EMBASSY CONAKRY - SITUATION REPORT 5

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000231 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2018 TAGS: PGOV PMIL ASEC GV SUBJECT: EMBASSY CONAKRY - SITUATION REPORT 5 REF: A. CONAKRY 0224 ¶B. CONAKRY 0225 ¶C. CONAKRY 0226 ¶D. CONAKRY 0227 ¶E. CONAKRY 0228 Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Soldiers were celebrating into the night yesterday after winning government concessions to all mutineer demands. Celebratory activities included intermittent firing of guns into the air, some armed muggings, and looting of several businesses. The media reports that at least three people have been killed, and 30 wounded. The situation this morning appears relatively calm, although there is a heightened sense of caution amongst citizens. One contact visited the Ambassador yesterday evening and provided some useful insights into what may be happening behind the scenes. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) After the Guinean Government (GoG) conceded to all of the mutineers' demands around 15:30 on May 27, there were still reports of intermittent gunfire into the night, as soldiers fired into the air to celebrate their victory. Sources have confirmed that gas stations in Matoto and Tannerie were looted by soldiers, while unconfirmed reports indicate that Total gas stations in Camayenne and Enco 5 were similarly looted (all four stations are located in Conakry). Embassy has not received any reports of warehouse lootings, although there have been unconfirmed reports of some looting of smaller shops. Conakry's largest open air market, Medina, was closed yesterday. The media has reported that at least three people were killed and 30 wounded over the last few days. ¶3. (SBU) There have been no reports of gunfire this morning and the city appears calm. Many gas stations remain closed and cars are lined up waiting for fuel. Medina market remains closed. There is less traffic on the road, but citizens generally appear to be going about business as usual, albeit with some caution. The French School and a French pre-school (which several Embassy children attend) are closed through Thursday. The American School is open. ¶4. (U) Prime Minister Ahmed Tidiane Souare appeared on the national news network, Radio Television Guinean (RTG) at 20:30 on May 27 to announce the results of the negotiations with the mutineers. He did not provide any detailed information about the mutiny itself, but confirmed that the GoG had agreed to the following demands: release of all soldiers detained for alleged human rights abuses in early 2007; dismissal of the Minister of Defense; payment of 5 million GnF to every soldier; and continued negotiations over rice subsidies for soldiers. In addition, he stated that the mutineers would not be arrested. He also noted mutineers' demands to dismiss the Chief of Staff and other high ranking officers, and said that the GoG would continue to negotiate this point. He did not name a new Minister of Defense. ¶5. (S) A prominent youth leader who is well connected to the Peuhl community stopped by the Ambassador's residence yesterday evening for about 30 minutes. Visibly worried, Contact told the Ambassador that he is deeply concerned about what he is hearing from members of the president's entourage. He said that the presidency believes that former Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate may be implicated in the military mutiny. Contact added that Kouyate was apparently planning to leave the country yesterday, but that the new PM and the President's cronies were going to prevent him from boarding the aircraft. (COMMENT. The only international flight on Tuesday evenings is to Morocco. END COMMENT). ¶6. (S) According to Contact, Kouyate is very close to a woman identified as Kadiatou, who is Guinean, but currently in Mali. When the Ambassador asked why Contact thought that Kouyate may have been involved in the mutiny, Contact said that Kadiatou knew that General Baillo Diallo's (the dismissed defense minister) house was going to be looted and burned before it happened yesterday afternoon. Contact questioned how someone living in Mali could have access to such a specific detail without being connected to someone close to the mutiny. In Contact's opinion, that connection could have been Kouyate. However, he added that regardless of whether or not Kouyate is involved, the president perceives him as involved. ¶7. (S) Contact also told Ambassador that the president is only appeasing the mutineers, but has no intention of actually meeting their demands. Instead, Contact said that CONAKRY 00000231 002 OF 002 once the situation calms down, the president's entourage will identify the leaders of the mutiny and simply "take them out." He said that there will be no arrests, only executions. According to Contact, the president said "just let things calm down and I will go after them." ¶8. (S) When asked about possible personalities involved, Contact said that aside from the president and the new PM, Fode Bangorah and Ousmane Camara are central actors. According to Contact, "these guys don't care about anything, they just want power." From the mutineers' side, he identified Biro Conde and Daida Camara as possible leaders. (COMMENT. Embassy does not yet have any additional information on these identified individuals, other than the former Secretary General of the President, Fode Bangorah. END COMMENT). ¶9. (S) For Contact, one of the more concerning elements of Guinea's evolving political situation is a growing ethnic dynamic. With Souare's appointment as PM (a Peuhl),he said that many people are encouraging ethnic tensions between the Peuhls and the Malinkes. (COMMENT. The former PM is Malinke). -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (S) The situation remains calm although people seem to be more cautious than usual. However, the apparently successful mutiny raises a number of concerns about Guinea's current political dynamic. The fact that the military was able to stage a relatively organized mutiny with significant backing suggests that the military brass no longer has any control over the rank and file officers. It also suggests that someone higher up, either from within the military or from outside, was involved. We have yet to see the civil society reaction to the concessions granted, but the release of alleged human rights violators is likely to be inflammatory. The situation remains fluid. END COMMENT. CARTER