MALDIVES: MAJOR STEPS TAKEN AS DEADLINE NEARS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000854 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL MV SUBJECT: MALDIVES: MAJOR STEPS TAKEN AS DEADLINE NEARS FOR FIRST MULTI-PARTY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION REF: COLOMBO 765 Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Government has achieved significant, if still insufficient, progress on preparations for the first multi-party presidential elections in Maldivian history. Elections Commissioner Ibrahim announced that if the Parliament can pass two critical pieces of legislation by September 13 the first round of voting will be October 4. The announcement puts into question whether the Maldives will be able to hold two rounds of voting by the constitutional deadline of October 10. Nevertheless, campaigning continues with the first ever Presidential debate held on September 3, free media time being made available to the candidates and opposition polling reportedly showing President Gayoom in trouble. End Summary ¶2. (C) Despite a pace that puts into doubt the government's ability to meet the constitutional deadline of October 10, significant steps have been taken to prepare the legal and administrative groundwork for the elections. On September 5, five Elections Commissioners, after receiving greater than two-thirds support in Parliament, took their oaths of office and began their work preparing for the elections. On September 9 the Ministry of Information announced that each of the candidates would be granted three 15 minute slots per day on television. (Note: Initially the government was offering the slots only to political parties, excluding independent candidate and former Attorney General Hassan Saeed; however, after Ambassador contacted the Foreign Minister and Information Minister, Saeed was included in the free media distribution. End Note) ¶3. (SBU) On September 8 Elections Commissioner Ahmed Shahid announced that if the General Elections bill and the Presidential Elections bill are passed by September 13 then the first round of the Presidential Elections would be held October 4th. Local NGO Transparency Maldives head Aiman Rasheed questioned whether the Parliament would be able to pass the legislation in time. Even if the first round is held on October 4 it is unclear at this point how the government would be able to hold a second round run off between the top two finishers and adjudicate any disputes about the results by the Constitutional deadline of October ¶10. Rasheed expected a period of "Constitutional void" during a post-October 10 second round. Opposition Maldivian Democratic Party representative Ahmed Naseem Mohammed (Naseem) hinted that a legal interpretation might be found that would re-interpret the Constitution to require just one round of voting to be completed by October 10th. ¶4. (U) In addition to the flurry of legislative activity the campaign continued. On September 3, following a failed attempt in August, government television channel TVM hosted the first ever presidential debate in Male. All six presidential candidates took part in the two hour session. The format of the debate did not allow candidates to question each other; however, President Gayoom shared the stage as his political opponents critiqued the size of his personal staff, expressed concern about widespread corruption and discussed their plans to address the economic and development issues facing the country. On his personal blog Information and Arts Minister Mohamed Nasheed aptly described the event as an "historic first" and complimented the country on the "immense maturity we have achieved...in a short span of time." ¶5. (C) MDP and NGO representatives reported that President Gayoom came across as angry on stage during other candidates' indirect attacks on him. Naseem reported that negotiations are under way for two additional debates, one of which would be hosted by private TV channel DFM, and allow candidates to directly address each other. Naseem also reported that internal MDP polling showed Gayoom in third place behind MDP COLOMBO 00000854 002 OF 002 leader Anni and independent candidate Hassan Saeed. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: The government is most likely not going to be able to meet the October 10 deadline; however, at this point it appears that the President is committed to going forward with the elections in a manner that does not overly slant the playing field in his direction. He is clearly relying on island chiefs to deliver some blocs of votes and ensure his victory. It is unclear how he will react if as the election nears his polling shows him losing or failing to make it into a second round. One to two Embassy staff will be participating in the planned EU monitoring mission for the elections. GORM responsiveness to Ambassador's entreaties to extend free airtime to all the candidates, the President's grudging participation in the debate and the lack of reports of significant intimidation of the opposition or monitoring groups are all positive signs. While the Maldives may enter a period of constitutional void, such a period would be a much better outcome than a rushed and deeply flawed vote that stuck to the constitutional timeframe. End Comment BLAKE