PM ASKS AMBASSADOR FOR HELP, BUT NO CLEAR PLAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000306 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV ELAB ASEC GV SUBJECT: PM ASKS AMBASSADOR FOR HELP, BUT NO CLEAR PLAN Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. During his second meeting with the Ambassador, Guinea's new prime minister discussed the country's current security situation and ongoing political issues. He commented on the need to restore peace and security, and was optimistic that the GoG would soon be able to resolve the current problems with the military, the police, the teachers, and Customs. He repeatedly asked for financial assistance, but did not seem to have a clear plan for what he wants to accomplish. Although he mentioned elections several times, he did not seem to be all that interested in them. END COMMENT. ¶2. (U) Ambassador Carter met with Prime Minister Ahmed Tidiane Souare on June 19 to discuss Guinea's current political situation. The A/DCM and a senior LES from USAID accompanied the Ambassador. The Chief of Cabinet at the Ministry of Energy, who is a close friend of Souare's, also attended the meeting. This is the second time the Ambassador has met with Souare since the PM was officially sworn in on May 23. ¶3. (U) Referring to a June 18 public announcement made by the Joint Chief of Staff, General Camara, apologizing for the military's role in recent events, Ambassador Carter stressed that such communication is critical, and commended the PM for reaching out to the population. Souare thanked the Ambassador and said he had directed the General to make the announcement following a discussion with members of the government. ¶4. (U) The Ambassador commented on the current political situation, noting that the entire Guinean Government is essentially blocked because everyone is waiting for the appointment of the new cabinet. The PM said that the political situation is complex with many things happening at once. Noting the recent military mutiny, the teachers' strike, problems with the police and Customs, and his own appointment as destabilizing elements, Souare said that the most important thing is to guarantee peace and security. He assured the Ambassador that he is working to resolve these issues as soon as possible. ¶5. (C) According to Souare, issues with the military are almost completely resolved. He expressed deep concern over the mutiny and Claude Pivi "Coplan," but said that the GoG has a plan for dealing with him. On the police, the PM said ;that all of the police officers who had been arrested had already been released. He added that he expects the police to return to work as early as Friday. With respect to Customs, Souare said that everything has been resolved. He also said that his cabinet would be announced before the weekend. ¶6. (SBU) Souare said that the negotiations with teachers were advancing positively, and that he expected resolution of the remaining issues within the next few days. He said the key problem is related to the 12,000 contractors who are demanding permanent employment. Souare said the GoG plans to offer a mechanism for testing and permanently employing contractors, which should help bring the negotiations to a close. (COMMENT. There may be as many as 30,000 contractors, according to union sources. END COMMENT). ¶7. (SBU) The Ambassador asked Souare how he plans to address the budgetary issues related to the various promises being made to different groups such as the military and the teachers. Souare joked "I thought you were coming with a check." The Ambassador laughed, but pointed out that the USG is a major contributor to the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, which are effective mechanisms for assisting the Guinean Government. He added that US bilateral assistance to Guinea will always be managed through NGOs and that direct budget support is not and will not be programmed. Souare repeated this theme of needing a check several times throughout the rest of the conversation. He did not offer any plan as to how to address the budgetary issues. ¶8. (C) Although Souare mentioned elections several times during the course of the conversation, he never talked about them directly as a priority for his administration. Instead, he appeared to characterize elections as something the international community wants, and then linked them to his own objectives. For example, he asked for assistance in restoring security to the country, saying "if you want to have elections, we must preserve government institutions; we must have peace and security." Later, he brought up the GoG's demand for assistance in meeting Guinea's food crisis, CONAKRY 00000306 002 OF 002 saying "if you really want to have elections...you need to help us resolve the food issues, which are catastrophic (in the current political environment)." ¶9. (SBU) Regarding Guinea's food crisis, Souare said the international community needs to look closely at Guinea's plan and consider national needs. He emphasized that every Guinean needs food assistance, not just those in select rural groups. "Rice must also be distributed to Guinea's urban populations", he said. The Ambassador said that Guinea's food crisis is not a question of supply, but a problem of price. He emphasized that there is plenty of food in Guinea, but that people are having difficulty affording the price of rice. The Ambassador stated that the WFP plan to support 600,000 vulnerable people in the rural areas was an excellent one that had USG support. Souare pressed that the urban centers (read Conakry only) needed assistance in order to ensure social peace. On urban distribution, the Ambassador said that the international community would still want the GoG to identify vulnerable populations. He cautioned that it would be very difficult, and potentially destabilizing security wise, to try and distribute rice in Conakry. He did not or could not define which population groups would need assistance urban centers nor could he outline what type of distribution system the GoG would use. ¶10. (SBU) Responding to a question about his pending cabinet, Souare said that he realizes that his cabinet is the GoG's largest ever, but that a large government is needed to deal with what he characterized as the most complex situation in Guinea's history. According to Souare, Guinea's current problems started in 2007 when the government of consensus decided to have only 18 ministries. He said that a true government of consensus must include opportunities for all sectors of society (i.e. unions, political parties, civil society, youth, technocrats, etc.). Souare claimed that by expanding government, he is in fact creating a broader government of consensus. He stated that the new cabinet would be annouced very soon, probably before the weekend. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) The meeting was cordial and open. The PM said all the right things, but he came off as insincere. He appeared to have been primed by his friend from the Ministry of Energy (who had met with the Ambassador and A/DCM the previous day) in that he said exactly what he thought the Embassy wanted to hear. He seemed to have no interest in elections, but because he knew that the USG is keenly interested in seeing elections take place, he mentioned them frequently, but only as a linkage to his own priorities. At the same time, Souare did not seem to have any clear idea of what he wants to do. He returned several times to budgetary issues, essentially asking for a handout. The LES who attended the meeting, who is a long-time friend of Souare's, was disappointed. He commented "he was only looking for money; he had no big picture plan." END COMMENT. CARTER