SRI LANKA: PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS RISK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 000288

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM MOPS CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: PROVINCIAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS RISK
REPEATING FAILURES OF BATTICALOA ELECTIONS

REF: A. COLOMBO 00199

B. COLOMBO 00248

Classified By: DCM James R. Moore, for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: During EmbOffs' visit to Batticaloa before
the March 10 district-wide local council elections, political
parties reiterated their concerns that the elections would
not be free or fair. Paramilitaries contesting as political
parties claimed to have disarmed, but local residents feared
the weapons would reappear after the local elections.
Parties' responses to the election results were mixed, with
some leaders begrudgingly accepting the results and others
(notably those of the TNA and UNP) denouncing them. The
Foreign Ministry welcomed the completion of the elections as
a triumph for democracy. The GSL has since announced that
provincial council elections will be held in the entire
Eastern Province on May 10. Embassy remains concerned that
the short deadline will not provide enough time to resolve
problems noted in the local elections process. However, a
demonstration of political resolve on the part of the GSL to
disarm all paramilitaries, accompanied by decisions by a
broader spectrum of parties to contest the provincial
elections, may yet create an environment for a fair poll that
reflects popular will and produces a representative
government. End Summary.

Views of Parties That Contested
the Local Elections
--------------


2. (U) In the three days before the March 10 local
elections, EmbOffs met in Batticaloa with the chief
candidates of all parties contesting the elections (except
EROS): the TMVP, EPDP, EPRLF, PLOTE, and SLMC. All parties
except the TMVP expressed doubt that the elections could be
free and fair. The TMVP, on the other hand, claimed that
none of its candidates were forced to contest, and that all
its members had already put down their weapons (these claims
run counter, however, to several credible reports, ref b).
When asked to describe what the party hoped to accomplish
once in government, TMVP leader "Pradeep Master," after a
lengthy pause for reflection, cited the TMVP's desire to
re-claim municipal properties in High Security Zones, and to
"build trust" between the security forces and the people.


3. (U) The EPDP also claimed to have disarmed (contrary to
credible reports),and complained that the TMVP had been
blocking EPDP campaigning. In Arayampathy, an EPDP member
was assaulted by TMVP member "Santhan," but the police did
not act on the complaint. The EPDP expected the elections to
be rigged, but said they hoped for 35 seats (in the final
results, the EPDP coalition with EPRLF and PLOTE won 16
seats). The party planned to have poll monitors, but said
that they could not send monitors to areas where the TMVP is
powerful. According to EPDP, these monitors would be
villagers, whose safety the party could not ensure when they
returned home. EPDP also said that in Kokadicholai, a former
PLOTE member named Paranthaman Gajendran was shot dead on
March 4, 2008.


4. (U) The EPRLF lead candidate, reportedly quite popular,
said that former TNA candidates were contesting as TMVP
(corroborating previous reporting to EmbOffs). The candidate
stressed that people's main concern in Batticaloa district is
physical security ) they are not yet thinking of
development. In Kokadicholai, the main livelihood is cattle
raising. However, due to security concerns, cattle farmers
pasture their cattle in the jungle for 3 to 4 months, without
contact with the outside world.


5. (U) According to PLOTE, on March 6 in Puthur, TMVP member
Santhan distributed leaflets with a public warning to vote
for the TMVP, otherwise "we will not support you in the

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future." In Arayampathy, TMVP members threatened PLOTE
members while displaying weapons. The PLOTE candidate also
claimed that in Kalawanchikudy, TMVP members entered the
PLOTE office and intimidated party supporters. PLOTE has
complained to the police but no action has been taken. The
candidate added that in Karadiyanaaru, humanitarian agencies
have been denied the necessary access to help people.


6. (U) According to the SLMC lead candidate, all parties
except the TMVP faced restrictions on campaigning. He
asserted that the SLMC did not want elections, but felt
compelled to run to prevent the TMVP from contesting
virtually unchallenged. The candidate said that he was
forced to accept police protection. He received a letter on
LTTE letterhead telling him to withdraw from the election,
but believed the letter more likely came from the GSL, via
the TMVP. Four days later, he received a letter on TMVP
letterhead saying the Eastern Province belongs to the TMVP,
that the TMVP rescued this territory, and Muslims cannot
claim this land. The candidate believed that the LTTE
carried out the killing of two TMVP cadres on a motorbike in
Kalawanchikudy, but that the intended target of the attack
was probably SLMC candidate Basheer Segudawood, who withdrew
from the government in February. The candidate cited talks
between the TNA and SLMC about jointly contesting the
Provincial Council elections in Batticaloa District, and
speculated that the LTTE believes the SLMC is trying to drive
a wedge between the TNA and LTTE. The candidate noted
complaints of assaults against SLMC candidates in
Valachchenai, which he said were the responsibility of Deputy
Minister Ameer Ali. He said the SLMC had appointed polling
monitors in Muslim areas, but that the TMVP would not allow
SLMC monitors in other areas. The SLMC felt that after the
elections, they would be threatened by both the LTTE and TMVP
(particularly TMVP member Santhan). The candidate firmly
expected TMVP weapons to re-emerge after elections.

Reactions by Political Parties
to Election Results
--------------


7. (U) The main opposition UNP has had trouble articulating
a consistent position on the local elections. UNP Leader
Ranil Wickramasinghe took to the streets dismissing the
election as a sham in which UNP candidates would have faced
death threats if they had contested. UNP national organizer
S.B.Dissanayake (formerly JVP, then SLFP, now UNP and
believed to be trying to get back to the SLFP) has been
quoted as saying the UNP would have won if they had contested
Batticaloa. UNP General Secretary of Tissa Attanayake (who
has clashed recently with Ranil loyalists) stated the UNP
must run at the provincial poll, and that not contesting is
not a solution.


9. (U) In press reports, the EPDP stated, "the TMVP,s
attempt to rig polls in the Batticaloa Municipal area was
prevented due to the heavy deployment of security forces
personnel. But in the remote areas the TMVP had been
successful in rigging votes." The TNA rejected the elections
as rigged. Many Tamil civil society leaders claimed that TNA
MPs have been ineffective and have therefore lost the support
of the people. However, given the level of TMVP
intimidation, and the non-participation of the TNA because of
justified concerns that their candidates might be
assassinated, it is difficult to assess how much latent
support exists for the party. TULF leader Anandasangaree
accepted the result as legitimate.

Foreign Ministry Reaction to Election Results
--------------


10. (U) In a briefing for foreign missions on March 12,
Minister of Foreign Affairs Rohitha Bogollagama welcomed the
completion of the elections as a triumph for democracy,

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saying: "Firstly, it is an important milestone in the
government's policy of restoring democratic rights to the
people in areas that were previously dominated by the LTTE.
Secondly, we are seeing the transition of the TMVP into the
democratic political mainstream. Thirdly, the successful
conclusion of this election augurs well for the planned
Provincial Council elections that will follow this May in the
entire Eastern Province as recommended by the 23 January 2008
proposals of the All Party Representative Committee (APRC)."
PolOff (attending on behalf of Ambassador) asked whether the
GSL would move to disarm the paramilitaries, now that they
have entered the political process, and whether the GSL
believed it could provide a conducive environment for broader
participation by other parties in the provincial council
elections in May. The Minister responded that there were no
paramilitaries in Sri Lanka. He said it was understandable
that the TNA, which has supported the political goals of the
LTTE, would have trouble contesting in areas formerly
controlled by the terrorists. Foreign Secretary Palitha
Kohona interjected that the Defense Secretary had given
assurances that no one other than government security forces
would be permitted to bear arms in GSL-controlled areas. The
Japanese DCM asked when the government would move to
implement the 13th Amendment according to its decision of
January 23. Only the Pakistani Ambassador congratulated the
government on holding a successful poll in the East.

Looking Ahead to Provincial Council Elections
--------------


11. (U) On March 14, the GSL announced plans to hold
provincial council elections in the Eastern Province.
Elections Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake said that
nominations would be accepted from March 27 to April 3. The
polling date is May 10. Elections will be held in Ampara,
Batticaloa and Trincomalee districts, for a total of 37
Provincial Council seats. Provincial councils in the north
and east are part of the government's power-sharing plan.
The Thirteenth Amendment to the Constitution (1987) provided
for establishment of the councils, but there have been no
provincial council elections in the north and east since

1988. The earlier Northeastern Council was dissolved in 1990.


12. (U) The UNP, JVP, and SLMC have all announced that they
will contest the provincial elections. The TMVP has not yet
made a formal announcement, but they are widely expected to
run, probably in alliance with other constituent government
parties. UNP MP Jayalath Jayawardene told the press that the
UNP's nomination board would be appointed after the Working
Committee meeting on March 25. Leaders from the UNP and JVP
have urged the GSL to demobilize armed groups. Both the UNP
and JVP have a low support base in the Tamil-majority
Batticaloa district. However, there is a significant Sinhala
constituency in eastern Ampara district, and a Sinhalese
population in Trincomalee roughly equal to the Tamil
population. The SLMC, led by Rauff Hakeem, will likely come
to an arrangement with the UNP in selected districts.
Hakeem's main Muslim competitor, Ferial Ashraff's National
Unity Alliance, a member of the government, will probably
come to a similar understanding with the President's SLFP.


13. (U) On March 18, a Batticaloa district TNA MP said that
the party will not contest the elections, as the TNA
"steadfastly opposed the de-merger of the North Eastern
Provincial Council in January 2007" by the GSL. The MP cited
Indian Prime Minister Singh's late 2006 "commitment to the
restoration of the merged North-East." The TNA is expected
to release an official statement soon after the return of its
parliamentary group leader Sampanthan from India.


14. (C) COMMENT: It is encouraging that all political
parties, with the significant exception of the TNA, are
planning to contest the May 10 Eastern Provincial Council
elections. Embassy remains concerned, however, that the

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short deadline will leave little time to resolve deficiencies
noted in the local elections process - the failure to disarm
and demobilize paramilitaries, threats and violence against
some candidates, and voter intimidation. Two important
thresholds for a more free and fair election in May would be:
1) the credible disarming of all paramilitaries operating in
the east; and 2) a critical mass of parties from all parts of
the spectrum to contest the election. Under these
circumstances, there is a chance that the voters of the
Eastern Province will have the opportunity to make a free
choice. The conduct of these elections will be an important
test of the government's resolve to move toward empowerment
of its minorities, a critical and so far largely missing
element in its strategy to address the root causes of Sri
Lanka's ethnic conflict.
BLAKE