RPG OPPOSITION REMAINS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000486 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV SUBJECT: RPG OPPOSITION REMAINS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ELECTIONS ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The RPG opposition political party remains optimistic about legislative elections despite continued delays and the presidency's seemingly successful efforts to gradually restore controversial personalities to positions of power. Planning to fully participate in the elections, the party is already out in the provinces training its members to play active roles when the elections finally do take place. Comments on what is happening behind the scenes helps explain exactly why it is taking so long for Guinea to get its elections off the ground. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On August 27 A/DCM met with Dr. Mohammed Diane, the behind the scenes leader of the opposition Rally for the Guinean People (RPG) political party, which is considered to draw the majority of its support from the Malinke ethnic base in Upper Guinea. The RPG is generally regarded as the most radical of Guinea's four main opposition parties. The party's leader, Alpha Conde, has been criticized for his long absences from the country, although he has won the highest number of votes next to President Conte in earlier presidential elections. -------------- WHERE'S THE MINISTER? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Holding transparent, credible legislative elections is at the top of Dr. Diane's priority list, although he acknowledges that preparations are not moving along at a sufficient pace if they are to be held by the end of the year. He pointed out that a brand new Minister of Territorial Administration and Political Affairs was appointed in May, but that the new minister has yet to schedule a meeting with the political parties, despite the fact that he is supposed to be holding elections in just a few months. ¶4. (SBU) Dr. Diane noted that he and other leaders of political parties had spoken briefly with the new minister at an official event a few days earlier. According to Dr. Diane, the minister invited the party leaders into a private room to speak with them for thirty minutes. In response to a question about why he had not yet met with them, the minister reportedly said "I am not familiar with the file so I have not been able to schedule a meeting." -------------- THE DEVIL IN THE DETAILS -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Dr. Diane also commented on a recent meeting between the political parties and the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) in which the parties discussed government funding for political parties as provided by a law passed in May 2007. Dr. Diane said that the small political parties (of which there are now more than 50, many representing only a handful of people) dominated the discussion, claiming that all parties are entitled to an equal share of government funding for campaign activities. Visibly frustrated, Dr. Diane said that the law clearly delineates how the funding should be split based on certain criteria such as electoral participation. He added that the discussion exemplifies why the electoral process takes so long in Guinea. "The law clearly states the solution and yet we took hours to discuss the issue, the CENI decided to postpone a decision, and the government was not even represented," he said. -------------- THIS TIME WILL BE DIFFERENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) According to Dr. Diane, it is impossible to have elections that are "100% clean," but the fraud of the past will not be permitted in the current socio-political climate. He said that the violence in 2007 has caused a fundamental mentality shift that has emboldened the population. A/DCM questioned this claim, pointing out that despite frequent talk of a "mentality shift," the population has offered minimal resistance to the presidency's recent series of controversial decisions. Dr. Diane agreed, but said that if there is election fraud, people will react. ¶7. (SBU) Continuing on this theme, Dr. Diane mentioned a recent instance where the prefect of Kankan reported to MATAP that his prefecture contained 32 administrative districts for voting purposes. Dr. Diane said that in fact, the prefecture contains 41, and he and his party immediately spoke up to correct the discrepancy. He considered this misrepresentation a possibly deliberate attempt on the part CONAKRY 00000486 002 OF 002 of the government to introduce electoral fraud, an attempt that failed due to the RPG's vigilance. -------------- PREPARING THE FIELD -------------- ¶8. (SBU) A/DCM noted hearing grumblings from individual party members about possibly boycotting the elections, and asked whether the RPG is still preparing its campaign. Dr. Diane adamantly stated that the RPG "is absolutely going to participate in these elections because they are absolutely necessary." He added that elections represent the only potentially democratic solution to Guinea's problems. ¶9. (SBU) Dr. Diane said that the RPG has already started its electoral campaign process by conducting trainings for its members in the interior, which it has recently completed in Labe, Kankan, and N'Zerekore. He clarified that the RPG is training its members on campaigning techniques as well as roles and responsibilities as observers on election day. ¶10. (SBU) A/DCM asked about the RPG's strength in terms of party leadership, pointing out that Alpha Conde has not visited Guinea for more than a year. Dr. Diane said that Conde is currently in the U.S. for the democratic national convention, which he used as an opportunity to hold a meeting with the Guinean Diaspora in New York City last week. A/DCM asked how Alpha Conde can effectively represent the party, let alone the country, when he spends so little time in country. Dr. Diane said that Conde enjoys widespread popular support. He added that Conde should be returning to Guinea in October or November and that the warm welcome he is sure to receive will clearly illustrate how popular he is. -------------- ELECTIONS FOR CREDIBILITY -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Turning to recent political developments, A/DCM asked Dr. Diane for his impressions of the new government as well as the significance of recent changes. Dr. Diane said that the system is broken because "as long as Conte is there, it doesn't matter who the prime minister is." He added that this leadership crisis is why elections are so important. "The National Assembly is illegitimate - credible elections will give us at least one credible institution, and then we can move forward," he said. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Although there is some concern about the timing, the RPG remains optimistic about the upcoming legislative elections. However, the rash of new political appointments coming out of the presidency over the last few months could potentially undermine the electoral process. The fact that the new MATAP minister has yet to meet with the political parties when elections should be his number one priority suggests a lack of political will. On the issue of timing, the lengthy meeting between the political parties and the CENI illustrates exactly why preparations are behind schedule. The participants spent hours discussing an issue that should be relatively clear, yet the matter remains unresolved. END COMMENT. BROKENSHIRE