TAMIL NADU'S MAJOR PARTIES PRESSURE GOI TO INTERVENE IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000344 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PTER IN CE SUBJECT: TAMIL NADU'S MAJOR PARTIES PRESSURE GOI TO INTERVENE IN SRI LANKA ¶1. (SBU) Summary: An "all-party meeting" held on October 14 under the chairmanship of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Karunanidhi resolved that the Members of Parliament (MPs) from Tamil Nadu would resign if the Government of India does not ensure a ceasefire in Sri Lanka within two weeks. The "all-party meeting" was attended by the ruling DMK, the Congress Party (its major ally),the PMK party and the Communist parties, the CPI and the CPM. Since a mass resignation of MPs from Tamil Nadu could potentially destabilize the Government of India, the news of the resolution received wide coverage in the media. ¶2. (SBU) Summary, continued: Our sources, however, indicate that the threat to the UPA government might not be as serious as it appears in the press. They suggest that the "ultimatum" is a political tactic to blunt local criticism from the DMK's opponents, who have charged that the DMK has betrayed the interests of ethnic Tamils in Sri Lanka by staying on the sidelines in the face of atrocities by the Sri Lankan military against civilians. While they are outraged at the situation in Sri Lanka, it is unlikely that the DMK and its allies are actually prepared to fall on their swords over this issue. We expect that the GOI will come up with some kind of initiative that will allow the DMK and its allies to claim victory and restore local honor. End Summary "Genocidal" war crossing all limits, says Karunanidhi -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Chief Minister Karunanidhi told the Consul General on October 15 that an "all-party meeting" held the previous evening in Tamil Nadu resolved that the Members of Parliament from the state would resign if the Government of India fails to act to bring about a ceasefire in Sri Lanka within two weeks. Karunanidhi explained that the resolution was a "cry of anguish" by the attendees, adding that they believed that the "genocide" being perpetrated by the Sri Lankan military "crossed all limits" in violating the human rights of the island's Tamils. He emphasized that the meeting's attendees wanted to "communicate their anguish" about the plight of their ethnic brethren. ¶4. (SBU) Specifically, the all-party meeting adopted six resolutions: --urging the GOI to intervene and bring about a ceasefire in Sri Lanka; --demanding that the GOI stop supplying arms to the GSL; ; --warning that the MPs from the attending parties will resign if there is no ceasefire within two weeks; --encouraging the GOI to offer more humanitarian assistance; --demanding that the humanitarian assistance needs to be given to the Tamils directly via the International Red Cross or other aid agencies, not via the GSL; and --demanding that the GOI intervene to stop the Sri Lankan navy from killing fishermen from Tamil Nadu who happen to drift into Sri Lanka's territorial waters. Not quite "all parties" -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The "all-party meeting" included leaders of the Congress party, the PMK, and the Communist parties CPI and CPM, along with the ruling DMK party. The principal opposition parties, the AIADMK of former Chief Minister Jayalalitha, the MDMK party of former MP and prominent pro-Tamil agitator Vaiko, the relatively new DMDK party of actor Vijayakant, and the BJP had boycotted the meeting. The attendees, however, represent 37 of Tamil Nadu's 39 MPs, and local press highlighted the fact that their resignation could bring down the ruling coalition in New Delhi. Not much of a threat to UPA, say insiders -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Our contacts, however, tell us that the resolution of the "all-party meeting" is not a serious threat to the stability of the UPA government. A senior Congress Party leader characterized the resolution as a "paper tiger". He told us that the whole exercise was simple political maneuvering to counter AIADMK leader Jayalalitha's recent efforts to embarrass the DMK for its association with the Center, which many in Tamil Nadu see as ineffective in protecting Tamils on the other side of the Palk Strait. He noted, however, that the all-party resolution might help the Government of India mount a diplomatic effort with the Sri Lankan government to lessen the suffering of the Tamils in the CHENNAI 00000344 002 OF 002 island. ¶7. (SBU) A senior JOURNALIST from a well-respected daily characterized the resolution as "posturing". He said that the resolution is aimed at strengthening the hand of the GOI to pressure the Government of Sri Lanka (GSL) to avoid civilian casualties. He also told us that he expects the GOI to engage on the issue more publicly with the GSL to ensure relief supplies to those displaced by the conflict. Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Tamil Nadu's political temperature has been rising, fed with reports from Sri Lanka that a humanitarian catastrophe is looming as the army closes in on the last redoubts of the Tamil Tigers (LTTE). Karunanidhi's political opponents have used his silence on the issue -- and his closeness to the Congress Party -- to embarrass him. The characteristic drama of the octogenarian's response needs to be appreciated in this context. The impression we had from speaking with Karunanidhi was that this was an important issue for him. However, he said nothing about bringing down the government. In fact, he went out of his way to emphasize that the GOI's policy towards Sri Lanka would be decided by the central government in New Delhi. ¶9. (SBU) We expect that the GOI will be able to launch some sort of initiative, possibly focusing mainly on humanitarian aid, that will allow the DMK and its allies to claim success and remain in their parliamentary seats. The plight of Sri Lanka's Tamils is emotive, however, so we expect that their displacement and suffering will continue to resonate in Tamil Nadu's politics in the coming months as all of India gears up for expected parliamentary elections. End Comment. SIMKIN