Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08COLOMBO723
2008-07-28 08:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:
SRI LANKA: APRC RECOMMENCES MEETINGS, JOINED BY
VZCZCXRO7467 OO RUEHBI DE RUEHLM #0723/01 2100853 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 280853Z JUL 08 FM AMEMBASSY COLOMBO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8480 INFO RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 1028 RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 8019 RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU PRIORITY 6196 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 4498 RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 2195 RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO PRIORITY 4466 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 3567 RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI PRIORITY 8624 RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI PRIORITY 6061 RUEHON/AMCONSUL TORONTO PRIORITY 0728 RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 2887 RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000723
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM MOPS CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: APRC RECOMMENCES MEETINGS, JOINED BY
TMVP
Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b,d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000723
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM MOPS CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: APRC RECOMMENCES MEETINGS, JOINED BY
TMVP
Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b,d).
1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador met with All Party Representative
Committee (APRC) Chairman Tissa Vitharana to discuss the
devolution process and encourage the APRC to invite the
Opposition to reach a consensus on a post-conflict political
solution. Vitharana told Ambassador that the APRC's main
difficulty is in uniting the minority parties on a devolution
plan; President Rajapaksa is also reluctant to suspend the
military process and risk losing popular support. The APRC,
consisting primarily of pro-government allies, met last
Monday for the first time in a month, also joined for the
first time by a representative from the TMVP. End summary.
2. (C) APRC Chairman Tissa Vitharana told Ambassador on July
24 that he had been first approached three months ago by the
Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) and Mahajana Eksath Peramuna (MEP)
about inviting the Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Puligal (TMVP) to
join the APRC. He spoke with the President, who decided to
wait until after the Eastern Provincial Council election, and
agreed to issue the invitation once it was clear that there
would be a TMVP Chief Minister: Sivanesathurai
Chandrakanthan, alias Pillaiyan.
3. (C) Vitharana reported that in a face-to-face meeting,
Pillaiyan said that though he hoped for the defeat of the
LTTE, he was aware that it was only because of the LTTE's
rebellion that the TMVP's point of view was even being heard.
He further observed that Sinhalese resistance had kept a
series of governments from implementing the 13th Amendment
since its passage in 1987. Vitharana said he assured
Pillaiyan that President Rajapaksa supported devolution and
that the psychology of the Sinhalese majority had matured
over time. Whereas in 1983 the deaths of a dozen Sinhalese
soldiers had sparked violent anti-Tamil riots in Colombo,
this year the Army has suffered significant losses in
addition to at least ten public transit bombs and yet there
has not been a single anti-Tamil attack, Vitharana noted.
4. (C) Vitharana told Ambassador that persuading the minority
parties to agree to maximum devolution would be much easier
if the LTTE would abandon its demand for a separate state (an
observation that many minority leaders privately agree with).
Ambassador noted that the U.S. has publicly advocated a
political solution involving devolution and repeatedly called
on the LTTE to abandon its separatist goal, but added we
believe military efforts would never be able to eradicate the
LTTE completely. To that end, we have consistently urged the
government to have ready a political solution that will earn
the support of the Vanni Tamils, many of whom have suffered
under forced conscription by the LTTE. Vitharana responded
that the current government feels that the LTTE must first be
militarily weakened. Further, according to Vitharana
proposing any change in the "unitary state" holds significant
risks for the SLFP, which has only a bare majority in
Parliament and in effect leads a minority government.
5. (C) Vitharana told Ambassador that he was unsure of the
President's military timetable, but said that the President
is well aware that the Sri Lankan people are enduring
economic burdens because of the recent military successes.
According to Vitharana, if the President suspends the
military process to enter into peace talks, he would open the
door for the JVP to accuse him of betraying the people's
sacrifices. The JVP would seek to take advantage of the
disillusionment and garner support for its own radical
political and economic agenda.
6. (C) Vitharana agreed with Ambassador that early
Parliamentary elections will likely be held next year. By
then Vitharana hopes that the UNP will rejoin the APRC and
assist in reaching a consensus; as long as the party remains
outside of the discussion, "our message to the Tamil people
is weakened." Ambassador encouraged Vitharana to issue the
COLOMBO 00000723 002 OF 002
invitation and informed him that Chairman of the UNP Ranil
Wickremesinghe has stated privately that he would support an
APRC consensus. Vitharana thought Wickremesinghe could
regain popularity by supporting the APRC; the Ambassador
observed that President Rajapaksa would also gain minority
support by endorsing the APRC consensus on devolution.
7. (C) Vitharana praised the professionalism of Sivageetha
Prabakharan (a/k/a "Pathmini"),Batticaloa mayor and the new
TMVP representative to the APRC. The TMVP has already
circulated a document to the APRC outlining its fundamental
positions; Vitharana said that another one specifically
addressing details of devolution will be released soon.
8. (C) The JHU and MEP did not participate in the APRC
meeting on July 14; however, the parties' central committees
have told Vitharana that they will be present at the next
one. The most recent meeting was the first in a month; the
APRC will not meet next week because of the SAARC conference,
but intends to meet weekly thereafter.
9. (C) COMMENT: The outlines of a possible devolution plan
have been known for many months. However, the same political
one-upmanship between the President's SLFP and the opposition
UNP that has prevented progress on resolving the ethnic
conflict for more than two decades is also the chief
stumbling block to progress within the APRC. The UNP
commitment to support a government development proposal that
emerges from the APRC has been on the table for months. This
will not be enough to break the deadlock; only an agreement
by the main opposition party to participate in the process
and help shape the outcome would give the President enough
political cover to persuade him to allow the APRC process to
come to fruition. The UNP in turn fears that the President
would then blame its leader Ranil Wickremesinghe for any
concessions made to the Tamil parties. A corollary of this
zero-sum thinking is that the government's current military
successes give the President little incentive to pursue a
political track. Nontheless, as the Ambassador stated to
Vitharana, it is important that the GSL use this time now to
lay the groundwork for power sharing once the GSL decides to
stop fighting.
BLAKE
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM MOPS CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: APRC RECOMMENCES MEETINGS, JOINED BY
TMVP
Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b,d).
1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador met with All Party Representative
Committee (APRC) Chairman Tissa Vitharana to discuss the
devolution process and encourage the APRC to invite the
Opposition to reach a consensus on a post-conflict political
solution. Vitharana told Ambassador that the APRC's main
difficulty is in uniting the minority parties on a devolution
plan; President Rajapaksa is also reluctant to suspend the
military process and risk losing popular support. The APRC,
consisting primarily of pro-government allies, met last
Monday for the first time in a month, also joined for the
first time by a representative from the TMVP. End summary.
2. (C) APRC Chairman Tissa Vitharana told Ambassador on July
24 that he had been first approached three months ago by the
Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) and Mahajana Eksath Peramuna (MEP)
about inviting the Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Puligal (TMVP) to
join the APRC. He spoke with the President, who decided to
wait until after the Eastern Provincial Council election, and
agreed to issue the invitation once it was clear that there
would be a TMVP Chief Minister: Sivanesathurai
Chandrakanthan, alias Pillaiyan.
3. (C) Vitharana reported that in a face-to-face meeting,
Pillaiyan said that though he hoped for the defeat of the
LTTE, he was aware that it was only because of the LTTE's
rebellion that the TMVP's point of view was even being heard.
He further observed that Sinhalese resistance had kept a
series of governments from implementing the 13th Amendment
since its passage in 1987. Vitharana said he assured
Pillaiyan that President Rajapaksa supported devolution and
that the psychology of the Sinhalese majority had matured
over time. Whereas in 1983 the deaths of a dozen Sinhalese
soldiers had sparked violent anti-Tamil riots in Colombo,
this year the Army has suffered significant losses in
addition to at least ten public transit bombs and yet there
has not been a single anti-Tamil attack, Vitharana noted.
4. (C) Vitharana told Ambassador that persuading the minority
parties to agree to maximum devolution would be much easier
if the LTTE would abandon its demand for a separate state (an
observation that many minority leaders privately agree with).
Ambassador noted that the U.S. has publicly advocated a
political solution involving devolution and repeatedly called
on the LTTE to abandon its separatist goal, but added we
believe military efforts would never be able to eradicate the
LTTE completely. To that end, we have consistently urged the
government to have ready a political solution that will earn
the support of the Vanni Tamils, many of whom have suffered
under forced conscription by the LTTE. Vitharana responded
that the current government feels that the LTTE must first be
militarily weakened. Further, according to Vitharana
proposing any change in the "unitary state" holds significant
risks for the SLFP, which has only a bare majority in
Parliament and in effect leads a minority government.
5. (C) Vitharana told Ambassador that he was unsure of the
President's military timetable, but said that the President
is well aware that the Sri Lankan people are enduring
economic burdens because of the recent military successes.
According to Vitharana, if the President suspends the
military process to enter into peace talks, he would open the
door for the JVP to accuse him of betraying the people's
sacrifices. The JVP would seek to take advantage of the
disillusionment and garner support for its own radical
political and economic agenda.
6. (C) Vitharana agreed with Ambassador that early
Parliamentary elections will likely be held next year. By
then Vitharana hopes that the UNP will rejoin the APRC and
assist in reaching a consensus; as long as the party remains
outside of the discussion, "our message to the Tamil people
is weakened." Ambassador encouraged Vitharana to issue the
COLOMBO 00000723 002 OF 002
invitation and informed him that Chairman of the UNP Ranil
Wickremesinghe has stated privately that he would support an
APRC consensus. Vitharana thought Wickremesinghe could
regain popularity by supporting the APRC; the Ambassador
observed that President Rajapaksa would also gain minority
support by endorsing the APRC consensus on devolution.
7. (C) Vitharana praised the professionalism of Sivageetha
Prabakharan (a/k/a "Pathmini"),Batticaloa mayor and the new
TMVP representative to the APRC. The TMVP has already
circulated a document to the APRC outlining its fundamental
positions; Vitharana said that another one specifically
addressing details of devolution will be released soon.
8. (C) The JHU and MEP did not participate in the APRC
meeting on July 14; however, the parties' central committees
have told Vitharana that they will be present at the next
one. The most recent meeting was the first in a month; the
APRC will not meet next week because of the SAARC conference,
but intends to meet weekly thereafter.
9. (C) COMMENT: The outlines of a possible devolution plan
have been known for many months. However, the same political
one-upmanship between the President's SLFP and the opposition
UNP that has prevented progress on resolving the ethnic
conflict for more than two decades is also the chief
stumbling block to progress within the APRC. The UNP
commitment to support a government development proposal that
emerges from the APRC has been on the table for months. This
will not be enough to break the deadlock; only an agreement
by the main opposition party to participate in the process
and help shape the outcome would give the President enough
political cover to persuade him to allow the APRC process to
come to fruition. The UNP in turn fears that the President
would then blame its leader Ranil Wickremesinghe for any
concessions made to the Tamil parties. A corollary of this
zero-sum thinking is that the government's current military
successes give the President little incentive to pursue a
political track. Nontheless, as the Ambassador stated to
Vitharana, it is important that the GSL use this time now to
lay the groundwork for power sharing once the GSL decides to
stop fighting.
BLAKE