COMMENTS FROM FORMER PRIME MINISTER DIALLO, HEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000237 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV SUBJECT: COMMENTS FROM FORMER PRIME MINISTER DIALLO, HEAD OF UFDG OPPOSITION REF: A. CONAKRY 0219 ¶B. CONAKRY 0007 ¶C. CONAKRY 0224 - 0229 ¶D. CONAKRY 0231 Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. SUMMARY. Former Prime Minister Cellou Diallo, who is also the current president of the UFDG opposition political party, says he will support the new PM as long as he commits to continued progress towards improved governance, legislative elections, and economic reforms. He was highly critical of the former prime minister who he said failed to define a clear program. Cellou likely knows more than he was willing to say, but he shared his views on the presidency, the prime minister, the current military mutiny, and elections. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On May 28, Poloff met with former Prime Minister Cellou Dallein Diallo at his private residence, which also serves as the headquarters of his opposition political party, the Union of Guinean Democratic Forces (UFDG). Also present was Aliou Conde, Secretary General of the party and a former minister of transportation during Cellou Diallo's administration. -------------- VIEWS ON THE NEW PRIME MINISTER -------------- ¶3. (SBU) When asked about his views on the current political situation and the appointment of a new prime minister (reftel A),Cellou said that the UFDG had issued a declaration that makes his position clear. He said he is looking for the PM to make concrete progress towards improved governance, legislative elections within the targeted timeframe, and continued economic reforms. Cellou said that if the PM demonstrates his commitment to these priorities, the UFDG will support him. He added that members of his party will not accept to be appointed to Souare's administration if the PM appears to have other priorities. ¶4. (C) Cellou was close-mouthed when it came to commenting on Souare in more personal terms, despite the fact that they are considered friends, and that Cellou is responsible for bringing Souare into government since he appointed him as his Minister of Mines. (COMMENT. Souare also distanced himself from Cellou towards the end of Cellou's administration, and was then appointed as the Minister of Higher Education when a new government was formed under former Secretary General of the Presidency Fode Bangorah. END COMMENT). ¶5. (C) He was equally close-mouthed as to possible reasons for appointing Souare as PM. Cellou told Poloff that the appointment is a reflection of the president's confidence in Souare, adding "I have no idea what criteria he was looking at or what his motivations were." Cellou emphasized that former Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate had to be dismissed because he wasn't doing the job, but that Kouyate's dismissal is a separate issue from that of who was chosen as the new PM. When Poloff asked whether Souare may have been chosen in part because of his ethnicity (he is a Peuhl),given rumored concerns about possible efforts to divide the population along ethnic lines, Cellou said "I am Peuhl too, but that is not a selection criterion for being appointed prime minister." Poloff also asked whether Cellou thought that members of Conte's entourage may have been behind Souare's appointment. He said that the president listens to many people and then makes a decision. -------------- KOUYATE HAD TO GO -------------- ¶6. (C) With respect to the consensus government, Cellou was eager to discuss Kouyate's failures. According to Cellou, Kouyate failed miserably and the president had no choice but to replace him. He said that Kouyate continually made promises right and left, but never considered whether or not he could keep those promises. As an example, he mentioned Kouyate's promise to improve the power supply in Conakry. "He made the promise, and then told the power company to buy more fuel, run the generators, and give the people power. He didn't think about the fact that people refuse to pay for electricity, which means that he couldn't sustain the policy." Cellou commented that Kouyate did not have the necessary experience to effectively govern the country. CONAKRY 00000237 002 OF 003 ¶7. (C) Poloff asked Cellou about perceived political constraints in working with the presidency, and whether Souare may be less constrained given his closer relationship with Conte. Cellou scoffed and said that compared to when he was prime minister, Kouyate was not constrained at all. "The PM's situation now is nothing like what we were up against years ago," he said. He added that the president is not interested in governing the country. ¶8. (C) When Poloff asked about potential blockages from the president's entourage, Cellou said again that the situation is completely different than it was before. He pointed out that Kouyate had the freedom to appoint his own government, all the way down to governors, prefects, and sous-prefects, a freedom none of predecessors enjoyed. According to Cellou, previous PMs were blocked by Conte cronies who were also part of the cabinet, but that the small group around Conte now is actually outside the government, which makes the situation more manageable. He acknowledged that the president's entourage can still cause problems, mentioning the president's fabled New Year's speech (reftel B),but that in general, they are irrelevant. ¶9. (C) According to Cellou, Kouyate's principal failure was that he lacked direction. "He failed to put forth a clear program, a direction, and then execute it," he said. Cellou said that if Souare wants to succeed, he needs to have a defined program and then work towards achieving it. -------------- MILITARY MUTINY - 1000 QUESTIONS -------------- ¶10. (C) Turning to the ongoing military mutiny (reftels C and D),Poloff asked whether this latest mutiny represents a departure from those of the past. Cellou said the whole thing is quite "curious." When asked to clarify, he said that he finds it strange that the military is mutinying just a few days after a new prime minister was sworn in rather than waiting to see what changes the new government will bring. "I have a 1000 questions," he told Poloff. "Why General Diallo? Why now?," he added. According to Cellou, the military is poorly managed. He said that at least since 1996, the military has developed into an undisciplined institution in which junior officers dictate how the Ministry is run. "The soldiers should have absolutely no say in who is appointed as minister of defense," he said, "but this is the third time they have successfully mutinied and had the minister fired." ¶11. (C) With respect to whether the current situation is different from those of the past, Cellou said that the current mutiny does not seem all that different from ones he has seen before. He pointed out that the 1996 mutiny was initially organized in order to demand the dismissal of the defense minister. When the mutineers obtained their initial objective, they started making additional demands, until the mutiny turned into a coup d'etat. (COMMENT. In 1996, the military attacked the Presidential Palace and took President Conte into custody. However, no one stepped up to take over the presidency, so they eventually released Conte after the GoG granted concessions. END COMMENT.) -------------- ELECTIONS - FOCUSING ON THE DIASPORA -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Poloff mentioned recent Embassy trips into the interior and the apparent lack of preparations, and in some cases, interest, in upcoming legislative elections. Cellou shrugged his shoulders and said "once we start campaigning and informing people, that will change." Poloff acknowledged that political parties cannot legally begin campaigning until a few weeks before elections, but asked if the UFDG has been traveling in the interior of the country. Cellou said that he has been traveling to neighboring countries to speak with the Guinean diaspora, but that he has not yet traveled within Guinea. ¶13. (SBU) Poloff also noted the apparent passivity in some parts of the country with respect to elections, saying that although people seem to want elections, they are not actively pushing to have them in a timely, transparent way. Cellou said that political parties are responsible for informing the voters and that everything will fall into place once the political campaigns get underway. Poloff stressed that civil society has a critical role to play in elections education, and that they should be the primary voices for voter CONAKRY 00000237 003 OF 003 education. Cellou nodded his head, but did not look like he agreed. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (C) Cellou guards information closely. His refusal to comment on the new prime minister and his claimed ignorance as to the circumstances around his appointment could mean that Cellou really is outside the current political nexus, and simply uninformed. However, it is more likely that he is right in the middle of it. In the past, Cellou has said that he is interested in becoming president, and the recent turn of events puts him in a better position to achieve that goal. He may have fallen out of favor with the president, but he is still well connected, especially within the Peuhl community. He may very well know much more than he lets on. END COMMENT. CARTER