SRI LANKA: MAY 10 EASTERN POLLS SEEN AS REFERENDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 COLOMBO 000448 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM MOPS CE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: MAY 10 EASTERN POLLS SEEN AS REFERENDUM ON GOVERNMENT REF: A. COLOMBO 341 ¶B. COLOMBO 248 ¶C. COLOMBO 231 Classified By: Ambassador Robert O. Blake, Jr., for reasons 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The May 10 Eastern Provincial Council elections are the first provincial-level polls in the East in twenty years. A relatively free, fair, and peaceful election would help bring back normalcy in the East, lay the groundwork for democratic administrative structures, and reinforce the East's identity as separate from the North. The polls are widely seen as a midterm referendum on the Rajapaksa administration, which upholds economic development and the defeat of the LTTE in the East as major victories - and a potential model for the North. The overall security situation has been relatively peaceful, but opposition parties report widespread election malpractices. Further, the GSL's suspension of Parliament may in part be an attempt to prevent Parliamentary investigation and debate of potential election abuses. The elections have further polarized Tamils and Muslims in the Eastern Province, as each minority community seeks the balance of power in the future provincial council. This fragmentation, also evident in the Sinhalese population, and the chances for electoral abuses make it difficult to predict results, although we believe a UPFA victory is the most likely outcome. End summary. ¶2. (U) POLOFF traveled to Ampara District on May 1-2 to assess the ground situation in advance of the Eastern Provincial Council elections scheduled for May 10. We met with the Government Agent, political party representatives, Muslim and Tamil community leaders, the election monitoring organization PAFFREL, and several UN humanitarian agencies. POL FSN is visiting Trincomalee District May 8-9. Background on Eastern Polls -------------- ¶3. (U) Elections were last held in the East in 1988, when the Eastern Province (Trincomalee, Batticaloa, and Ampara Districts) was temporarily merged with the Northern Province under the Indo-Lanka Peace Accord. A referendum was to make the merger permanent, but it was never held. The council for the merged North East Province was dissolved in 1990 and the merger declared invalid in 2006. After several years of the GSL and LTTE contesting control over the East, and heavy fighting in 2006 to 2007, it was brought more firmly under government control in July 2007. ¶4. (C) A relatively free, fair, and peaceful election would help bring back normalcy in the East, lay the groundwork for democratic administrative structures, and reinforce the East's identity as separate from the North, thus undercutting the Eelamist dream of an independent, merged North East. The elections make a re-merger highly unlikely. ¶5. (SBU) Some 1,342 candidates are contesting 35 seats on the Eastern Provincial Council, with an additional two bonus seats to the winning party in Ampara. The party that wins the most seats will appoint the Chief Minister. Other provincial councils have demonstrated relatively little power in relation to the central government, but the government has signaled its intention to implement fully the 13th Amendment to grant further powers to the provincial councils. Observers point out that provincial councils lack tax-raising power and authority over security forces and police. However, provincial councils exercise some authority over development projects, a key issue for the East's recovery from decades of conflict and neglect. ¶6. (C) The ruling United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) has aligned with the TMVP, a paramilitary group attempting to transition to political party. The main opposition United COLOMBO 00000448 002 OF 005 National Party (UNP) has joined forces with the East-based Sri Lankan Muslim Congress (SLMC),the largest Muslim party (ref A). The recently fractured JVP is running alone. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) is sitting out the elections so as not to legitimize the de-merger of the Northern and Eastern Provinces. In doing so, however, it has facilitated Muslims' or the TMVP's assertion of power in the East. Key Polls Seen as Midterm Referendum on Rajapaksa Administration -------------- ¶7. (C) The Eastern Provincial Council (EPC) elections are widely seen as a midterm referendum on the Rajapaksa administration. With resumption of control over the East about one year ago, the GSL is touting EPC elections as a key element in its efforts to devolve power to the provincial councils. In its campaign, the UPFA has emphasized the significant infrastructure development that has taken place under the Rajapaksa government, and the defeat of the LTTE in the East. UPFA candidates tell voters to support them if they want continued economic development, and that the UNP-SLMC would bring new uncertainties. (Most if not all development projects are donor-funded, but the UPFA is claiming full credit.) Successful conclusion of the elections would boost the government's claim that the "liberation" of the East stands as a model for the North. ¶8. (U) In addition, the elections come as the government is under severe economic strain, and the cost of living has risen sharply island-wide. Observers say this will hurt the UPFA at the polls, but voters may also see the ruling party as their surest bet that money and development will flow to the province. ¶9. (U) All three ethnic communities -- Sinhalese, Tamil, and Muslim -- exist in almost equal proportions in the Eastern Province, in contrast to clearer Sinhala and Tamil majorities in the rest of the country. According to the 2001 census, the Eastern Province is 45 percent Tamil, 32 percent Muslim, and 23 percent Sinhalese. Thus, no one group has a monopoly on the electorate, and the elections enable all three communities to weigh in on the Rajapaksa administration. ¶10. (C) The GSL has an especially high stake in the elections. President Rajapaksa currently retains the confidence of the majority of the country's population. A loss in the EPC elections could shift this perception, undermining the regime's credibility. Historically, government defeats during midterm elections have led to defeats in national polls. ¶11. (U) Both the ruling UPFA and major opposition parties are committing significant resources and attention to the elections. For about the past month, the GSL has suspended all foreign travel for government ministers, sending many senior ministers to campaign in the East. All major parties are intensely engaged in the campaign. Election Malpractices Reflect High Stakes -------------- ¶12. (C) Embassy contacts and media report apparently systematic attempts by the allied UPFA and TMVP to engage in electoral malpractices. A UNP Member of Parliament campaigning in Batticaloa District told DCM that TMVP members threatened to kill the owner of the small hotel where he and other UNP supporters were staying if they did not leave. When he moved to another town on May 7, the police asked him to leave because they could not guarantee his safety there. He demanded, however, that security be provided to him as an MP, which police indicated they would attempt to provide. There are widespread reports of misuse of state property (e.g. Emboff saw packed public buses in Ampara district COLOMBO 00000448 003 OF 005 flying UPFA streamers),though this is consistent with the conduct of previous incumbent governments. The opposition UNP accused the TMVP of issuing forged special identity cards to Batticaloa and Trincomalee residents, and has taken the issue up with the Elections Commissioner. On Emboff's trip to Ampara, opposition parties corroborated one another's allegations of UPFA-TMVP misconduct. A senior SLMC leader alleged that a government minister directed GSL poverty alleviation officers to tell people that their food stamps would be withheld if they did not support the UPFA-TMVP. ¶13. (C) In a meeting on May 7, Basil Rajapaksa told Ambassador that thus far, the government has received only a small number of complaints of election-related irregularities. For example, from Trincomalee there have been three complaints (all judged "minor"),and the number from other areas is also low. Referring to the relative number of election-related abuses by various parties, Rajapaksa said, "I can guarantee one hundred percent, the TMVP is the best. It's the party I can control. They follow our expectations." The Ambassador stressed the need for the election to be free and fair, and that even the mere perception of it being otherwise would increase the chance of post-election violence. Rajapaksa responded that, in his opinion, it is impossible to rig the voting, due to five institutional "checks" on the system, which all issue independent reports. They are: the Special Polling Officer, the representatives of the Election Commission working for the Government Agent, the police, PAFFREL, and international observers (mostly from Asian countries, arranged by the GSL). Before vote counting begins, all five reports will be read. Rajapaksa added that in order to vote, individuals must have a national identity card. Those without an identity card can enter their names in an official registry in advance of the election and receive a certified form with photo which can be used as a temporary ID to vote in the election. ¶14. (C) The TMVP remains armed, and opposition parties in Ampara allege that armed TMVP cadres have threatened and prevented the UNP and SLMC from openly campaigning in certain Tamil areas. There are also reports of isolated election-related violence. The UNP chief candidate in Ampara District, Daya Gamage, was assaulted on May 3 and hospitalized. An SLMC leader reported that an SLMC candidate and worker were injured on April 30 in an Akkaraipattu market. One Embassy contact predicts that the UPFA-TMVP will rig polls through physical attacks to intimidate voters and polling agents, and stuffing ballot boxes. ¶15. (C) The GSL set May 7 as the last day of campaigning. On May 8, POL FSN observed in Trincomalee that a UPFA candidate was still campaigning and operating out of her campaign offices. Meanwhile, opposition party offices were closed, and organizers had to meet POL FSN in a hotel. ¶16. (C) The GSL took a troubling step this week that may mark an effort to pre-empt Parliamentary action on possible election abuses. On May 6, the President prorogued (suspended) Parliament until June 5. Basil Rajapaksa defended the proroguing, saying that such actions are often taken in Parliamentary democracies to end Parliamentary sessions each year. The current session had lasted four years. Further, proroguing was necessary to appoint new heads of Parliamentary committees to replace those who had been assassinated by the LTTE or had resigned their seats. ¶17. (C) Opposition parties in Ampara uniformly told Emboff that the extent of UPFA-TMVP election abuses demonstrates how much the GSL fears defeat in the elections and to what lengths it will go to secure a win. Observers generally seemed to believe that the election outcome would hinge on the extent of UPFA-TMVP malpractices. UNP-SLMC operatives predictably say that free and fair elections would give them a sure win. COLOMBO 00000448 004 OF 005 Ethnic Tensions Exacerbated -------------- ¶18. (C) The elections have inflamed historical tensions between Tamils and Muslims in the East. In a private meeting with Ambassador, Minister of Export Development and International Trade G.L. Peiris expressed concern about this polarization, and agreed that the perception of an unfree and unfair election could trigger ethnic violence. Emboff contacts report that Tamils feel they have no good option in the elections. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA),the largest Tamil political party, has refused to contest. Historically, the UNP has a significant following among Tamils in the East, but ethnicity will likely trump political party affiliation for many Tamils. Though Tamils do not respect TMVP leader Pillaiyan, a former LTTE child soldier without formal education, they reportedly will vote for him in the hopes of seeing a Tamil Chief Minister. TMVP intimidation will also likely garner Tamil votes for the UPFA-TMVP. ¶19. (C) Conversely, Muslims, who are also eyeing the Chief Ministership, want assurance that the EPC will protect and advocate for their community. Yet Muslims are divided between supporters of Rauff Hakeem, who resigned his seat in Parliament to contest as the SLMC chief candidate in Trincomalee District (ref C),and those of SLMC Batticaloa strongman M.L.A.M. Hisbullah and SLMC leader Ferial Ashraf. The latter two recently crossed over to the government, and will carry some Muslim votes to the UPFA-TMVP. Hisbullah and Ashraf have the advantage of coming from the East, while Hakeem is seen as a Colombo outsider. ¶20. (C) Likewise, the Sinhalese vote will be split between the UPFA and UNP. This fragmentation across all ethnic communities makes it difficult to predict the election results. Security Situation -------------- ¶21. (C) Despite the isolated incidents noted above and the presence of armed TMVP cadres, the security situation throughout the province has been relatively peaceful. Emboff observed frequent checkpoints and increased numbers of security personnel in Ampara and Trincomalee Districts. A UPFA candidate in Trincomalee told Emboff that 30,000 security personnel are in the East. ¶22. (C) The Special Task Force (STF) has been mostly re-deployed out of Ampara District, replaced by Sri Lankan Army units. UNP-SLMC supporters allege that TMVP leader and Chief Minister candidate Pillaiyan demanded that the government remove the STF from Ampara District because they are less tolerant of TMVP arms than is the SLA. Community leaders reported that people prefer STF to SLA forces because the former are more familiar with the area and community. Defense Secretary Rajapaksa told Ambassador that the STF had been re-deployed in part because of U.S. criticism of human rights abuses by the STF. Political Parties' Perspectives -------------- ¶23. (C) The ruling UPFA is campaigning on the claim that it can deliver the economic development to the East that the Rajapaksa administration has already begun. Party organizers told Emboff that people know money will flow to the province if they elect the party that also holds power at the center. The opposition, however, told Emboff that the UPFA's strategy is to rely on the TMVP to bring them the Tamil vote, and this explains the extent of election malpractices and GSL tolerance of armed TMVP cadres. COLOMBO 00000448 005 OF 005 ¶24. (C) The opposition UNP has a traditional base in the East among the Sinhala population (especially in Ampara District),and a significant following among Tamils. It has unquestionably gained strength through its alliance with the SLMC (ref A). In Ampara town, UNP campaign headquarters were bustling and well-organized. The UNP Chief Candidate in Ampara, Daya Gamage, exuded confidence to Emboff, claiming that in Ampara District, there was 65% support among Sinhalese for the UNP, and 75-80% support among Tamils. However, Gamage decried UPFA-TMVP election abuses. He echoed party statements that the UNP-SLMC has not selected a candidate for the Chief Minister post, which would go to whoever garners the most votes. The SLMC expressed confidence similar to that of the UNP, but recognized that the Muslim vote would be split between Hakeem and Hisbullah/Ashraf supporters. ¶25. (C) The JVP in Ampara told Emboff that the party is contesting mainly with a long term interest to prevent separatism. (It was the JVP who challenged the North-East merger in the Supreme Court.) The party seeks to gain a few seats that would give it the balance of power in the provincial council, and the ability to prevent any party from pursuing a re-merger of the North and East. The JVP also claimed it wants to prevent a UNP-SLMC dominated council from creating a climate conducive to LTTE infiltration. Comment -------------- ¶26. (C) All sides recognize the high stakes in the EPC elections. All parties are pulling out all the stops to ensure a victory, while taking steps to manage the political fallout in the event of a loss. At the same time, electoral malpractices are, so far, mostly consistent with previous incumbent parties' conduct, and election-related violence has been lower than expected. If massive vote rigging is perceived or proven, ethnic violence may break out. The GSL likely knows this, and has placed security forces in positions where they can respond to such violence. The outcome of the election will depend in part on the extent of electoral abuses. It will also depend on whether voters punish the ruling UPFA for cost of living increases, or decide that the majority party is best positioned to bring resources to the East and continue to ensure improved security. Our sense is that the TMVP's control of Batticaloa, coupled with the massive state resources the GSL has allocated to the campaign and the potential for at least some vote rigging, are likely to swing the results in the UPFA's favor. Regardless of the results, balancing the demands of the three ethnic communities, especially Tamils and Muslims, will be a key challenge for the new Eastern Provincial Council. BLAKE