SRI LANKA: TWO PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS SET

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 000653 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM MOPS CE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: TWO PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS SET FOR AUGUST 23RD REF: COLOMBO 571 Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROBERT O. BLAKE, JR. REASONS: 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The SRI Lankan Election Commission set August 23rd as the date for two Provincial Council elections in the North Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces. The campaigns in both provinces are likely to revolve around the government's war strategy versus the opposition's emphasis on pocketbook issues, corruption and the rollback of democratic norms. End Summary. ¶2. (U) On July 4 the SRI Lankan Election Commission set August 23rd as the date for the North Central (NCP) and Sabaragamuwa Province (SP) elections. The ruling UPFA coalition has nominated incumbents Berty Premalal Dissanayake (NCP) and Mahipala Herath (SP) as Chief Minister (CM) candidates. The UNP has named former Army Chief of Staff Major General Janaka Perera to lead their slate in the NCP, but has yet to name a Chief Minister candidate for SP. (Actor Rajnan Ramanayake, a former Catholic, who converted to Buddhism July 3, is seen as the most likely candidate). ¶3. (SBU) The campaigns in these predominantly Buddhist areas will pit the ruling coalition UPFA's support for the government's war strategy against the UNP's emphasis on the cost of living, corruption and the intimidation of civil society during the past two years. The UNP's selection of retired Major General Perera as its standard-bearer in the north is an attempt to insulate itself from the charge that it can't be trusted to take the threat from the LTTE seriously and to help ensure the vote is as free and fair as possible. UPFA political organizers told PolFSN that government rice subsidies have built support in the farming communities that dominate both provinces. They also reported that the largest number of recruits to the army come from the NCP, generating increased income when army salaries are sent home to the villages. ¶4. (SBU) The August 23rd vote will also be the first test for former JVP Propaganda Secretary Wimal Weerawansa's new National Freedom Front (NFF) party. NFF's ability to attract JVP voters away from the opposition and to the President's UPFA coalition will be a key factor determining whether the President's party wins control of both Councils, where the JVP held 10 (SP) and 8 (NCP) seats. The TMVP has included a member in the UPFA coalition's list for the Polonnaruwa district (NCP) where there is a significant Tamil population. UNP leaders report that the TMVP have opened a number of offices in the district. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: The GSL scheduled these elections partly to take advantage of momentum generated by its success, albeit tainted, in the recent Eastern provincial council elections. While both sides express confidence in their ability to win, the government enters the campaign with the clear advantage of government resources at its disposal and a perception among some voters that their province would receive less support from Colombo if led by the opposition. We anticipate a heated campaign and note that there have already been reports of isolated incidents of violence where those putting up JVP posters in SP have been assaulted. End Comment BLAKE