SRI LANKA: RAJAPAKSA GOVERNMENT'S SUPPORT BASE

UNCLAS COLOMBO 000681 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PTER CE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: RAJAPAKSA GOVERNMENT'S SUPPORT BASE REMAINS SOLID REF: COLOMBO 539 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Despite economic troubles and democratic lapses, President Rajapaksa continues to enjoy popular support among the Sinhalese majority, even as opinions differ radically among the minority communities. Minister of Environment Ranawaka reflected GSL's approach to the conflict in a July 12 op-ed that argued the LTTE could be defeated decisively. The government's war strategy prioritizes the destruction of the LTTE both militarily and politically while at the same time characterizing civil society and international criticism as giving support to the Tigers. End summary. ¶2. (U) Minister of Environment and Natural Resources Patali Champika Ranawaka, a member of the extreme nationalist JHU party, reflected the GSL,s war mentality in a July 12 op-ed titled "The War Is Winnable". In the column, Ranawaka denies the ethnic origins of the conflict, instead arguing that the LTTE developed as a proxy force of India and a few Western nations. He asserts that the GSL's number one priority should be to "prevent international military or political intervention." This claim is consistent with the GSL's recent demonizing of international organizations and foreign governments for trying to "stop the war against terrorism." Both are accused of becoming extensions of the LTTE in a battlefield where attacks occur not only militarily but also in the form of allegations of human rights abuses, protests against media censorship, union strikes, and the tarnishing of SRI Lanka,s image in international forums. ¶3. (U) Deep divisions remain between the ethnic communities' perceptions of the conflict. A nationwide poll released by the Centre for Police Alternatives (CPA) in June illustrates the continuing popular support enjoyed by President Rajapaksa within the Sinhalese community despite the rising cost of living and a rollback of democratic norms. Only 11% of Sinhalese (versus just over 50% of Tamils) consider abuse of human rights by the police or the armed forces very significant. Additionally, the poll found that 56% of Tamils feel that discrimination since independence has been a "very significant" problem while only 12% of Sinhalese agree. These polling results are consistent with previous CPA polls (ref A). ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: The GSL's goal has been to depict the LTTE as an extremist renegade force ) one that could be wiped out permanently - rather than deriving the limited support it has from a segment of the population that fears and distrusts the central government. The GSL's promotion of the LTTE splinter group TMVP in the East helps make their case that the LTTE is not the sole representative of the Tamil population. However, TMVP's assumption of political power in the East will only serve to draw support as a viable alternative to the LTTE if it can improve the daily lives of the Eastern population and receive significant powers devolved from Colombo. Devolution, when linked with "federalism," however remains deeply unpopular with the CPA poll finding 77% of Sinhalese oppose making SRI LANKA a federal state. This reflects the drumbeat of criticism of devolution by ideologues such as Ranawaka. Should the President and his team decide to pursue devolution with sincerity and make their case publicly, we are confident he could reverse these poll numbers. End comment. BLAKE