FRUSTRATED AND MARGINALIZED, GUINEA,S YOUTH ARE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000035

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ELAB PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: FRUSTRATED AND MARGINALIZED, GUINEA,S YOUTH ARE
UNDECIDED ABOUT POSSIBLE LABOR STRIKE

REF: CONAKRY 0029


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. During an Embassy hosted breakfast, 17
Conakry-based youth leaders shared their views on the current
political situation and the possibility of a nationwide labor
strike at the end of the month. Participants felt
marginalized by both the government and non-government
actors, repeatedly arguing that their interests are not
effectively represented. Many seemed disillusioned with the
unions in particular and saw them as yet another specialized
interest group. On the question of supporting a strike,
opinions were divided with some ready to strike tomorrow, and
most still deliberating within their own organizations.
However, it was clear that for these youth leaders, if they
do support a strike, it will likely only be in order to use
it as a mechanism for launching a broader protest against the
socio-political situation rather than as a simple labor
negotiation led by the unions. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On March 19, POLOFF hosted a breakfast discussion
with representatives from 17 different youth associations and
organizations based in the capital. Participants included
lawyers, several non-governmental organizations, and young
entrepreneurs, all of whom are well known for their active
civic involvement. Most of them come from strong educational
backgrounds, including two with master,s degrees earned in
the United States. Many also are gainfully employed, some
with their own businesses, and a few others working for
multinational mining companies. Two of the 17 participants
were women. Participants were passionate and animated as
they discussed Guinea,s current political situation and the
role of the country,s youth in the democratic process. Some
of them seemed to know each other already, but several
commented that it was the first time they had sat down
together as a group to discuss current issues.

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NO ONE REPRESENTS THE YOUTH
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3. (SBU) In response to a question about how well the
government and other actors, such as the political parties
and civil society, are representing youth interests,
participants unanimously agreed that no one currently speaks
for the country,s youth. Several participants commented on
how various organizations manipulate youths, often through
direct financial contributions, in order to generate support
for their own political objectives. One pointed out that the
youth are largely unemployed and lack the financial means to
effectively organize themselves, which makes them vulnerable
to outside influence. Another said that political actors,
especially political parties, only come to the youths when
they need support to get what they want. &They promise us
that they will represent us and then when they get what they
want, they forget about us,8 one said. Another added that
&we never see any youths on the elections ballots.8


4. (SBU) Several participants scoffed when the discussion
turned to the government, gesturing animatedly as they
complained about the Ministry of Youth, Culture, and Sports.
One said that the Ministry really only focuses on sports and
ignores the rest of it its job. Another said that the
Ministry should be able to coordinate youth representation
and activities, but government officials cannot even provide
an accurate list of registered youth associations.
Participants pointed out that the Ministry should have some
kind of operational plan for promoting youth interests, but
it does not. Others said that the government does not want
to facilitate greater cohesion among youth associations
because it does not want any &counterpoint8 to its
leadership. &This government does not encourage alternative
viewpoints; the door for free expression is closed,8 one
said.


5. (SBU) There was also some discussion regarding the youth
conference the government organized in Kindia in November

2007. One participant said that the conference had many
weaknesses, but it did succeed in creating a national
committee of youth that is in the process of formulating an
action plan. Others openly criticized the Kindia conference,
saying that participation was directed by the government and
highly selective.


6. (SBU) One of the two women participants piped up at one
point and said that if &we are weakly represented, it is our
own fault.8 She pointed out that the youths allow
themselves to be manipulated. According to her, the youths

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do not lack initiative, but they do lack the political will
to unify and constructively advocate for what it wants.

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TO STRIKE OR NOT TO STRIKE
--------------


7. (SBU) POLOFF asked participants whether there was more
support among the youths for a possible nationwide labor
strike towards the end of the month, in reference to the
March 31 union deadline (reftel). One representative
immediately said that they would not have supported a strike
in early January 2008, but they are ready to support it now.
&The situation is untenable and we are ready to do what is
necessary, more even than what was done in January and
February 2007,8 he said. Others were more circumspect. A
young vice-president of finance for Global Alumina (and
graduate of a U.S. master,s program) said that a strike is
not the answer, but that the political situation is very
tense. He said that the current consensus government was
built on the bodies of the dead, but that it has failed and
must leave. &What we need is a complete regime change,8 he
said. When POLOFF asked how he was proposing to get such a
change, he shrugged his shoulders and said he didn,t know,
but &a strike is not the answer and we are trying to figure
out what to do.8


8. (SBU) A representative from the business community spoke
up and said that his organization strongly supported the
unions during the 2007 strike. He pointed out that a few
hundred business enterprises are members of his organization
and they all closed their doors when the strike was called.
He said that his organization was not willing to support a
strike in early 2008, but that they are still deciding
whether they will support a strike now if it is called at the
end of the month.


9. (SBU) Another participant said that the country has
essentially returned to exactly where it was in 2006 and
2007, with no visible progress. He said that &we risk much
by going down this path, but we cannot continue to cross our
arms and do nothing.8

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LE CHANGEMENT
--------------


10. (SBU) Feeding off discussion of a possible strike,
participants talked at length about what kind of change the
country needs. Several pointed out that everyone keeps
talking about &le changement,8 but that no one group,
leader, or organization identifies it in the same way. A
female participant said that if change is defined as a simple
change of regime, there is no guarantee that the fundamental
problems plaguing the country will be addressed. She said
that a regime change would likely only result in a change of
leadership rather than the systemic change that is
desperately needed. According to her, the constitution needs
to be changed in order to achieve democratic progress.


11. (SBU) Several participants were highly critical of the
labor unions saying that the unionists have big egos and see
themselves as political entities, when in fact, they do not
really represent the general population. One pointed out
that during the civil unrest in 2007, he was present at a
tense negotiation and when he stood up to offer his comments,
he was asked if he belonged to a union, and when he said that
he did not, was told to sit down. He asked the group of
participants &are the unions the only ones who can say what
the country needs?8


12. (SBU) Other participants agreed that if there is a
strike, it will only be part of a larger popular movement for
political change. &If we let the unions manage this strike,
the country will burn,8 one said. &If we strike, it will
be against poverty and weak governance,8 another said.

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RESISTING ETHNOCENTRISM
--------------


13. (SBU) At various points in the discussion, participants
raised the issue of growing ethnic divisions. Several
commented on efforts by various organizations, the
government, and especially political parties, to manipulate
the youth according to ethnic backgrounds. One said that the
elder population has been actively fueling ethnic conflict.

CONAKRY 00000035 003 OF 003


Several participants said that Guinea has the potential to be
another Rwanda, with one saying &it will be much worse here
than in Rwanda.8 Others made similar comparisons to the
current situation in Kenya. There was a general consensus
that ethnic divisions needed to be avoided as they have the
potential to destroy the country. One said &when we hear
the elders speak, we are scared.8

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SEEKING UNITY
--------------


14. (SBU) Towards the end of the discussion, several
participants called for unity among various youth actors.
One said that they &must avoid being anyone,s puppets.8
They generally agreed that they all share the same concerns
and need to discuss a common strategy for advancing their
interests. Participants shared contact information and
agreed to participate in a follow-on meeting on March 28.

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WITH OR WITHOUT YOU
--------------


15. (SBU) In concluding the event, POLOFF told participants
that numerous political contacts repeatedly tell Embassy
officials that they have strong youth representation within
their ranks. POLOFF noted that the youth,s message that
morning was that the existing organizational structures do
not generally represent them very well, a comment that
participants vehemently agreed with. Noting that many
political actors are talking about the same things they are
and defining a strategy for achieving change, POLOFF
encouraged participants to speak up and ensure that their
voices are heard, pointing out that the democratic transition
process will likely continue to move forward, whether the
youth are actively participating or not.

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COMMENT
--------------


16. (SBU) The meeting participants represented a strong
cross-section of some of Conakry,s most active youth
leaders. As the discussion progressed, it was clear that
while many of them had not openly discussed politics with
each other before, they generally shared the same
dissatisfaction and frustration with both the government and
non-government actors. Several participants repeatedly
commented on the need for unity and coordination of efforts,
and later thanked the U.S. Embassy for facilitating a much
needed meeting.


17. (SBU) While participants generally agreed on the
underlying political and social problems, there were many
different viewpoints as to solutions to those problems.
Everyone agreed that the current regime, including the
consensus government, is ineffective. They also seemed to
believe that the leading non-government actors (namely the
unions, opposition political parties, and civil society) are
more likely to perpetuate the mistakes of the past rather
than offer up a workable solution for the future.
Participants were divided on the issue of a labor strike,
with most feeling that it is an inappropriate mechanism for
achieving their objectives. At the same time, there was a
sense from some that the current situation is intolerable and
they may support the strike if it called, if only to protest
in principle and start pushing for action. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE