C O N F I D E N T I A L CONAKRY 000348


E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON SOCI ECOWAS GV
SUBJECT: G8 AMBASSADORS BRIEF U.N. AND ECOWAS ON POLITICAL
OUTLOOK IN GUINEA

REF: A. CONAKRY 318

B. CONAKRY 333


Classified By: ECONOFF T. SCOTT BROWN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The G8 ambassadors painted a bleak picture
of the Guinea's political outlook for the U.N. Office for
West Africa (UNOWA) and ECOWAS on Monday, July 7. The
Ambassadors recommended that ECOWAS set several benchmarks to
track the government's progress towards elections, and that
ECOWAS has a role to play in regional border security. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) The G8 Group, consisting of Ambassador Carter; the
Ambassadors of Britain, France, Germany, Spain; the European
Union delegate; and the UN Coordinator met with U.N. Special
Representative for West Africa (UNOWA), Said Djinnit, and the
ECOWAS Executive Secretary Mohamed Ibn Chambas on July 7 to
discuss Guinea's current political outlook. Djinnit and Ibn
Chambas said they were soliciting the views and advice of the
G8 ahead of meetings with GOG on Tuesday. Econoff
accompanied the Ambassador as notetaker.


3. (C) During the frank and open discussion, the G8
ambassadors conveyed many of the same conclusions they
discussed following the meeting with Finance Minister Dore on
June 23 (reftel). They touched on the weakness of Guinea's
government and institutions, military insubordination,
splintering of civil society, increase in drug and human
trafficking, and the poor prospects for elections in late

2008.


4. (C) The French Ambassador opined that the recent violence
between the police and the military showed people what civil
war in Guinea might look like, and reminded them of the
recent conflicts in Cote d'Ivoire and Liberia. He said that
President Conte would certainly remain in power if the people
are reluctant to take to the streets out of fear of prolonged
violence and bloodshed.


5. (C) The German Ambassador said that he viewed the current
government as a "government of predators" who seek only
personal gain at the expense of Guinea. He said that he
believes the government is not serious about holding
elections at all, as they have not mentioned elections in any
major political statements since taking office. He also
noted that before, Guineans believed that a "positive coup"
such as what occurred in Mali in 1991 and Mauritania in 2001
could help Guinea out of its current governance crisis.
However, it is clear that after the mutiny that no one has
faith in this approach.


6. (C) The ambassadors said that elections were essential in
improving Guinea's future, and encouraged the U.N. and ECOWAS
to hold the government to concrete benchmarks. On the
subject of national reconciliation, they said that a neutral
party should guide the discussion, noting that the Christian
Council of Guinea was perhaps the only group able to do this
in the country (reftel).


7. (C) Turning to the question of border security, the
ambassadors noted that ECOWAS should also improve the border
control capacity of Guinea's neighbors. Chambas stated that
the Mano River Union leaders, particularly the presidents of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, were concerned about the impact a
prolonged crisis would have on the region. Chambas agreed
with Ambassador Carter that the Union is not equipped to
manage its borders and that there may be a role for ECOWAS in
this context.


8. (SBU) The next day, Djinnit and Chambas met separately
with Prime Minister Souare, Foreign Minister Bah, union
leaders, and representatives of political parties. They
emphasized the need for regional security and stability,
restructuring the military and security forces, and a
national dialogue on reconciliation.


9. (C) COMMENT. During the meeting, it appeared that Djinnit
and Chambas took what the G8 ambassadors said to heart.
However, the short duration of their trip, along with the
fact that they did not meet with either the Minister of
Defense or the Minister of Security, raises the question of
how effective the mission really was. END COMMENT.

CARTER