REACTIONS FROM GUINEA'S INTERIOR REGARDING RECENT POLITICAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000294 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12598: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC GV SUBJECT: REACTIONS FROM GUINEA'S INTERIOR REGARDING RECENT POLITICAL EVENTS REF: CONAKRY 00212 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY. During an Embassy road trip the week of June 2, contacts shared mixed reactions to recent political developments in Guinea. Most everyone, including government officials and civil society, agreed that former Prime Minister Kouyate had to go. However, civil society representatives were divided as to whether or not the appointment of Dr. Ahmed Souare as the new prime minister violates the 2007 tripartite accords. In general, the population appears to be waiting to see what the new Prime Minister does before reacting. With respect to the military mutiny, many contacts were clearly disappointed that the mutineers had resorted to violence for narrowly defined, self-serving interests, suggesting that they would have been willing to support them if the mutineers had a broader political focus. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) During a trip to Boke, Sangaredi, Koundara, Labe and Mamou (spanning Maritime and Lower Guinea) the week of June 4-9, Asst Poloff met with local authorities, civil society, and youth associations to discuss the population's reaction to the recent political events in Guinea, and specifically the change in prime ministers and the ongoing military mutiny. -------------- "PRESIDENT CAN CHANGE GOVERNMENT IF HE WANTS" -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The Prefect of Boke, Keita Mamadou, reported all was calm and normal in Boke during the recent political turmoil in Conakry. When asked his opinion about the appointment of a new prime minister, Mr. Mamadou said that "the President is the head of state, and if he wants to change the government, he can do that." He added that this change will not impact him directly as he is appointed by the President, explaining that while the Prime Minister recommends the Prefects, the President ultimately signs the decree. The Prefect also commented on the military mutiny, saying that there were no military protests in Boke. He added that he appreciates the decisions the President made to appease the mutineers, which put an end to the mutiny. ¶4. (SBU) The Governor of Boke, Siafa Beavogui, was more neutral. He stressed that he was part of the committee that wrote Guinea's constitution and that the new prime minister should abide by it. According to the Governor, a civic "catastrophe" similar to events in neighboring countries will not happen in Guinea because Guineans 
will stop before it gets out of hand. He said that Guinea has "three-day crises" that are largely "bluffing" politics. The Governor added that he knows people keep bringing up ethnicity as a potential issue, but that it cannot be a problem in Guinea because all the ethnic groups are inter-related. -------------- "PEOPLE WANTED A NEW PRIME MINISTER" -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Several hours north of Boke on Guinea's border with Senegal, in Koundara, the Secretary General of the prefecture, Mamadou Allou Diallo, confirmed that everything remained calm and normal in Koundara during the military mutiny, adding that people are generally far more concerned with the upcoming farming season than politics in Conakry. Mr. Diallo said that according to the constitution of Guinea, it is up to the President to appoint positions in the government. He reported hearing the decree read over the radio, but said he had not heard anything about the new prime minister's priorities. According to Mr. Diallo, the people of Koundara wanted a new Prime Minister, and are now waiting to see what Prime Minister Souare will do. ¶6. (SBU) The Mayor of Koundara, Elhadj Abdoulaye Boiro, said that former Prime Minister Kouyate's appointment last year gave hope to the population. However, Mr. Boiro said the population in Koundara wanted a chane in prime ministers because Prime Minister Kouyat did not deliver on his promises, saying that peole used the price of rice, which has more than dubled during Kouyate's administration, as an indcator of his failure. Mr. Boiro added that the ppulation is waiting to see what the new Prime Miniter does before they form an opinion. The Mayor lso commented on the military mutiny the previou week, saying that the people did not support th military mutiny because the mutineers chose only o make demands that benefited the military. He sid that had the mutineers made demands that wouldhave benefited all Guineans, they would have recived a great deal of support from the population. -------------- MILITARY ACTED SELFISLY -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Asst Poloff also held political discussions with members of a youth association in Koundara. Mamadou Saidou Balde, Secretary CONAKRY 00000294 002 OF 003 General of the Association de Jeune Pour le Dveloppent de Badiar, said that the former prime minister could not do anything for the people of Guinea because he was blocked by the President. He did however acknowledge some of Kouyate's accomplishments, such as progress with the international finance institutions and increased foreign investment. Other members agreed with Mr. Balde, saying that rivalry between the President and Prime Minister is the reason Kouyate was unable to effect change. Mr. Balde said that he preferred former Prime Minister Kouyate to Prime Minister Souare, because Prime Minister Souare is part of President Conte's corrupt administration. Mr. Balde also commented on the military mutiny, saying that "the population initially thought the mutineers cared about the livelihood of Guinean people, but quickly realized they only cared about themselves." ¶8. (SBU) The President of Koundara's Civil Society Council, Ibrahima Diakite, told Asst Poloff that if the President thought the former prime minister was failing, Conte should have convened the signatories to the 2007 tripartite accords to decide on an appropriate replacement. Mr. Diakite said that while firing Prime Minister Kouyate was a clear breach of the accords, the lack of reaction from the population illustrates that people felt Kouyate had failed to deliver on his promises. He added that people are now waiting to see who the new PM nominates to serve in his cabinet. ¶9. (SBU) The members of the Civil Society Council were clearly disappointed in the military mutineers. One member said that the "military are supposed to protect the people, and instead they were attacking them." Another said that while mutineers are getting millions of GnF and cheap rice, the people of Guinea continue to suffer, commenting that the mutineers' actions are "sinful". Mr. Diakite said that had the mutineers not been selfish in their demands, they would have had support from the population. -------------- "COUNTRY AGREES WITH APPOINTMENT OF A NEW PRIME MINISTER" -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Moving into Middle Guinea, the Governor of Labe, Elhadj Ibrahima Sory Diabate, said that all has been calm in Labe because "people appreciate the appointment of a new Prime Minister," and are waiting to see what he does. He added that in his opinion the appointment of a new PM represents hope for Guinea. Regarding the military mutiny, Mr. Diabate said that the "population understands the legitimacy of their demands, however the people do not support their acts of violence." ¶11. (SBU) Asst Poloff met separately with the Prefect of Labe, Elhadj Ibrahima Balde, who said that he does not know the rationale for Kouyate's dismissal, but that the President can do what he wants with his administration. He said that "the lack of protests across Guinea illustrate that the whole country agrees with the appointment of a new prime minister." He added that he knows Prime Minister Souare well and his educational, technical and administrative abilities will be good for Guinea. When asked about the military mutiny, Mr. Balde said that the mutiny is an outcome of years of recruiting people who are involved in malicious behavior and are undisciplined. -------------- ETHNIC MOTIVES BEHIND CHANGE IN PRIME MINISTERS -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Building upon Econoff's meeting (reftel) with the Prefect of Mamou Safioulaye Bah on May 21, Asst Poloff asked about the population of Mamou's reaction to the recent events. Mr. Bah said that everything has been calm in Mamou, and that the population is waiting to see what the new Prime Minister does. Mr. Bah also expressed his thoughts on the role of ethnicity in the change of prime ministers. He said that President Conte is using ethnicity as a tactic to remain in power, appointing a Peuhl as Prime Minister because it is usually the Peuhl communities that protest and spark civil unrest. He said that is the reason only a few areas, Kankan (Upper Guinea) and Matoto (Conakry) for example (considered predominately Malinke),experienced unrest when Prime Minister Souare was appointed. Mr. Bah also briefly commented on the military mutiny saying that his military guards are no longer coming to work now that they have their money. He added that the President set a very dangerous precedent by meeting all of the mutineers' demands. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Government officials, most of whom were appointed by former Prime Minister Kouyate, claimed to support the President's decision to install a new prime minister. However, most are not seen as Conte loyalists and may lose their posts under the new administration, despite their assurances to the contrary. Like the CONAKRY 00000294 003 OF 003 population, they too are waiting to see what the new prime minister does. ¶14. (SBU) Although political opinions in the interior sometimes do not reflect those of the capital, it is clear that the residents of Maritime and Middle Guinea are in sync with Conakry when it comes to the appointment of a new prime minister and the ongoing military mutiny. The population appears to be in "wait and see" mode, watching the new prime minister and looking to his cabinet as an indication of what his priorities (and his allegiances) might be. Comments about the mutiny echo those heard recently in Conakry. Many people seem to be disappointed with the mutineers' narrow focus, indicating that they would have been willing to support the military's methods if the objective was more political, and broadly defined. END COMMENT. CARTER