A "THIRD WAY" TO AVOID A CRISIS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000080 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/2/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SUBJECT: A "THIRD WAY" TO AVOID A CRISIS? REF: A. BANGKOK 1619 (CONFLICT OVER CONSTITUTION) ¶B. BANGKOK 1612 (HOW HOT IS IT?) CHIANG MAI 00000080 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, CG, ConGen, Chiang Mai. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Over 130 academics from across the country have launched a campaign to find a way out of the current political stalemate. Their plan calls for a more complete constitutional amendment process than the one currently underway, resulting in an entirely new constitution that would have to be approved by referendum. Though undoubtedly a long-shot, these academics have previously succeeded in positively influencing the political process, and are hopeful they can do so again in an effort to bring Thailand back from the abyss they say it is walking into. End Summary. -------------- -- Academics Pitch a "Third Way" Out -------------- -- ¶2. (SBU) On May 28, we met with two members of Midnight University -- a group of politically-minded academics that has functioned for over 10 years, and claims to be independent from Thailand's main political parties. On May 27, the group held a press conference at Chiang Mai University during which it issued a statement signed by 137 professors from universities across the country proposing what it calls the "Third Way" out of Thailand's current political stalemate. The group's proposals call for the establishment of a truly independent constitution-drafting committee with broad participation by all sectors of society, the drafting of an entirely new constitution, ample opportunity for public debate on the draft, and a referendum to approve that charter. ¶3. (C) Our Midnight University contacts told us that the May 27 press conference was widely covered by both broadcast and print media, but that only the print media carried the story in any detail. They explain this discrepancy by asserting that the broadcast outlets are in the camps of either the pro-government People's Power Party (PPP),the opposition Democrat Party (DP), or the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) -- and therefore have so far given the "third way" short shrift. The group hopes, however, to turn this tide by holding a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand in Bangkok sometime in the next two weeks. ¶4. (C) Midnight University has no plans to formally approach either the ruling PPP or the opposition DP to sell this idea. They told us they see the PPP as dead-set on pushing through its specific amendments to re-empower former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and the DP and PAD as equally entrenched in their opposition to any amendments. The group does, however, plan to get the Thai general public to focus on the third way through the media and by displaying green flags, stickers and ribbons, much as it did in the run-up to the promulgation of the 1997 constitution. At that time politicians were considering making significant changes to a draft charter that had been produced by a drafting assembly that included broad civil society representation. That campaign against amending the 1997 constitution was successful despite significant will on the part of those holding political power to amend it. ¶5. (C) Despite its current efforts, Midnight University believes the political temperature in Thailand needs to rise further before the general public will give serious consideration to the Third Way. Right now, our contacts asserted, the PAD rallies and pro-Thaksin counter-demonstrations are fairly well-organized and generally non-violent. If that dynamic were to change significantly, they believe their campaign may gain momentum. -------------- More Coup Speculation -------------- ¶6. (C) Regarding coup speculation, the Midnight University President said, "The people with guns will do what they want and the public will accept it." He sought to minimize PAD's role in the 2006 coup that ousted then-Prime Minister Thaksin, asserting that those who staged the coup were not prepared to assume political power: a year later, he noted the military-appointed government and higher powers did not choose the PAD-favored candidate to take over as army commander, instead choosing General Anupong Paochinda over General Saprang Kalayanamitr. Had PAD worked closely with the military on the coup plot, he opined that the military would have been better prepared to assume a political role. (Comment: It would indeed be inaccurate to see PAD as directing the coup and post-coup CHIANG MAI 00000080 002.2 OF 002 governance. Nevertheless, PAD clearly played a significant role in 2005-6 by legitimizing the concept of extra-constitutional change, signaling to military leaders that the public would accept a coup as a resolution to the political crisis that the PAD had stoked. End Comment). ¶7. (C) Instead, Midnight University believes the most important factor in determining the timing of the 2006 coup and deciding whether to stage one at all was the annual reshuffle of military officers, which typically takes place in late September/early October. Similarly, if there were to be a coup in 2008, Midnight University believes it would more likely be linked to military reshuffles than to the actions of PAD or pro-Thaksin demonstrators. This time, however, our contacts opined that there would need to be significant bloodshed before the military would step in. -------------- Populism As An Issue -------------- ¶8. (C) Regarding how to avoid future stalemates, and why the current one came about, Midnight University expressed the view that the 2006 coup and resulting constitution failed to resolve the underlying tensions in Thai society. Those who support Thaksin's and the PPP's populist policies will continue to clash with the elites, they asserted, regardless of whether there is another coup, because the PPP or a reincarnation of it under a different name will continue to score election victories. ¶9. (C) One solution they recommend is to enshrine populist policies in a new constitution. Doing so would, they opined, reduce the PPP's public appeal by depriving it of the heart of the platform on which it has campaigned since Thaksin won his first election in 2001. Midnight University did not have an answer when we asked if it had considered the long-term effects on the Thai economy of embodying such policies in a new charter. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) The Third Way is clearly a long-shot at this point; the political situation remains fluid and dynamic. However, support within the governing coalition for the amendments currently on the table may be somewhat shaky, and an alternative proposal could conceivably draw some interest. One principal difficulty that Midnight University and others in civil society currently face is that the political environment is so polarized that virtually any proposal for political reform will be viewed primarily in terms of whether it furthers the agenda of Thaksin or that of his opponents. Virtually no person or group can be seen as disinterested and objective in advocating a way forward. Although we believe Midnight University figures are genuinely distant from the political parties, we would also note it has a reputation for being on the left fringe of the political spectrum, and thus may have difficulty injecting its concept -- which appears not yet fully developed -- into mainstream discourse. ¶11. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok. MORROW