PRESIDENT VORONIN PUSHING FORWARD ON TRANSNISTRA SETTLEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000417 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/UMB E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS ECON MD SUBJECT: PRESIDENT VORONIN PUSHING FORWARD ON TRANSNISTRA SETTLEMENT Classified By: Ambassador Michael D. Kirby for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In an April 14 meeting with DAS David Merkel and the Ambassador, President Voronin focused predominantly on Transnistria, underlining repeatedly that settling this conflict was Moldova's most pressing issue. Voronin said he had presented proposals for confidence-building measures to Smirnov at their April 11 meeting, and was now waiting for the Transnistrian leader's promised response. Voronin asked that the U.S. join the GOM, the guarantor states and the EU in presenting the status and roadmap documents to the Transnistrians. DAS Merkel promised that the USG would review these documents (which the USG had received in 2006) and respond promptly. President Voronin was upbeat about the possibilities for rapid progress, suggesting either April 20 or May 10 as possible dates for a 5 plus 2 meeting to discuss these proposals. END SUMMARY. When Voronin Met Smirnov -------------- ¶2. (C) In a cordial meeting with DAS David Merkel and Ambassador Kirby on April 14, Voronin delivered a lengthy monologue followed by responses to questions focused predominantly on Transnistria. Voronin described his April 11 meeting with Smirnov, the first meeting of the two men in almost seven years. Voronin said he had presented Smirnov with proposals for confidence-building measures. Smirnov had promised that within two weeks, working groups would elaborate the TN proposals for the final document. Voronin was upbeat about the possibilities for rapid progress, suggesting either April 20 or May 10 as possible dates for an extended 5 plus 2 to present and discuss the proposal Moldova has been reviewing with Russia since the fall of 2006. ¶3. (C) Voronin noted that he was born in the Transnistria area, and felt strongly that the country should be united and the conflict settled. Despite the seven-year gap since his last contact with Smirnov, Voronin suggested that the time was not completely lost, as various steps forward had been made. Voronin Wants USG to jointly Propose Status Document -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Voronin said that Moldova had already elaborated a set of measures to be discussed in the 5 plus 2 format. He said that there were three documents, the first on the status of Transnistrian autonomy, providing the main principles for autonomy, along with a declaration on guarantees and a roadmap. The document on the principles and guarantees for a settlement to the Transnistrian conflict had been drafted in 2005, and passed to the USG, Russia and Ukraine in November 2006. Though no copy was given to the Transnistrian side, the Russians, Voronin noted, passed a copy to them. Voronin would like this set of documents to be presented to the Transnistrians by the guarantor and observer states rather than by Moldova. Voronin asked the USG to join as a co-presenter. DAS Merkel said he understood the tight time frame, and assured that the USG would review the documents and get back to the GOM promptly. Voronin stressed that his main priority was the reunification of the country, but not at any price, and said he hoped for Transnistrian participation in the 2009 parliamentary elections (i.e., a political settlement before the elections). Mistakes were Made -------------- ¶5. (C) President Voronin reviewed at length the history of the conflict, which has passed through several stages since 1992. He noted that there were greater possibilities for settlement at the very beginning, but many mistakes were made, and since then the Transnistrian position on independence had hardened. He cited unsuccessful attempts at resolution before 2001, and the 2003 Kozak Memorandum disaster, before noting the positive impact made by the introduction of EUBAM in 2005. He described Russia's blockade of Moldovan wine and agricultural products as part of an attempt to cause the Moldovan economy to collapse. As a result, Voronin said, Moldova's production of alcohol decreased, but its economy proved resilient. Left and Right Bank Already have Some Cooperation -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Voronin offered several examples of areas where the two banks were already cooperating. Some 430 Transnistrian economic entities were already registered in Chisinau, of which more than 200 were exporting and importing. In the first three months of this year, Transnistrian exports to the EU increased by 30 percent. Thus the notion of a Moldovan economic blockade on Transnistria is not valid anymore. ¶7. (C) Some 7,000 Transnistrian students are studying at Moldovan institutions of higher learning, Voronin said. An association of Transnistrian students in Moldova, ASTRA, has been established to help address their special needs. (Note: Voronin addressed ASTRA members at their conference in February.) Transnistrian athletes CHISINAU 00000417 002 OF 002 participate on Moldovan national teams and Transnistrian teams take part in national sports leagues. The Chisinau airport offers the same services to Transnistrian residents as to right-bank Moldovans. Citizens on both sides of the river have full access to each other's territory and can travel freely. Over 300,000 Transnistrians have Moldovan passports, which are issued to them free of charge. Voronin concluded that the balance and mix of nationalities on both sides was approximately the same, and hence the conflict is not ethnic, but purely political, serving the interests of certain political elites and certain neighboring states. Schedule acceptable to Russia and Ukraine -------------- ¶8. (C) President Voronin said he had raised these issues with the Russian Federation, and reported that Russia was "not against" the schedule he proposed for 5 plus 2. Voronin had met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Ogryzko earlier in the day, and reported that Ukraine was also supportive. He noted that Ukrainian president Yushchenko was planning to visit Moldova later in the month (April 25-27). Voronin will not Settle at Any Cost; No Secret Deals -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) DAS Merkel cautioned against agreeing to permanent neutrality, noting that Washington wanted Moldova to have the freedom to choose its partners. It would be wrong for Moldova to make any decision that limited its freedom in conducting relations with the EU. The President responded that he was not prepared to settle at any cost, and ruled out any steps that would lead to destroying the country. He reassured DAS Merkel and Ambassador Kirby that he would reach no secret agreements, and that he would consult with the USG along the SIPDIS way. Comment: Progress on Transnsitria -------------- ¶10. (C) President Voronin seemed pleased with the breakthrough created by meeting with his opponent. Though his timeframe for 5 plus 2 may prove to be overly optimistic, he appeared ready to keep pressing forward on bringing the sides to the negotiating table. Having met with his chief opponent, Voronin now appears to be buoyed by a greater sense of unfettered optimism. Simultaneously, we have noticed in our own contacts with the Transnistrian side that a more pragmatic, less polemical approach to cooperation on MCC is emerging. Voronin appeared eager to reach a Transnistrian settlement so that parliament can ratify it and necessary electoral code changes at least six months before the spring 2009 elections. Meanwhile, the opposition remains highly skeptical of Voronin's motives and fears he is making a push for a Transnistrian settlement now so that his unpopular ruling communist party can win another four year term in office. ¶11. (U) DAS Merkel has cleared this cable. KIRBY