India and the Maoist Threat

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000399 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM IN SUBJECT: India and the Maoist Threat ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Lieutenant General K.M. Seth, a retired counter-insurgency expert and the former Governor of Chhattisgarh, gave a November 21 lecture entitled "Naxalism: Threat to Internal Security" to the Chennai-based Centre for Security Analysis. Seth, who served as Chhattisgarh's Governor from June 2003 to January 2007, gave a candid and pessimistic state of India's efforts to combat the Maoist threat. He described a 10,000 square kilometer area in Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra as a "totally liberated" Maoist zone within which the insurgents operate training and logistics camps. Seth also said the Maoists are becoming increasingly sophisticated in terms of military tactics, and have links to groups outside of India. End summary. Enormous Maoist "liberated zone" in the heart of India -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Seth spoke at length of a 10,000 square kilometer heavily forested area known as "Abhujmadh," 7,000 of which fall in Chhattisgarh and 3,000 in neighboring Maharashtra. (Note: Chhattisgarh police sources have told Consulate General Mumbai that the area in question is even larger: approximately 21,000 square kilometers. End note.) According to Seth, Abhujmadh has virtually no roads. He said there is "no police or government authority" within Abujhmadh and that, as a private citizen, he can "now admit" that it is a "totally liberated" Maoist zone. Maoist groups operate training and logistics camps, as well as hold leadership meetings there, making Abujhmadh the "nerve center" for Maoist activities in India, according to Seth. He added that the population of Abujhmadh consists of around 20,000 tribal families scattered over 237 villages, all of whom live in extremely primitive circumstances. ¶3. (SBU) To emphasize the utter lack of government control of Abhujmadh, Seth noted that the area has "never been surveyed" by the government of India. According the Seth, the Indian Space Research Organization provided a satellite survey of the region during the time he served as Governor. Seth said the state tried to follow-up the satellite survey with an actual on-the-ground survey, but the state's survey teams were unable to penetrate further than two to three kilometers into Abhujmadh before they were turned back by fear of mines and other Maoist defenses. Maoists show increasing "tactical expertise" -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Seth, a decorated ex-general with experience in counter-insurgency operations in the northeast, discussed a 2005 Maoist attack on that killed 56 police officers at remote Chhattisgarh police station. He explained that the Maoists completely encircled the station in the dead of night, used high-powered lights to blind the police sentries, and attacked them using vehicle mounted machine guns. Seth described the attack as a "sophisticated classical military engagement" that demonstrated their increasing "tactical expertise." Maoists look outside India for inspiration -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Seth said there are no direct links between Indian and Nepalese Maoists, but did say India's Maoists draw "inspiration" from the accomplishments of their neighbors to the north. He said that in a 2005 conversation a captured Indian Maoist expressed amazement to him over what the Nepalese Maoists had accomplished in just a decade, especially when compared to the protracted struggle in India. Seth did say that there are "definite and growing" links between the Maoists and Sri Lanka's Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE),citing the presence of two LTTE representatives at the Maoist's 2007 9th Congress. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: Seth, freed from the restraints of working for the government, was pessimistic about the state of India's efforts to quell the Maoist insurgency. His description of Abujhmadh as a "totally liberated zone" in which the Maoists operate freely and openly is especially troubling. Whether the Maoists have actually "liberated" Abujhmadh is questionable. It seems more likely that they control this swath largely because the state and federal governments have failed to show interest in governing it themselves. But either way, Abujhmadh's 10,000 square kilometers -- an area roughly the size of Lebanon -- is an impressive start to the Maoists' effort to set up a parallel government within India. End comment. KAPLAN