KACHIN STATE: A SNAPSHOT OF REFERENDUM ACTIVITIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000065 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR DRL, IO AND EAP NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/25/2018 TAGS: PHUM PGOV BM TH SUBJECT: KACHIN STATE: A SNAPSHOT OF REFERENDUM ACTIVITIES REF: A. CHIANG MAI 63 ¶B. CHIANG MAI 43 CHIANG MAI 00000065 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai. REASON: 1.4 (d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Kachin National Organization (KNO) contacts in Thailand told us that, despite KNO efforts to mount a "vote no" campaign in Burma's upcoming constitutional referendum, they nonetheless expect most Kachin voters to check the "yes" box. Many would do so out of fear, our interlocutors asserted, as they described the coercive tactics the regime is employing to secure "yes" votes. They also passed us a document they claim was written by the regime that details voting procedures at polling stations. From this we can draw some conclusions about ways the regime could determine how individuals vote, despite its public assurances the referendum will be free and fair. End Summary. -------------- Vote No Versus Boycott -------------- ¶2. (C) On April 25, we met with Hkamhpa Sadan-, General Secretary for Foreign Affairs of the Kachin National SIPDIS Organization, and Maran Zau, in charge of the KNO's "vote no" efforts inside Burma for the May 10 constitutional referendum. (Note: Though the Kachin National Organization is an exile group based in Chiang Mai, it still has links with the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO),which operates inside Burma. Though these links do not include policy coordination at the organizations' top levels, our KNO contacts told us the connections between their youth groups are strong.) Kachin State has a population of some 1.2 million, slightly more than two percent of Burma's total population of approximately 55 million. Since no census has been conducted since the 1980s, we cannot reliably estimate how many of the State's residents might be eligible to vote in the upcoming referendum. ¶3. (C) Hkamhpa Sadan, who had just returned from Laiza on the Burma-China border, where the KIO has an office, told us the KNO continues to encourage Kachin to vote no in the upcoming referendum. Posters, leaflets, and t-shirts carrying the vote no message have been posted and distributed, mostly by students, religious leaders, and lawyers, he said. This information tracks with various media reports, and with information obtained from the Chiang Mai-based Human Rights Education Institute for Burma, which told us late last month in a meeting with a USAID/OTI visitor that some of its trainees were involved in putting up posters at universities in Kachin State. ¶4. (C) On voting day, Hkamhpa Sadan said the KNO will have undercover observers posted at polling stations, but did not elaborate on how many. He also shared that some of these observers would participate in a seminar in Thailand held April 26-29 to provide tips on how to document abuses on voting day. The discussions would also serve to exchange views on how to respond to the expected announcement of the constitution's approval sometime after the completion of the May 10 vote, he added. ¶5. (C) While the Kachin Independence Organization has not yet taken a clear public position, Hkamhpa Sadan asserted the KIO supported a boycott of the May 10 referendum, because the regime did not adhere to the demands it tabled while participating in the National Convention. Hkamhpa Sadan opined that a KIO boycott would not be very effective, however. He speculated that only 10 percent of eligible voters in Kachin State would respect a boycott. When asked why, he underscored the efficacy of the regime's coercive tactics. He pointed out that only 10 percent of Kachin are either KIO members or have family in the organization, and opined that this portion of the population could afford to boycott because the KIO would protect it from reprisals exacted by the regime. The other 90 percent of Kachin were not so fortunate, he observed dejectedly. CHIANG MAI 00000065 002.2 OF 002 -------------- -------------- No Constitution, No Land, No Household -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Hkamhpa Sadan emphasized that Ohn Myint, the regime's regional commander overseeing Kachin State, was well-known for his brutality. In fact, he speculated that while not probable, many Kachin might vote against the constitution because they see the referendum as a chance to vote either for or against the military, and hence an opportunity to voice their approval or disapproval of him. Ohn Myint and the regime have ordered the Union Solidarity Development Association (USDA - the regime's mass-member mobilization organization) to tell eligible voters that failure to participate and vote yes will result in denial of future deeds to land or approval of household registry documents. Hkamhpa Sadan said he believes the regime can enforce this, because it will know whether each individual voter votes in favor of or against the constitution. ¶7. (C) When asked if he knows how the regime will gather this information, Hkamhpa Sadan shared with us what he claimed was a regime-authored document he recently obtained while in Laiza. The document provides some detail about voting procedures and the lay-out of polling stations. According to the document, upon entering the station, voters will have to show their identity cards and sign the registry. They will then receive a ballot and go to the voting booth to make their selections. Once finished, they reportedly would have to sign the ballot and show it to the station supervisor before placing it in the ballot box. Ostensibly, the station supervisor needs to see each ballot in order to compare the signature on it to that on the voter's ID card and the signature on the voter registry. While reviewing the signature, the supervisor will of course have no trouble noting which box the voter has checked. This scenario, Hkamhpa Sadan observed, makes voting no extremely difficult. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The coercive tactics Hkamhpa Sadan outlined and the purported document he shared with us revealed widespread belief of the regime's intent to manipulate the vote and ensure its constitution is approved by hook or by crook. Embassy Rangoon notes that the KNO has little to no presence inside Burma and would likely face difficulties in effectively monitoring voting. The criminalization of criticism of the proposed constitution and the lack of information about the document already reflects a seriously flawed process. To the degree that the allegations of further manipulation reported by Thai-based exiles prove accurate, the USG and broader international community will be in a stronger position to challenge the credibility of the entire process. Underlining these abuses and tactics in discussions with other governments will enhance our contention that this referendum is a sham, and perhaps even influence the responses of countries in the region to the Burmese regime's ongoing perversion of the democratic process. ¶9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassies Bangkok and Rangoon. MORROW