C O N F I D E N T I A L CONAKRY 000233

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV PMIL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: EMBASSY CONAKRY - SITUATION REPORT 6

REF: A. CONAKRY 0223 - 0229

B. CONAKRY 0231

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) Embassy sources report that mutineers have modified
their initial demands to the Guinean Government (GoG) and
have given a 12:00 deadline for meeting those demands.
Mutineers are now reportedly insisting on immediate payment
of the promised 5 million GnF to each soldier, rather than
receiving the money in installments, as was initially agreed
upon yesterday. With approximately 32,000 soldiers, the
total cost to the Guinean Government is estimated at $35
million.


2. (C) The mutineers have also added new demands to their
initial list. They are reportedly insisting that the former
Minister of Defense, General Baillo Diallo, be turned over to
their custody, in exchange for Deputy Chief of Staff General
Mamadou Sampil Camara, who is still be held by the mutineers
at Camp Alpha Yaya. In addition, the mutineers have demanded
the Guinean Government name a new Minister of Defense, and
fire approximately 35 senior officers.


3. (C) Although the mutineers reportedly set a 12:00 noon
deadline for meeting these demands, which has already passed,
they did not make any specific threats should the demands not
be met.


4. (C) COMMENT: These demands come after a night of
celebrating that likely included heavy drinking, which could
be affecting their judgment today. On the other hand, the
push for additional concessions could indicate that they are
becoming emboldened after having their initial demands
quickly satisfied. It is unlikely that the GoG will be able
to come up with $35 million in cash to pay the soldiers, but
there may be some room for negotiation on this point. It is
unlikely that the GoG will turn over the former minister of
defense. The deadline has passed, but the situation remains
calm. END COMMENT.
CARTER