FRUSTRATED AND MARGINALIZED, GUINEA,S YOUTH ARE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000035 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ELAB PREL KDEM ASEC GV SUBJECT: FRUSTRATED AND MARGINALIZED, GUINEA,S YOUTH ARE UNDECIDED ABOUT POSSIBLE LABOR STRIKE REF: CONAKRY 0029 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. During an Embassy hosted breakfast, 17 Conakry-based youth leaders shared their views on the current political situation and the possibility of a nationwide labor strike at the end of the month. Participants felt marginalized by both the government and non-government actors, repeatedly arguing that their interests are not effectively represented. Many seemed disillusioned with the unions in particular and saw them as yet another specialized interest group. On the question of supporting a strike, opinions were divided with some ready to strike tomorrow, and most still deliberating within their own organizations. However, it was clear that for these youth leaders, if they do support a strike, it will likely only be in order to use it as a mechanism for launching a broader protest against the socio-political situation rather than as a simple labor negotiation led by the unions. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On March 19, Poloff hosted a breakfast discussion with representatives from 17 different youth associations and organizations based in the capital. Participants included lawyers, several non-governmental organizations, and young entrepreneurs, all of whom are well known for their active civic involvement. Most of them come from strong educational backgrounds, including two with master,s degrees earned in the United States. Many also are gainfully employed, some with their own businesses, and a few others working for multinational mining companies. Two of the 17 participants were women. Participants were passionate and animated as they discussed Guinea,s current political situation and the role of the country,s youth in the democratic process. Some of them seemed to know each other already, but several commented that it was the first time they had sat down together as a group to discuss current issues. -------------- NO ONE REPRESENTS THE YOUTH -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In response to a question about how well the government and other actors, such as the political parties and civil society, are representing youth interests, participants unanimously agreed that no one currently speaks for the country,s youth. Several participants commented on how various organizations manipulate youths, often through direct financial contributions, in order to generate support for their own political objectives. One pointed out that the youth are largely unemployed and lack the financial means to effectively organize themselves, which makes them vulnerable to outside influence. Another said that political actors, especially political parties, only come to the youths when they need support to get what they want. &They promise us that they will represent us and then when they get what they want, they forget about us,8 one said. Another added that &we never see any youths on the elections ballots.8 ¶4. (SBU) Several participants scoffed when the discussion turned to the government, gesturing animatedly as they complained about the Ministry of Youth, Culture, and Sports. One said that the Ministry really only focuses on sports and ignores the rest of it its job. Another said that the Ministry should be able to coordinate youth representation and activities, but government officials cannot even provide an accurate list of registered youth associations. Participants pointed out that the Ministry should have some kind of operational plan for promoting youth interests, but it does not. Others said that the government does not want to facilitate greater cohesion among youth associations because it does not want any &counterpoint8 to its leadership. &This government does not encourage alternative viewpoints; the door for free expression is closed,8 one said. ¶5. (SBU) There was also some discussion regarding the youth conference the government organized in Kindia in November ¶2007. One participant said that the conference had many weaknesses, but it did succeed in creating a national committee of youth that is in the process of formulating an action plan. Others openly criticized the Kindia conference, saying that participation was directed by the government and highly selective. ¶6. (SBU) One of the two women participants piped up at one point and said that if &we are weakly represented, it is our own fault.8 She pointed out that the youths allow themselves to be manipulated. According to her, the youths CONAKRY 00000035 002 OF 003 do not lack initiative, but they do lack the political will to unify and constructively advocate for what it wants. -------------- TO STRIKE OR NOT TO STRIKE -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Poloff asked participants whether there was more support among the youths for a possible nationwide labor strike towards the end of the month, in reference to the March 31 union deadline (reftel). One representative immediately said that they would not have supported a strike in early January 2008, but they are ready to support it now. &The situation is untenable and we are ready to do what is necessary, more even than what was done in January and February 2007,8 he said. Others were more circumspect. A young vice-president of finance for Global Alumina (and graduate of a U.S. master,s program) said that a strike is not the answer, but that the political situation is very tense. He said that the current consensus government was built on the bodies of the dead, but that it has failed and must leave. &What we need is a complete regime change,8 he said. When Poloff asked how he was proposing to get such a change, he shrugged his shoulders and said he didn,t know, but &a strike is not the answer and we are trying to figure out what to do.8 ¶8. (SBU) A representative from the business community spoke up and said that his organization strongly supported the unions during the 2007 strike. He pointed out that a few hundred business enterprises are members of his organization and they all closed their doors when the strike was called. He said that his organization was not willing to support a strike in early 2008, but that they are still deciding whether they will support a strike now if it is called at the end of the month. ¶9. (SBU) Another participant said that the country has essentially returned to exactly where it was in 2006 and 2007, with no visible progress. He said that &we risk much by going down this path, but we cannot continue to cross our arms and do nothing.8 -------------- LE CHANGEMENT -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Feeding off discussion of a possible strike, participants talked at length about what kind of change the country needs. Several pointed out that everyone keeps talking about &le changement,8 but that no one group, leader, or organization identifies it in the same way. A female participant said that if change is defined as a simple change of regime, there is no guarantee that the fundamental problems plaguing the country will be addressed. She said that a regime change would likely only result in a change of leadership rather than the systemic change that is desperately needed. According to her, the constitution needs to be changed in order to achieve democratic progress. ¶11. (SBU) Several participants were highly critical of the labor unions saying that the unionists have big egos and see themselves as political entities, when in fact, they do not really represent the general population. One pointed out that during the civil unrest in 2007, he was present at a tense negotiation and when he stood up to offer his comments, he was asked if he belonged to a union, and when he said that he did not, was told to sit down. He asked the group of participants &are the unions the only ones who can say what the country needs?8 ¶12. (SBU) Other participants agreed that if there is a strike, it will only be part of a larger popular movement for political change. &If we let the unions manage this strike, the country will burn,8 one said. &If we strike, it will be against poverty and weak governance,8 another said. -------------- RESISTING ETHNOCENTRISM -------------- ¶13. (SBU) At various points in the discussion, participants raised the issue of growing ethnic divisions. Several commented on efforts by various organizations, the government, and especially political parties, to manipulate the youth according to ethnic backgrounds. One said that the elder population has been actively fueling ethnic conflict. CONAKRY 00000035 003 OF 003 Several participants said that Guinea has the potential to be another Rwanda, with one saying &it will be much worse here than in Rwanda.8 Others made similar comparisons to the current situation in Kenya. There was a general consensus that ethnic divisions needed to be avoided as they have the potential to destroy the country. One said &when we hear the elders speak, we are scared.8 -------------- SEEKING UNITY -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Towards the end of the discussion, several participants called for unity among various youth actors. One said that they &must avoid being anyone,s puppets.8 They generally agreed that they all share the same concerns and need to discuss a common strategy for advancing their interests. Participants shared contact information and agreed to participate in a follow-on meeting on March 28. -------------- WITH OR WITHOUT YOU -------------- ¶15. (SBU) In concluding the event, Poloff told participants that numerous political contacts repeatedly tell Embassy officials that they have strong youth representation within their ranks. Poloff noted that the youth,s message that morning was that the existing organizational structures do not generally represent them very well, a comment that participants vehemently agreed with. Noting that many political actors are talking about the same things they are and defining a strategy for achieving change, Poloff encouraged participants to speak up and ensure that their voices are heard, pointing out that the democratic transition process will likely continue to move forward, whether the youth are actively participating or not. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶16. (SBU) The meeting participants represented a strong cross-section of some of Conakry,s most active youth leaders. As the discussion progressed, it was clear that while many of them had not openly discussed politics with each other before, they generally shared the same dissatisfaction and frustration with both the government and non-government actors. Several participants repeatedly commented on the need for unity and coordination of efforts, and later thanked the U.S. Embassy for facilitating a much needed meeting. ¶17. (SBU) While participants generally agreed on the underlying political and social problems, there were many different viewpoints as to solutions to those problems. Everyone agreed that the current regime, including the consensus government, is ineffective. They also seemed to believe that the leading non-government actors (namely the unions, opposition political parties, and civil society) are more likely to perpetuate the mistakes of the past rather than offer up a workable solution for the future. Participants were divided on the issue of a labor strike, with most feeling that it is an inappropriate mechanism for achieving their objectives. At the same time, there was a sense from some that the current situation is intolerable and they may support the strike if it called, if only to protest in principle and start pushing for action. END COMMENT. BROKENSHIRE