SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: IMPLEMENTATION STALLED ON IDEAS FROM

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000120 NOFORN SIPDIS NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM PTER PHUM TH SUBJECT: SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: IMPLEMENTATION STALLED ON IDEAS FROM PEACE TALKS REF: A. BANGKOK 2410 (FEWER CASES OF ABUSE) ¶B. BANGKOK 2226 (NO CLEAR PATH TO STABILITY) ¶C. CHIANG MAI 79 (POL TURBULENCE PUSHES SOUTH TO BACK BURNER) CHIANG MAI 00000120 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, CG, ConGen, Chiang Mai. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) -------------- Summary and Comment -------------- ¶1. (S/NF) Consul General met for the first time since late May with Mark Tamthai, the Thai Government's point-man for secret talks between the RTG and southern insurgents. Tamthai said: -- implementation of a pilot "peace zone" in Yala city, worked out during the talks in May, is stalled due to indecision in the National Security Council and reluctance by the Royal Thai Army to take the lead in the peace process; -- the peace zone plan would include the release of a long-jailed Muslim religious leader, a decision that would likely require Cabinet approval; -- the marked drop in human rights abuses committed by RTG security forces in recent months (Ref A) is largely thanks to RTA Commander-in-Chief Anupong's personal commitment and constant preaching against such acts; and -- the next round of talks is scheduled for late August at a location to be determined. ¶2. (S/NF) Comment: Tamthai is encouraged by what he cites as consensus within the RTG that a non-military solution is needed to end the violence in the south - though he admits there is no agreement on what such a solution should look like. He is frustrated at the lack of progress in implementation of the pilot peace zone plan and other confidence-building measures, which he attributes to three factors: national political stalemate (Ref B),indecision and poor leadership in the NSC, and General Anupong's reluctance to have the RTA out in front in the peace process. End Summary and Comment. -------------- Pilot Peace Zone Plan Outlined -------------- ¶3. (S/NF) CG met August 13 in Chiang Mai with Dr. Mark Tamthai, Director of Payap University's Institute of Religion, Culture and Peace and point-man for the RTG's secret dialogue with southern insurgents. Tamthai reported little progress since we had last met in late May, following his trip to Bali where he had met with insurgents to work out a plan to create a pilot "peace zone" in the southern city of Yala (Ref C). According to Tamthai, the peace zone would essentially be a 45-day cease-fire, subject to extension if both sides approved. A key element of the plan would be RTG willingness to release from prison a local Muslim leader known as Baba Betong (as heard). Betong reportedly is a well known, elderly religious figure who has been imprisoned for some 10 years. His role, if released, would be to sermonize among the local populace in support of the cease-fire - a role insurgent leaders believe he could do well. The cease-fire would also, of course, have to be honored by RTG security forces and area insurgent commanders. Tamthai cautioned that, even if this all came to pass, the peace zone could still be imperiled by outside spoilers who could try to infiltrate Yala and violate the cease-fire. -------------- Lack of RTG Leadership -------------- ¶4. (S/NF) Tamthai expressed dismay that the National Security Council has done nothing to implement to the pilot plan or advance other elements of the peace process. He singled out NSC Secretary General Surapon Puanaiyaka, who during three months in office has not approved funding for any program under NSC auspices, and keeps rebuffing Tamthai's proposals by saying he needs more clarity before moving forward. Tamthai, who has long been critical of Surapon as overly cautious and no friend of the peace process (Ref D),expressed hope that Surapon might soon lose his NSC job. The two strikes against him, Tamthai said, were mishandling (unspecified) of the ongoing Preah Vihear CHIANG MAI 00000120 002.2 OF 002 temple dispute with Cambodia, and that fact that his political backer, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has fled abroad. ¶5. (S/NF) For implementation of the pilot peace zone plan, Tamthai has turned his hopes to RTA Commander-in-Chief Anupong Paochinda - with whom he is to meet in the coming days. Tamthai has long praised Anupong and his commitment to the peace process and the need to find a non-military solution to the south. However, Anupong firmly believes that leadership of the peace process must come from the civilian government, not the Army. Thus he is reluctant to approach the Cabinet to pitch the peace zone plan. Tamthai is now seeking to persuade Anupong to implement the Yala cease-fire as an "internal" RTA operation that would not require an approach to the Cabinet. However, he admitted the difficulty of bypassing the Cabinet given the plan's call for the release of Baba Betong. Tamthai added that former interim Prime Minister and current Privy Council member Surayud Chulanont, who oversaw the peace process during his time as PM, would also be discretely weighing in with General Anupong in support of implementing the pilot cease-fire. -------------- RTG Talking to the Right People? -------------- ¶6. (S/NF) Tamthai believes the pilot peace zone plan would be an important test for both the government and insurgents, and thus a key confidence-building measure. If it were to work, he said, then the RTG would know it was indeed engaging the right people in the secret peace talks - those who can exercise control over insurgent military commanders. CG asked about skeptics in the RTG or elsewhere who doubted those involved in the talks were the "right people." Tamthai replied that the talks have been going on long enough such that the insurgent representatives have been thoroughly checked out by RTG (and Malaysian) intelligence, all of whom conclude these are indeed the "right people." The only remaining skeptics, Tamthai said, were various individuals in the RTG who were involved in the issue long ago when the players were different. -------------- Anupong Credited for Drop in Human Rights Abuses -------------- ¶7. (S/NF) CG noted that observers of late have reported a marked drop in reports of human rights abuses committed by members of security forces fighting the insurgency. Tamthai agreed, and gave significant credit for this to General Anupong's personal commitment and constant preaching against such acts. -------------- Next Round of Talks in Late August -------------- ¶8. (S/NF) Since the late May round of talks in Bali - which was actually a stripped-down working meeting with Tamthai as the sole RTG participant - only one additional round has taken place. This was also a stripped-down version, which was held in Kuala Lumpur in July. According to Tamthai, the July meeting had little substantive content and was really just a meeting "for the sake of meeting, and to keep things going." Participants discussed logistical matters, such as one insurgent participant's need to renew his Thai passport, which he needs to travel from his base in Malaysia to the peace talks held in various third countries. The next round of talks with full participation is scheduled for late August in a location to be determined. At this meeting, the two sides will not discuss the pilot peace zone plan (which is already on the table),but rather will look at larger, longer-term issues such as autonomy formulas for the southernmost provinces. ¶9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok. MORROW