NEW PRO-RUSSIA PARTY LEAST LIKELY TO SUCCEED

UNCLAS CHISINAU 000639 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UMB E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM MD SUBJECT: NEW PRO-RUSSIA PARTY LEAST LIKELY TO SUCCEED Sensitive But Unclassified. Please Protect Accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: A new pro-Russian political party in Moldova is promoting identity politics and Soviet nostalgia. Despite high-level support, it may be too late on the scene, and too ethnically centered, to establish itself as a significant player before the March 2009 parliamentary elections. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Even the name of the party, New Moldavia (with the "i"), reflects nostalgia for the Soviet spelling of what is now the Republic of Moldova. The party manifesto calls for local autonomy, equal rights for ethnic communities, bi-lingualism (including the right to use Cyrillic script to write the Moldovan/Romanian language),and a more pro-Russian foreign policy. It promotes the "denazification" of those responsible for invading Transnistria in the 1990s. ¶3. (SBU) New Moldavia calls for the cancellation of the 2005 law on the special status of Transnistria, and promotes a federalized polity which reflects the 2003 Kozak Memorandum: a bicameral parliament, with a quota for each federal region in the higher house (50% of votes for "Moldova," 25% each for Transnistria and Gagauzia),and the right to secede if the new state loses its international status (in practice, meaning if the new state unites with Romania). In addition to equal status for Gagauzia and Transnistria, the party supports federative status for Chisinau, Taraclia raion (inhabited predominantly by ethnic Bulgarians),and three other subgroups--northern raions, southern raions and central raions. ¶4. (SBU) The party's foreign policy calls for Russian guarantees of Moldova's integrity and neutrality, and negotiations on workers' rights in the EU, in the place of attempts to integrate with Europe. Russia, the party states, should be Moldova's principal economic and political partner; Europe should be treated with caution and skepticism. ¶5. (SBU) The founders of New Moldavia are journalist Vladimir Lorcencov, Eugen Solari from the Russian Regnum news agency and Veaceslav Craciun, an otherwise unknown adviser to Gagauz governor Mikhail Formuzal. Lorcenov was misidentified in BBC reports as working for Komsomolskaya Pravda v Moldove newspaper. The BBC also erred in identifying the original source of the story as Infotag; the actual source was the Regnum.ru news agency, run by Modest Kolerov, a former Putin advisor in charge of the CIS and Compatriots Abroad office (this office identified and funded pro-Russian organizations in the CIS). Solari is remembered for splashing khefir on an OSCE delegation, including OSCE Ambassador William Hill, in 2004. Signing on as supporters are former Prime Minister Vasile Tarlev, Gagauzia Governor Mikhail Formuzal, and the Moldovan Orthodox Bishop of Balti. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: New Moldavia hopes to reduce Moldova to an ethnic-based collection of cantons, dependent on Russia and estranged from Europe. Despite its two prominent supporters, and likely Russian subsidies, it has little chance of success. We believe that Moldova is mature enough politically to maintain its integrity, stick with the parties it already has, and seek the best of both Europe and the CIS. Like the strongly pro-Romanian National Liberal Party, which won barely one percent of the vote in 2007 local council elections, New Moldavia is highly unlikely to breach the six percent threshold in next year's parliamentary elections to obtain seats in Parliament unless former Prime Minister Tarlev and Bashkan Formuzal actively campaign for the party. End comment. KIRBY