FULANI VILLAGERS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ECONOMY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000203 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON KDEM ASEC GV SUBJECT: FULANI VILLAGERS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ECONOMY THAN ELECTIONS ¶1. SUMMARY. A recent road trip into villages throughout Middle Guinea reveals that villagers just thirty minutes off the main road are unaware that the Guinean Government is organizing legislative elections in six months. Villagers were generally preoccupied with basic cost of living issues and spoke of elections only in vague, hopeful terms. Most people agreed that Guinea's political and economic situation is worse now than ever before, for which they blame Prime Minister Kouyate, but did not seem to see any clear solution in sight. END SUMMARY. ¶2. On May 8 and 9, Poloff visited five different Fulani (a Guinean ethnic group also known as Peuhl) villages between Mamou and Labe in order to get a sense of villagers' perspectives on upcoming legislative elections, the economy, and Guinea's political situation. In a small village located directly on the main road, Poloff met with a man who claimed to be a member of the ruling Party for Unity and Progress (PUP),and the recently appointed president of the local electoral commission. Another stop was a weekly market that straddled the main road, attracting villagers from throughout the prefecture, where Poloff chatted with a gathering of several elderly gentlemen. Poloff also visited three small villages located between 30 to 60 minutes outside of the urban center of Labe, via rough dirt roads. In one village, more than 40 men gathered after evening prayers to discuss their views. In another village, Poloff met with three middle-aged farmers, who were also brothers, and their grandfather, on their shared family compound. -------------- THINGS ARE WORSE NOW THAN BEFORE -------------- ¶3. Without exception, villagers agreed that Guinea's current political and economic situation is worse now than it was in 2006 and early 2007. Many blamed Prime Minister Kouyate, who they said has failed to make any meaningful progress towards improved governance. The PUP member outside of Pita told Poloff that the government is completely blocked. When asked who is responsible for the lack of progress, he said "I can't say at my level, all we see is that the system is not working." A village elder outside of Labe said "there has been no change, nothing has changed." Other villagers told Poloff that no one is content, but they continue to hope for change. In another village, farmers said that people initially had great confidence and hope in Kouyate, but that this sentiment has dissipated in response to unfulfilled promises. -------------- FEELING THE ECONOMIC PINCH -------------- ¶4. Cost of living issues took center stage during village discussions. At the market gathering, elders told Poloff that a single "measure" of rice used to cost about $.02, but now costs closer to $.66, while fornio (a local grain) has increased from $.11 to $.56. They also said that dried fish is becoming exorbitantly expensive at $2.22/measure. When asked how people are coping with the prices, the elders said that the villagers have been able to tolerate the prices so far, but that they will no longer be able to do so once the rainy season starts (usually in June). ¶5. The PUP representative said that the rising prices are particularly painful and he had "never seen it like this." In another village, elders said that everyone is preoccupied with the high cost of living, but that the government is not doing anything to offer economic relief. Farmers living on a multiple-family compound told Poloff that they can no longer make ends meet and have already started cutting back on consumption. They said that they are only doing subsistence farming, but that it is not enough to support their families, and they can no longer afford to buy staple goods at the same rate. One farmer pointed out that food itself is not the only issue, saying that it used to cost $.44 to transport a bag of rice from Labe to the village, but that the price of the trip has doubled, and now costs about $1.11. ¶6. When asked why they thought prices were rising, most villagers said that they are aware that world prices are increasing, which is impacting local markets. However, they all thought that the Guinean Government should be doing more to alleviate economic pressures. The PUP representative told Poloff that the government's recent export ban is an excellent initiative that will bring food prices down. When Poloff asserted that an export ban is not sound economic CONAKRY 00000203 002 OF 002 policy, he disagreed and said that it may "pinch" farmers initially, but everyone will benefit from the lower prices. In another village, elders told Poloff that neighboring countries have already started implementing economic relief measures, and that the Guinean Government needs to respond soon in order to avert a food crisis. -------------- NOT THINKING ABOUT ELECTIONS -------------- ¶7. Although villagers seemed to be reasonably well aware of global market forces and their impact on the local economy, many people were unaware that Guinea is organizing legislative elections in just six months. People with regular access to main roadways did know that elections are on the horizon and were able to comment on initial preparations. However, those living in the quiet village communities appeared surprised when Poloff asked about elections. One elder said "yes, we have heard something about elections, but we do not know if they have set a date, or even what the elections are for." A farmer in another village essentially said the same thing. When Poloff questioned whether there had been any discussions about elections on the local radio, villagers said that there had been some vague announcements, but no one really knows what is going on. ¶8. Those villagers who were aware of impending elections told Poloff that they hope the elections will be different from past elections, and that they will result in a more fairly elected legislature. The PUP representative, who is also the recently elected president of the local electoral commission, said that "elections are the answer if we elect good, honest people." However, he also said that his electoral commission, which consists of three members, has not held any meetings yet, and that they do not have any operational resources. ¶9. After informing people in more remote villages that the Guinean Government is in fact organizing elections for late 2008, Poloff asked what people thought about elections in general. One elder said that he was "not really interested in politics because nothing ever changes." Another villager said that they only ever hear from the politicians in the few months of campaigning before elections, and then they all disappear. "They speak about the many projects they will bring us, but then we never see anything materialize," one villager said. Despite this sense of pessimism, villagers said that they do want to see a national voter registration campaign, which may help bring more transparent, credible results. A group of farmers said that the if the prime minister organizes the elections, as opposed to the president, there's a "better chance for transparency." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. Although the comments from these Fulani villagers represent only a small sample of the population in Middle Guinea, they provide useful insights into what villagers are thinking about Guinea's current political and economic situation, at least in one part of the country. There was very little interest in the political machinations of the capital, or even much knowledge of the day to day politics. People were deeply concerned about the immediate cost of living issues, but also the broader development issues. One villager said that "if the government would just give everybody jobs, we would have peace." Most villagers seemed to feel that the current government is not the answer, but they didn't have another solution to offer. The lack of awareness of, as well as interest in, elections indicates that this government and the National Independent Electoral Commission have a steep road to climb if they are going to implement free and fair, transparent, credible elections in Guinea. END COMMENT. CARTER