EMBASSY CONAKRY - SITUATION REPORT 6

C O N F I D E N T I A L CONAKRY 000233 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2018 TAGS: PGOV PMIL ASEC GV SUBJECT: EMBASSY CONAKRY - SITUATION REPORT 6 REF: A. CONAKRY 0223 - 0229 ¶B. CONAKRY 0231 Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) Embassy sources report that mutineers have modified their initial demands to the Guinean Government (GoG) and have given a 12:00 deadline for meeting those demands. Mutineers are now reportedly insisting on immediate payment of the promised 5 million GnF to each soldier, rather than receiving the money in installments, as was initially agreed upon yesterday. With approximately 32,000 soldiers, the total cost to the Guinean Government is estimated at $35 million. ¶2. (C) The mutineers have also added new demands to their initial list. They are reportedly insisting that the former Minister of Defense, General Baillo Diallo, be turned over to their custody, in exchange for Deputy Chief of Staff General Mamadou Sampil Camara, who is still be held by the mutineers at Camp Alpha Yaya. In addition, the mutineers have demanded the Guinean Government name a new Minister of Defense, and fire approximately 35 senior officers. ¶3. (C) Although the mutineers reportedly set a 12:00 noon deadline for meeting these demands, which has already passed, they did not make any specific threats should the demands not be met. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: These demands come after a night of celebrating that likely included heavy drinking, which could be affecting their judgment today. On the other hand, the push for additional concessions could indicate that they are becoming emboldened after having their initial demands quickly satisfied. It is unlikely that the GoG will be able to come up with $35 million in cash to pay the soldiers, but there may be some room for negotiation on this point. It is unlikely that the GoG will turn over the former minister of defense. The deadline has passed, but the situation remains calm. END COMMENT. CARTER