EMBASSY CONAKRY - SITUATION REPORT 4

C O N F I D E N T I A L CONAKRY 000228 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2018 TAGS: PGOV ASEC PMIL GV SUBJECT: EMBASSY CONAKRY - SITUATION REPORT 4 REF: A. CONAKRY 0227 ¶B. CONAKRY 0219 Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) After continued incidents of sporadic gunfire in Camp Alpha Yaha despite the removal of General Baillo Diallo as Minister of Defense, the GoG appears to have given in to all of the mutineers' demands (reftel A). ¶2. (C) Contacts report that the GoG has agreed to pay each soldier the 5 million GnF (approximately $1,250) remaining from the "Bulletin Rouge," in five monthly installments of 1 million GnF each. These payments will be made to all soldiers, including the 5400 plus new recruits who were not in service during the Bulletin Rouge period. ¶3. (C) In addition, the GoG has reportedly agreed to release some 200 prisoners, most of whom are likely military, who have been detained for over a year for alleged human rights abuses committed during the period of civil unrest in early ¶2007. ¶4. (C) With respect to rice subsidies for soldiers, the GoG reportedly agreed to discuss the issue at a later date. However, contacts indicate that the GoG "agreed in principle" to lower the price by increasing the subsidy. ¶5. (C) COMMENT. Now that the GoG has addressed their financial demands, the mutineers are likely to quiet down, as they did during a similar mutiny in May 2007. However, they will have a keen interest in who is appointed as the new Minister of Defense, and a controversial appointment could spark further military unrest. ¶6. (C) This military mutiny comes at a time when political and economic tensions are already high in Guinea. The dismissal of the consensus prime minister (reftel B),the pending appointment of a new government, a looming food crisis, and the promised liberation of alleged human rights abusers are all factors that contribute to a high degree of general uncertainty. END COMMENT. CARTER