LITTLE SUPPORT FOR TAMIL TIGERS IN INDIA DESPITE

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000039 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREF PREL PTER IN CE SUBJECT: LITTLE SUPPORT FOR TAMIL TIGERS IN INDIA DESPITE CEASEFIRE'S END REF: 2007 CHENNAI 690 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Recent events in Sri Lanka, including the Sri Lankan government's decision to formally withdraw from the ceasefire agreement and target the Tamil Tiger leadership, have been widely covered in Tamil Nadu media. Despite the coverage, India's Tamils remain lukewarm to the occasional appeal to "pan-Tamil" sentiment. Popular revulsion against the Tamil Tiger's 1991 assassination of Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi near Chennai means there is virtually no political space for supporters of the Tamil Tigers in Tamil Nadu. The few remaining political leaders known to support the Tamil Tigers exist on the margins of Tamil Nadu politics. Police contacts dispute media reports indicating Tamil Tiger activities are on the rise in the state while emphasizing their continued commitment to fighting the terrorist group. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) The Tamil Nadu media closely covers the Sri Lankan conflict. but recent events on the island nation have received particularly close attention. The dramatic October 22 air raid on the Sri Lankan Air Force's Anuradhapura base by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam's "Air Tigers" received wide coverage. Then the November 2 air strike which killed Thamilchelvan, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam's political leader, created a stir especially after Chief Minister Karunanidhi's controversial poetic eulogy of the slain Tamil Tiger (reftel). In December, the government of Sri Lanka's claims that it injured Prabhakaran lead to much speculation about the elusive Tamil Tiger leader's health and even to stories that his wife had fled to Tamil Nadu. In January the media also reported extensively on the Sri Lankan government's decisions to place underwater mines in its side of the Palk Strait and to terminate of the 2002 ceasefire agreement. NO POPULAR SUPPORT FOR LTTE: RAJIV GANDHI ASSASSINATION "CHANGED EVERYTHING" -------------- --- ¶3. (SBU) With Sri Lanka heating up, we canvassed our contacts to get a sense of Tamil Nadu sentiment about events on the island. We spoke with security analysts, journalists, refugee leaders, as well as government and police officials. The most consistent message we heard was that revulsion at the 1991 assassination of Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) "decisively" turned Tamil Nadu against the terrorist group. While acknowledging that pro-LTTE sentiment was common prior to the assassination, a media contact said that "1991 changed everything. There is no longer grassroots support for the LTTE." This view was echoed by police and government officials, as well as leaders in the Sri Lankan refugee community. ¶4. (SBU) When we inquired about Indian opinion on recent attacks targeting LTTE leadership, our contacts said Indian Tamils do not care that the Sri Lankan army is trying to decapitate the LTTE. A police intelligence officer said "If Prabhakaran (the LTTE's supreme leader) is killed, nobody would care. This is because there is 99% opposition to the LTTE in Tamil Nadu." The officer added that politicians like Vaiko, leader of the MDMK party, who are sympathetic to the LTTE have "learned the hard way that there is no support" for the LTTE cause in Tamil Nadu. ¶5. (SBU) Despite the consensus opposition to the LTTE in Tamil Nadu, there are still a few political players who openly support the LTTE. These include the MDMK and VCK parties. The VCK is part of the DMK-led ruling coalition; the MDMK allied with the opposition AIADMK. VCK General Secretary Thol Thirumavalavan caused a stir recently when he reportedly gave a speech in support of the banned terrorist organization. Condemnation of the speech came swiftly from across the political spectrum, leading Chief Minister Karunanidhi to warn Thirumavalavan to stop supporting the LTTE. The pro-LTTE parties are marginal and wield little political power: the MDMK holds six and the VCK two seats of the 234 total seats in the state's Legislative Assembly. NO "PAN-TAMIL" IDENTITY -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Our contacts also de-emphasized the idea that a "pan-Tamil" identity connects Indian and Sri Lankan Tamil communities. A policy analyst who has close contacts in Sri Lanka said the idea of historic ties between Indian and Sri Lankan Tamils is "overblown." He said "(Indian) Tamil youth don't care what is happening on the island. They are only concerned with material things." A police intelligence officer said much the same: "A Pan-Tamil identity does not exist." He pointed out that in the European and North American diasporas Sri Lankan and Indian Tamils do not mix, even worshiping at different temples. A Sri Lankan refugee organizer also noted that although Sri Lankan and Indian Tamils speak the same language, Indian Tamils know that a Sri Lankan Tamil "is from the island the moment he opens his mouth" because of his accent and the words he uses. REPORTS OF SMUGGLING AND ARRESTS ON THE RISE -------------- ¶7. (SBU) There has been a marked increase in media reports about seizures of smuggled supplies bound for Sri Lanka and of arrests of LTTE operatives in recent weeks. The stories concerning smuggling claimed that items as diverse as iron bars, plastic granules, detonators, and global positioning system units were seized by the authorities. Our police contacts downplayed the amount of smuggling and disputed some of the reports, while emphasizing their commitment to eliminating LTTE smuggling. Tacitly acknowledging the seizure of detonators, a police intelligence officer told us that the small size of the recent seizures demonstrates that LTTE smuggling has been pushed to the margins. Referring to a media report that the police had seized 5,000 detonators, he said "before we would see 75,000 or even 100,000 detonators at a time." With support for the LTTE existing solely at the margins, he said, only "small-time" smugglers are willing to work for the LTTE. ¶8. (SBU) Our contacts were split on the question of whether LTTE smuggling through Tamil Nadu is on the rise. Police contacts emphatically denied any such suggestion. The police intelligence officer said "we have no indication smuggling is on the rise." But a media contact said he believes the LTTE is likely stepping up its smuggling through Tamil Nadu because its other routes have been cut off, but acknowledged that any recent seizures are also due, in part, to increasingly effective police activities. (NOTE: The ruling DMK party -- which before 1991 was openly sympathetic to the LTTE -- is frequently charged with being "soft" on the LTTE. Such accusations, voiced primarily by the opposition AIADMK party, have been on the rise of late. But police officials and independent observers tell us that the DMK leadership (up to and including Chief Minister Karunanidhi himself) have clearly instructed the security forces to take all necessary actions against the LTTE, notwithstanding the periodic, politically motivated expressions of sympathy to the "suffering Tamils of Sri Lanka" articulated by DMK leaders. END NOTE.) ¶9. (SBU) Separate media reports had alleged that Prabhakaran's wife had surfaced in Tamil Nadu and that the police had arrested Thambidurai Parameswaran, the LTTE's "Tamil Nadu intelligence chief." Our police contacts disavowed these reports. But they did say that they are keeping close tabs on LTTE operatives and supporters in Tamil Nadu. "We have good intelligence and are not letting up on the few supporters that remain here," the intelligence officer told us, adding that those who remain are not in "operations," but rather help with logistics and propaganda. ALL QUIET, BUT ANOTHER REFUGEE WAVE COULD STIR THINGS UP -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) COMMENT: With the constant drumbeat of bad news coming from Sri Lanka, we were surprised that we did not hear at least a little more dissatisfaction or anger here in Tamil Nadu. Opposition to the LTTE remains strong in the state. The only issue that has seemed to resonate at all was the Sri Lankan government's decision to mine the Palk Strait, which has upset Tamil Nadu's fisherman who rely on the ability to fish in Sri Lanka's more bountiful waters. But with concerns about the mining limited to coastal communities, the general sense is that Tamil Nadu public opinion on Sri Lanka will not move much unless there is a massive influx of the sort in 1989 through 1992 when 122,000 refugees flooded into the state. A decision by Sri Lanka that leads to another flood of refugees, such as a military offensive into the LTTE's northern stronghold, could pierce the indifference. If faced with a new influx, we think the Tamil Nadu electorate would likely expect the DMK leadership to exert its influence in New Delhi to pressure the Sri Lankan government to pull back. END COMMENT. HOPPER