illiteracy
rate (more than 75%) means that people are poorly educated
and do not fully understand the implications of their actions
or the complexity of the country's political problems.


8. (C) Despite her continued affirmation of an eventual
"popular reaction," Rabiatou stated that violence would not
accomplish anything in Guinea. She said that people must
work together to find a peaceful solution. According to
Rabiatou, the population needs to join together to demand the
president's resignation, but that a national labor strike is
not the correct mechanism for making such a demand.

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INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY NEEDS TO INTERVENE
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9. (S) Rabiatou was particularly critical of international
institutions, including the U.S. Embassy. "People are
suffering and the international community is doing absolutely
nothing, they just keep supporting the government. You keep
saying that Guinea's problems must be solved by Guinea, but
it is clear that we are unable to do so," she said. Rabiatou
was convinced that nothing will move forward in Guinea as
long as Conte remains in power. She pointed out that the
president is seriously ill, but that he must be taking
medicines that are imported from the west to treat his
condition. "How hard would it be for you or France to tamper
with those medicines, send them back to Conte, and end the
problem right there?," she asked rhetorically.


10. (S) A Muslim, Rabiatou said that she has stopped going
to mosque. She said that all of the imams are praying for
the president's health, which she sees as hypocritical since
they should be praying for exactly the opposite if they truly
had the interests of the country and the population at heart.

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NO STRATEGY
--------------


11. (C) Several times during the discussion, A/DCM asked
Rabiatou if the unions and other members of civil society
have developed a strategy to deal with the situation, given
her conviction that both elections and further labor strikes
are unlikely to bring change. She did not have a clear
answer. In the end, she said: "The situation is complicated
and we are confused. We are trying to figure out what to do
in order to avoid bloodshed. A strike is not an option. We
need to make the population understand. We cannot wait for
elections. The army is not the option. The power is in the
streets."

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COMMENT
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12. (C) Although she has been increasingly pessimistic in
recent months, Rabiatou consistently advocates for peace.
Her counterpart, Dr. Ibrahima Fofana, is more often in favor
of a more aggressive approach, including a labor strike, as
are many other union leaders. The unions clearly remain
divided. Many of Rabiatou's comments suggest that she has
lost hope and is not sure of how to move forward. She kept
talking about an eventual popular reaction that would force
the president to resign, but then later comments indicated
that she may have some doubts about whether such a movement

CONAKRY 00000500 003 OF 003


could actually come together.


13. (C) There is a growing sense among both international
observers and domestic stakeholders alike that the unions are
losing their popular support, as well as their influence.
Their declining role likely stems from the continued
divisions both between and within individual unions.
However, if the unions come together to organize a national
labor strike similar to the one in early 2007, it is possible
that they could serve as a catalyst for a broader civil
movement even if people don't necessarily support the unions
or the strike itself. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE