SEPARATIST SENTIMENT PUTS ANDHRA PRADESH'S MAJOR PARTIES ON

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000028 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON PREL IN SUBJECT: SEPARATIST SENTIMENT PUTS ANDHRA PRADESH'S MAJOR PARTIES ON DEFENSIVE ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Demands for separate statehood for Andhra Pradesh's Telangana region have set the state's politics on edge again. The historically underdeveloped region has long harbored separatist demands, which in 2001 led to a split in the state's major regional political player, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). After joining with the TDP spin-off in the 2004 election by promising to consider separate statehood for Telangana, the ruling Congress party is now mishandling the issue. At the same time, TDP is facing dissension in the ranks on the Telangana question. Though it is uncertain which group will ultimately benefit, the issue of Telangana statehood will no doubt be an important factor in the 2009 state and national elections in Andhra Pradesh. END SUMMARY. TELANGANA'S HISTORY OF DISAPPOINTMENT -------------- ¶2. (U) The Telangana region is composed of the ten northern districts of Andhra Pradesh, including the capital Hyderabad. Merged into the state of Andhra Pradesh in 1956, Telangana has long harbored demands for separate statehood (with Hyderabad as its capital). These demands, in large part based on the fact that the region lags behind the rest of the state in terms of economic development, have long been a major factor in Andhra Pradesh politics. In the 1990s, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) promised separate statehood to Telangana but was unable to deliver due to opposition by the BJP's coalition partner Telugu Desam Party (TDP). In 2001, angry that his party blocked separate statehood, K. Chandrashekhar Rao quit the TDP to form the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) with the aim of achieving separate statehood for the region. The TRS joined the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in the 2004 elections and in return the UPA's Common Minimum Program committed the government to "consider the demand for formation of a Telangana state at an appropriate time after due consultations and consensus." But the TRS withdrew from the UPA in 2006 in frustration with the government's lack of progress towards independent statehood for Telangana. CONGRESS STUMBLES -------------- ¶3. (U) The leadership of Andhra Pradesh's ruling Congress party has recently struggled with the Telangana issue. On January 9 Veerappa Moily, General Secretary of the All India Congress Committee who also bears responsibility for Andhra Pradesh, said that the central government was "seriously considering" constituting a second States Reorganization Committee ("SRC") to address the demand for a separate Telangana. Congress leaders from the Telangana region, who support separate statehood, were dismayed. They worry that referral of the issue to a second SRC would be seen as dooming a separate Telangana to death by committee, thus giving an edge to the TRS. ¶4. (U) The turmoil in the Andhra Pradesh Congress went all the way to the top. Chief Minister Y.S.R. Reddy, who hails from the Andhra region and is believed to be unsympathetic to Telangana statehood, has given mixed signals. Returning from a meeting with Congress party leader Sonia Gandhi, Reddy reportedly instructed Congress members to refrain from airing their opinions on Telangana and the second SRC. Days later Reddy gave an interview in which he was quoted as saying Congress could not take action on separate statehood for Telangana in the absence of an absolute majority in India's Parliament, thus implying that the issue would be held in abeyance until after the 2009 elections. The Chief Minister's comments upset pro-Telangana Congress leaders. G. Venkataswamy, a senior Congress leader elected from Telangana, called on the people of Telangana to agitate for separate statehood now that Reddy "had exposed his true feelings" against statehood. Telangana Congress leaders even warned industry against purchasing land around Hyderabad, saying that a post-separation government would review such transactions. OPPOSITION TDP ALSO STRUGLES -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Andhra Pradesh's chief opposition party also is struggling with Telangana. The TDP, led by former Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu, consistently has stood against a separate Telangana. But while Congress was wracked with internal dissension, TDP also saw cracks develop in its once firm position. On January 13 T. Devender Goud, a former Andhra Pradesh Home Minister and Naidu confidant who is from Telangana, publicly urged the party to reconsider its stance against Telangana statehood. Goud reportedly said that the people had rejected the TDP's call for a united Andhra Pradesh in the last elections and added "it is time the party reviewed" its stance on the matter. With the media focus shifting from the Congress infighting to the TDP dissension, Naidu quickly moved to downplay the matter. After a very public meeting with Goud, Naidu told the press that "an appropriate action would be taken at the appropriate time." Former Industries Minister Vidhyadhar Rao told us that the TDP still stood for a "united Andhra." But Rao added that the TDP, as a regional party, would have "no choice" if India's central government chose separate statehood. CONFUSION REIGNS -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Media contacts tell us that the reemergence of the Telangana has both Congress and TDP on edge. Congress is caught between the differing priorities of the national and state parties. Our contacts say that YSR Reddy, from the coastal Andhra region of the state, has achieved his "lifetime ambition" of being Chief Minister and "does not want to go down in history" as the leader who permitted the division of Andhra Pradesh. Reddy's position is strong: he is the only Congress leader in the state with the stature to take on TDP. The remaining state Congress leaders are either octogenarians like Venkataswamy (who confronted Reddy on Telangana) or youngsters, all of whom lack the profile to compete with Naidu. ¶6. (SBU) The national Congress party may be more favorably disposed towards granting separate statehood because they feel they could pick up more seats in a grateful Telangana state than they would lose in what would remain of Andhra Pradesh. Our media contacts there say that with the state's elections in 2009 there is plenty of time for Congress to work through the Telangana issue. Ultimately, "it will depend on how desperate Sonia Gandhi is" to pick up more seats in Parliament. A Congress Member of the Legislative Assembly told us that if the party does not offer separate statehood, it will at least "offer a package" of special incentives to Telangana before the next election. ¶7. (SBU) TRS is, of course, quite pleased to have its cornerstone issue squarely in the public's mind. But the party is opposed to referring the issue to a second SRC for fear that a second SRC will only result in further delays. TRS founder K. Chandrashekhar Rao has threatened that his party members will resign from the state and national legislatures en masse if there is no decision on separate statehood by March 6. But our media contacts say with only five Members of Parliament at the center and sixteen Members of the Andhra Pradesh Legislative Assembly, TRS has no leverage. Naidu and the TDP are the worst off since they are unequivocally opposed to Telangana statehood. TDP's biggest priority is quelling the concerns of its Telangana-based officials like Goud, who some have suggested might split away from the TDP. ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: Andhra Pradesh sends the fifth largest number of members to the Indian Parliament, with UPA partners and the TRS currently controlling 36 of the Andhra Pradesh's 42 seats in the lower house. The UPA will likely need to keep hold of a substantial number of the Andhra Pradesh seats to remain in power in Delhi, a tall order for a government that is an incumbent in both the state and the center. It would be doubly difficult to remain competitive if the Congress does not carefully manage the question of Telangana statehood and the TRS, which will no doubt continue to try to exert pressure. Recent intra-Congress squabbling about Telangana does not bode well for the party's chances. Congress's saving grace is that its main opposition in the state -- the TDP -- is even worse off on Telangana. END COMMENT. ¶9. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi. HOPPER