YOUTH SAY STRIKES ARE A BAD IDEA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000016 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2018 TAGS: PGOV ELAB KDEM GV SUBJECT: YOUTH SAY STRIKES ARE A BAD IDEA Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. According to a Conakry youth leader, Guinea,s young people do not support the unions, plan to resume a nationwide labor strike on January 10, which could prematurely escalate political tension. Many of Conakry,s youth reportedly do not think that the prime minister has effectively delivered the change they demanded in early 2007 and does not warrant the support a nationwide strike would demonstrate. At the same time, some youths are hesitant to boycott the strike since they do not want to be seen supporting the president. According to contact, many youth feel that the best possible solution to Guinea,s current political problems would be a coup d,etat. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Poloff met with Thierno Balde, a Stanford University educated local youth leader, on January 7. Balde has been working with youth associations in Conakry in recent months in order to encourage unity and develop a concrete strategy for advancing the interests of Guinea,s young people. He also has plans to bring together youth associations from other parts of the country in order to work towards forming a national forum for youth. Balde lives in Hamdallaye, which is almost always one of the first of Conakry,s districts to erupt into violence when things heat up politically in the capital. Balde said that a group of approximately 25 youth leaders met on January 5 to discuss the current political situation and have additional meetings planned for January 7 and 8. ¶3. (C) According to Balde, there are basically two schools of thought on the current political situation among Conakry,s youth. The first group thinks that a nationwide labor strike is a bad idea. Balde said that many in this camp are simply disappointed with Prime Minister Kouyate and feel that he has done nothing to address the problems critical to youth: unemployment and lack of economic opportunity. Furthermore, Balde said that this group is not willing to go into the street and get killed, for Kouyate. Balde said that there is also a contingent within this group which is not interested in the strike because it is being paid to support one faction or another (COMMENT. He did not specify which faction. END COMMENT). ¶4. (C) The second camp, Balde said, does not fully support the idea of labor strikes, but feels that people must demonstrate support for the unions because if they do not, they will be tacitly supporting President Conte. According to Balde, for this group it is a matter of choosing the lesser of two evils ) they are not happy with Kouyate, but Conte is intolerable. ¶5. (C) Balde said that the youth believe that young people paid the price the last time around since most of the blood shed was that of Guinea,s youth. Balde added that they are not willing to pay that price this time around unless they are certain that it will result in real political change. With Kouyate,, Balde said, there is no role for the youth and even if the crisis is resolved, there still will be no role for youth., ¶6. (C) According to Balde, Conakry,s youth are envisioning three possible scenarios in relation to resolving current political tensions. The first scenario involves Conte firing Kouyate, which Balde said may not be problematic for the youth as long as Conte appoints an acceptable replacement. The second scenario is that the strike moves forward on January 10, of which Balde said no one has a clear idea of how that may develop or what impact it will have. The third scenario would be a military coup, and that, Balde said, is what most of the youth are hoping for. ¶7. (C) Balde emphasized that whatever happens, the youth want a clear solution; they want to see a clear path leading toward change. According to Balde, the youth see Conte as the main problem and his removal would clear the arena and enable a new leader to start over. However, Balde said, if there is a coup, whoever takes control needs to focus on one thing: organize legislative elections and then immediately hand power over to the new National Assembly. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Balde,s comments suggest that the youth may be both impatient and naive concerning the current political context - impatient in the sense that they expect change overnight and naive in the sense that their proposed solution, a coup d,etat, would bring the change they are looking for. Balde said the youth did not have any clear idea of who would take CONAKRY 00000016 002 OF 002 power in a coup situation, nor of how they would influence a new government that forcefully seized power. Balde seemed confident in his ability to keep the youth out of the streets during the upcoming labor strike. He said that if he tells them to stay home during the strikes, not as a demonstration of support for the unions, but as a way to avoid violence, he thinks they will. However, Guinea,s young people remain an unknown variable ) no one knows exactly what they will do or who or what they will ultimately support. This is the group that has little to lose and much to gain, and they are the ones who have been calling for change the loudest. CARTER