UNIONS DIVIDED ON POLITICAL STRATEGY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000500 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2018 TAGS: ELAB PGOV PREL ASEC GV SUBJECT: UNIONS DIVIDED ON POLITICAL STRATEGY REF: CONAKRY 0448 Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Pessimistic but hoping for peace, union leader Rabiatou's comments during a September 3 meeting with A/DCM suggests that she does not have a clear idea of a strategy to achieve change in the face of what she is convinced will be fraudulent elections. Continued divisions both between and within individual unions appear to have undermined the support and influence of the Unions-Intersyndicale, making them more of a marginal player in Guinea's current political dynamic. However, despite their relative decline in influence, the unions could still serve as a catalyst for a broader civil movement in the months to come. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On September 3, A/DCM met with Mme Serah Rabiatou Diallo, Secretary General of the National Confederation of Guinean Workers (CNTG) and co-chair of the broader union coalition, the Unions-Intersyndicale. Her co-leader, Dr. Ibrahima Fofana of the Union of Guinean Workers (USTG) was also supposed to be in the meeting, but showed up at the Embassy gate just as the meeting was coming to a close. Rabiatou said dismissively of Fofana "he's always late, you can't control him." Continuing the trend of previous meetings over the last several months, Rabiatou conveyed a largely pessimistic view of Guinea's political situation. -------------- REACTIONS TO CALL FOR IMPEACHMENT -------------- ¶3. (C) Referring to a public statement made earlier this month in which Rabiatou declared the president unfit for office and demanded his impeachment (reftel A),A/DCM asked whether the unions had been subject to any political backlash. Rabiatou said that most of the political parties had privately congratulated her, as had several civil society representatives. However, she said the Minister of Defense told her that her statement was much too harsh and she needed to "tone it down." The Minister of Reconciliation reportedly told her something along the same lines. Rabiatou said that neither the Supreme Court nor the National Assembly have reacted to the statement despite the fact that she demanded that these institutions initiate impeachment proceedings as provided for by Guinean law. -------------- NO HOPE FOR ELECTIONS -------------- ¶4. (C) Rabiatou was convinced that Guinea will not be able to hold free and fair, transparent legislative elections given the current political climate. According to Rabiatou, the recent spate of presidential appointments represents the ruling PUP's (Party for Unity and Progress) return to power. She pointed out that many of the new appointees are simply corrupt officials recycled from previous administrations. Rabiatou added that the president has employed the same strategy in previous elections - just as everything appears to be advancing in a transparent way, "he sweeps in and starts replacing key officials with PUP loyalists." Later, she said that senior PUP party members are currently traveling throughout the country to meet with the patriarchs of influential families. "They will remind them that it is the PUP that feeds them and then those families will not vote against the PUP, in deference to their elders," she said. -------------- NO STRIKES, PLEASE -------------- ¶5. (C) According to Rabiatou, the unions received a letter from Prime Minister Souare on September 3 in which he requested that the unions consider refraining from labor strike activity through the end of 2008. She said that the unions would be meeting on September 4 to discuss the request. Rabiatou said that unionists want peace just like everyone else and are not necessarily against such an agreement. She added that it would be a big risk for unions to strike now given the socio-economic context. "People cannot afford a strike, let alone the potential for violence," she said. However, Rabiatou warned that individual unions continue to consider targeted labor strikes including in the health and mining sectors, and possibly in the education sector later in the year if the GoG does not follow through on certain promises. -------------- CONAKRY 00000500 002 OF 003 THE POPULATION WILL REACT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Expounding on the country's economic difficulties, Rabiatou said that many people now cannot afford basic necessities, a problem that will likely be exacerbated by the financial demands of the holy month of Ramadan. According to Rabiatou, civil servants did not receive their July salary payment until August 25 (normally due July 31),and they have yet to receive their salaries for August. "People are living on nothing," she said. ¶7. (C) Rabiatou repeatedly said that if nothing changes, the population will be forced to react. A/DCM pointed out that many Guineans have been saying the same thing for more than a year, but the population has not in fact reacted, despite increasingly objectionable actions on the part of the government. Rabiatou at first agreed, saying that people have not been reacting because "someone goes through the neighborhood handing out sacks of rice and money, and then everyone calms down." When A/DCM suggested that this strategy would probably continue, if in fact true, Rabiatou said that the population will not accept to continue their suffering. Later, she said that Guinea's high illiteracy rate (more than 75%) means that people are poorly educated and do not fully understand the implications of their actions or the complexity of the country's political problems. ¶8. (C) Despite her continued affirmation of an eventual "popular reaction," Rabiatou stated that violence would not accomplish anything in Guinea. She said that people must work together to find a peaceful solution. According to Rabiatou, the population needs to join together to demand the president's resignation, but that a national labor strike is not the correct mechanism for making such a demand. -------------- INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY NEEDS TO INTERVENE -------------- ¶9. (S) Rabiatou was particularly critical of international institutions, including the U.S. Embassy. "People are suffering and the international community is doing absolutely nothing, they just keep supporting the government. You keep saying that Guinea's problems must be solved by Guinea, but it is clear that we are unable to do so," she said. Rabiatou was convinced that nothing will move forward in Guinea as long as Conte remains in power. She pointed out that the president is seriously ill, but that he must be taking medicines that are imported from the west to treat his condition. "How hard would it be for you or France to tamper with those medicines, send them back to Conte, and end the problem right there?," she asked rhetorically. ¶10. (S) A Muslim, Rabiatou said that she has stopped going to mosque. She said that all of the imams are praying for the president's health, which she sees as hypocritical since they should be praying for exactly the opposite if they truly had the interests of the country and the population at heart. -------------- NO STRATEGY -------------- ¶11. (C) Several times during the discussion, A/DCM asked Rabiatou if the unions and other members of civil society have developed a strategy to deal with the situation, given her conviction that both elections and further labor strikes are unlikely to bring change. She did not have a clear answer. In the end, she said: "The situation is complicated and we are confused. We are trying to figure out what to do in order to avoid bloodshed. A strike is not an option. We need to make the population understand. We cannot wait for elections. The army is not the option. The power is in the streets." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) Although she has been increasingly pessimistic in recent months, Rabiatou consistently advocates for peace. Her counterpart, Dr. Ibrahima Fofana, is more often in favor of a more aggressive approach, including a labor strike, as are many other union leaders. The unions clearly remain divided. Many of Rabiatou's comments suggest that she has lost hope and is not sure of how to move forward. She kept talking about an eventual popular reaction that would force the president to resign, but then later comments indicated that she may have some doubts about whether such a movement CONAKRY 00000500 003 OF 003 could actually come together. ¶13. (C) There is a growing sense among both international observers and domestic stakeholders alike that the unions are losing their popular support, as well as their influence. Their declining role likely stems from the continued divisions both between and within individual unions. However, if the unions come together to organize a national labor strike similar to the one in early 2007, it is possible that they could serve as a catalyst for a broader civil movement even if people don't necessarily support the unions or the strike itself. END COMMENT. BROKENSHIRE