COMMUNIST ALLIANCE WITH KEY REGIONAL PARTY LEAVES BJP OUT

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000405 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM IN SUBJECT: COMMUNIST ALLIANCE WITH KEY REGIONAL PARTY LEAVES BJP OUT IN THE COLD, FOR NOW REF: A) CHENNAI 224 B) CHENNAI 020 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) and the Communist Party of India (CPI) have agreed to an alliance with Tamil Nadu's principal opposition party, the AIADMK, for next year's elections to the Indian parliament. The communists' decision to join with the AIADMK hurts the state's ruling DMK party, as well as the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance, whose constituent parties swept all 39 of Tamil Nadu's parliamentary seats in the 2004 elections. But the BJP is perhaps the biggest loser, as the decision to go with the left virtually rules out any hopes of a pre-poll AIADMK-BJP alliance in advance of next year's parliamentary elections. Without such an alliance, Tamil Nadu BJP leaders admit that they are unlikely to win even a single seat from the state. All is not lost for the BJP, however, as there is always the possibility that the AIADMK switches gears after the election and lends its support to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. End summary. Left reels in Jayalalithaa -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On December 5, CPM General Secretary Prakash Karat and AIADMK former Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa jointly declared their decision to "enter into an alliance." Karat said they would meet again to work out the modalities of the alliance and also told the media that his CPM has a common understanding with the CPI on the alliance. CPI State Secretary D. Pandian confirmed his party's decision to join the CPM in an alliance with the AIADMK. More parties abandon the Congress-DMK alliance -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The Left parties' defection is the latest from the grand alliance the DMK assembled that swept the 2004 parliamentary elections. The MDMK was the first to depart, quitting the alliance and joining with the AIADMK in 2006. In June 2008, the small, but influential PMK broke away from the DMK-led alliance (ref A). Asked whether the PMK will also join the AIADMK-MDMK-Left alliance, Jayalalithaa said: "wait and see." ¶4. (SBU) The Left parties' tie-up with Jayalalithaa's AIADMK is an unnatural one. The CPM and CPI's core constituencies, labor unions and government employees, harbor a good deal of animosity towards Jayalalithaa because of her "anti-labor policies." Memories of her dismissal of 150,000 striking government employees in a 2001 strike are still vivid. Moreover, the leftist's secular constituencies are likely to be repelled by Jayalalithaa's perceived closeness to right wing Hindu leaders, including lightning rod Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi (ref B). Media contacts told post that CPM General Secretary Prakash Karat is willing to ally with the AIADMK despite their ideological difference in an effort to make up for his party's expected losses in Kerala and West Bengal. BJP left out in the cold, at least until after elections -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Tamil Nadu BJP leaders have long hoped for a pre-poll alliance with Jayalalithaa's AIADMK. Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi's January 2008 visit to Jayalalithaa's home stoked those hopes. But the AIADMK-Left alliance shuts the door on that dream as the BJP and communists cannot coexist. This puts the Tamil Nadu BJP in a bad spot: its leaders have acknowledged to us that without an alliance with either the DMK or the AIADMK they cannot win a single parliamentary seat in the state. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: The AIADMK-Left alliance in Tamil Nadu is symptompatic of the BJP's wider woes in South India. With the exception of Karnataka, the BJP's weakness means that it needs allies in order to win parliamentary seats in the south, most critically in the big states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. But the party's alliance prospects look grim right now with the AIADMK teaming up with the communists in Tamil Nadu and the Andhra Pradesh BJP generally believed to be without a single ally. That said, a big BJP win in North India in the upcoming parliamentary elections could change the calculus entirely. In such a circumstance, there is no doubt that the some of the south's regional parties -- especially Jayalalithaa's AIADMK (with its ideological and personal affinities with the BJP) - would break pre-poll commitments and join the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance to form a government. Opportunism is, after all, the ruling principle of the southern regional parties. End comment. KAPLAN