LOCAL STAFF WORRIED ABOUT ONGOING POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L CONAKRY 000018 SIPDIS SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D COPY-- Please disregard (ZDS Conakry 210/213) all previous MCNs/MRNs under this cable subject heading. Previous cables under this subject heading went out as duplicates in error. E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV ELAB PREL KDEM ASEC GV SUBJECT: LOCAL STAFF WORRIED ABOUT ONGOING POLITICAL TROUBLES REF: A. CONAKRY 0029 ¶B. CONAKRY 0201 ¶C. CONAKRY 0182 ¶D. CONAKRY 0162 Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) Poloff and Econoff held an informal discussion with a group of senior LES staff from USAID, Management, RSO, Peace Corps, and PAO on March 13 to exchange thoughts on Guinea's current political situation a the upcoming March 31 deadline for negotiations set by the country's la unions (reftel A). LES staff agreed that there is currently a high deg of uncertainty and that they are generally worried about how things wil develop in the coming weeks and months. Based on their meetings with various contacts as well as their conversations with friends and relatives, LES staff identified several key concerns. -------------- REDUCING MILITARY RICE SUBSIDIES -------------- ¶2. (C) LES staff agreed that the military's plan to reduce subsidies o rice for its soldiers (reftel B) could incite a strong negative reactio and possibly a military revolt. Several LES mentioned that the subsidi rice is a signficant source of income for the average soldier and they already grumbling in the barracks. An RSO LES said that she has freque contact with lower ranking soldiers and they are making a lot of noise about the rice issue. One lieutenant reportedly told her that the lowe ranks are beginning to coalesce in opposition. Other staffmembers said that the senior military officials are loyal to President Conte, but th younger soldiers are divided. ¶3. (C) Staffmembers also mentioned the military's campaign to recruit soldiers, saying that the selection process is completely unfair and non-transparent. "People are only getting in if they have a personal recommendation from somebody who is already in the military," they said adding "none of it is based on merit." -------------- WHERE ARE THE AUDITS -------------- ¶4. (C) The issue of government audits (reftel C) also came up several times with LES staff questioning why the consensus government had not released them even though they are reportedly finished. They mentioned that according to the press, the president's chief of protocol, Idrissa Thiam, had gone to the new communications minister, Issa Conde, and pressured him to not release the audits. LES staff said that Idrissa Thiam is likely to be implicated for corruption and that is why he is trying to manipulate the situation. However, another LES staff member s that he sees Issa Conde every weekend at regular social events and that Conde told him that the Ministry of Economic Control had never even delivered the audits to his office. ¶5. (C) Interestingly, LES reported that Idrissa Thiam's sister is a Director at the National Treasury and said that everyone knows they are both corrupt. -------------- PREFECT AND CNC NOMINATIONS -------------- ¶6. (C) Several staffmembers commented on the recent presidential decre nominating a new prefect in Kindia and a new director for the National Communications Council (CNC) (reftel D). They said that people are resisting these nominations, particularly in Kindia. LES said that peaceful protests continue in Kindia and it will be important to see whether the people of Kindia can succeed in reversing the nomination. other LES mentioned that copies of the presidential decrees had been published in Horoya, the national newspaper, and that the president's signature on each document appears suspicious. They said that the signature is exactly the same on both documents, including were it is i relation to the text, which makes it appear as if the signature was cop from another document and then pasted on the decrees. The RSO LES said she was recently working her contacts at the Ministry of Justice and fo over three hours, various discussions focused on the CNC nomination wit people saying "if our government can do this, what is next?" -------------- ECONOMIC HARDSHIP -------------- ¶7. (C) LES staff repeatedly returned to basic economic hardship. One said "it's gone from bad to worse, and from worse to I don't even know what the word is." They mentioned that the Guinean franc has been steadily weakening in relation to both the dollar and the euro while th price of rice has been increasing. Shortages at the fuel pumps and reports of possible government enforced rationing (septel) only increas economic difficulties. They also said that the supply of electricity h deteriorated significantly in recent months. -------------- THE RUMOR MILL -------------- ¶8. (C) Staffmembers acknowledged that rumors abound in Guinea, but highlighted a few particularly concerning ones that they had heard recently. Some said that some contacts in the military are talking abo President Conte planning to set up his son, Ousmane Conte, who is notoriously corrupt, as his successor. On fuel subsidies, one LES said that people believe the government is intentionally making it appear as their are fuel shortages in order to justify increasing the price. Another reported that the joke on the street is that if there is a stri it will be to get rid of all Lansanas (meaning both Kouyate and Conte), because they haven't seen a Lansana that can do the job. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) The heightened sense of political uncertainty that came out of power struggle in early January continues. Our LES represent a good cross-section of the Embassy and of the population, and are tuned in wi what people are talking about. They generally agreed that people are worried, including themselves, and that they are not sure in what direction things will go. Opinions were generally mixed as to whether not a strike would go forward, and if it did, if it would turn violent. However, they were generally dissatisfied with Guinea's current politic and economic situation, agreeing that the government has failed to deliver. END COMMENT. BROKENSHIRE