FILM STAR SHAKES UP ANDHRA PRADESH POLITICS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000289 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL IN SUBJECT: FILM STAR SHAKES UP ANDHRA PRADESH POLITICS REF: CHENNAI 081 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: After years of speculation about his intentions, Telugu film superstar Chiranjeevi finally formed a political party, which he dubbed the "Praja Rajayam" (People's Party). Chiranjeevi, who aspires to be the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, unveiled the party's name at a mammoth rally on August 26 before more than 400,000 supporters. Since the announcement, a significant number of politicians have defected from other parties, especially the Telugu Desam Party, to join Chiranjeevi and talk has already begun about potential political alliances for Praja Rajayam. Although it is too early to tell precisely what impact Praja Rajayam will have on the upcoming elections, it is clear that Chiranjeevi will shake things up in the state. The Bharatiya Janata Party, which is in the political wilderness in Andhra Pradesh, stands the best chance of benefiting from the new developments there. End summary. Chiranjeevi finally decides to form party -------------- ¶2. (U) Chiranjeevi (actual name Konidella Sivasankara Varaprasad) is a long-time superstar in the Andhra Pradesh-based Telugu language film industry (reftel). Rumors that the film star would enter politics have surfaced periodically for years. The speculation intensified in 2007 when people close to Chiranjeevi, including his brother, confirmed that the actor was considering forming a political party. By early 2008 analysts considered his entry into Andhra Pradesh politics a foregone conclusion. The actor and his surrogates, for their part, kept the state in suspense, hinting at various dates that came and went without an announcement. On August 17, the actor finally and unequivocally said he was forming his own party, the name of which he planned to announce at an August 26 rally. ¶3. (SBU) Chiranjeevi unveiled the name of his new party: "Praja Rajayam" (Telugu for "People's Party") at a huge rally in Tirupati, a famous temple town in southern Andhra Pradesh. A journalist that went to the event told post that he estimated that at least 400,000 people attended the rally. Media reports noted that there were 18 special trains and more than 1,500 buses from locations throughout the state to help transport Chiranjeevi supporters to Tirupati. The journalist contact initially cautioned against reading too much into the crowd size, saying that "in Andhra Pradesh huge crowds at political rallies are common." He added that "about half" of the attendees were "a mobilized crowd," meaning that Chiranjeevi's party had gathered supporters from around the state and made arrangements to get them to the site. But, after some discussion, he acknowledged that the rally was "an impressive start" for Praja Rajayam. Defections shows Chiranjeevi's appeal -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The days between the August 17 announcement and the August 26 rally saw a number of politicians leave other parties to join Praja Rajayam. The defectors came from a wide range of parties, including the ruling Congress party, opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP),the Communist Party of India, and the Bharatiya Janata Party. The highest profile defector was Hariram Jogaiah, a sitting Congress party Member of Parliament. Jogaiah's resignation did not come as a surprise as he had previously committed to doing so in the event that Chiranjeevi -- who hails from the same Kapu caste as Jogaiah -- entered politics. Media reports, however, noted that the TDP suffered the largest number of defections. Our journalist contact noted that many of the defectors are out of office right now. As such, he said, they have less to risk by joining a new party. Alliance guessing game commences -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Speculation about possible alliances began the moment Chiranjeevi announced his plans. Newspapers ran stories linking Chiranjeevi's proposed party to virtually every party in Andhra Pradesh except Congress and the Telugu Desam. Chiranjeevi's phone call to BJP leader LK Advani fueled speculation that he was planning to join with the BJP, though both the BJP and Chiranjeevi denied that the phone call was a first step towards an alliance. At the August 26 rally, Chiranjeevi said that Praja Rajayam would be a "secular" party, which some reporters took as an indication that he would avoid pairing with the BJP. The media contact who had attended the August 26 rally said that any talk of a BJP-Praja Rajayam alliance was "speculation," but acknowledged that joining with BJP would benefit Chiranjeevi by associating him with the BJP's prime ministerial candidate. Several media outlets also guessed that Chiranjeevi will join forces with the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS). Chiranjeevi suggested that he would support a separate Telangana state in his August 26 speech, heightening the speculation of a potential TRS-Praja Rajayam alliance. CHENNAI 00000289 002 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) The size of the Tirupati rally and the instant speculation about potential alliances demonstrate that Praja Rajayam has already made an impact on Andhra Pradesh politics. But both the journalist and another analyst cautioned against reading too much into things at this point. The journalist said that although Chiranjeevi is a very popular actor, "he is by no means" NT Rama Rao, the Telugu actor who swept to power in Andhra Pradesh in 1982 after forming the Telugu Desam Party. The other analyst was quite dismissive, saying that "the overhyped entry into politics by a fading star" is unlikely to dramatically change the face of the state's politics. On the other hand, T. Devender Goud, who left the TDP and recently formed his own party -- the Nava Telangana Praja Party -- to advocate for Telangana statehood, told us that Chiranjeevi looks to be "a force to be reckoned with." Comment: Can Chiranjeevi turn his big splash into political tidal wave? -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Comment: Chiranjeevi has set the lofty goal of becoming Andhra Pradesh's next Chief Minister. With less than a year before the state's elections, Chiranjeevi will need to generate a tidal wave of support to overturn the existing Congress/TDP-dominated order. Congress Chief Minister YSR Reddy and TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu both have big political egos; it is virtually unimaginable that either would sublimate his ambitions to join with Chiranjeevi. As such, the actor will need to cobble together an alliance from the motley political remnants, which includes the two pro-Telangana parties, the left parties, BJP, and the fledgling Andhra Pradesh branch of Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party. It is far too early to tell whether any combination of these parties could get Chiranjeevi over the top of Congress and the TDP, but he has made a very promising debut. Even the long time it took for Chiranjeevi to decide, which some saw as a sign of the actor's indecisiveness, now looks like a deft effort to whip up enthusiasm among his potential supporters. Notwithstanding the cautionary notes some of our contacts expressed about Chiranjeevi and Praja Rajayam, we think the new party is likely to shake up Andhra Pradesh's political order. Comment: An opportunity for the BJP? Or Mayawati? -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Comment continued: In terms of national politics, even though Chiranjeevi said Praja Rajayam will be a "secular" party, BJP strategists are probably happiest to see the new party in Andhra Pradesh. The BJP's enthusiasm has nothing to do with ideology, but rather process of elimination and pure political calculus. With Chiranjeevi focused on the Chief Ministership, he is unlikely to partner with Congress or TDP. Nonetheless, he needs to associate his party with a national Prime Ministerial candidate to be viable in the parliamentary elections. Partnering with BJP, which is relatively weak force in Andhra Pradesh, could be a win-win situation. Chiranjeevi would have Andhra Pradesh's BJP voters supporting him for Chief Minister, and Praja Rajayam parliamentary candidates would stand a better chance running as part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The NDA, in turn, could potentially take away some seats in Andhra Pradesh from the Congress. So for now the talk centers on a potential BJP/Praja Rajayam alliance. But the elections are still months away and the very same considerations that compel an alliance with BJP could be equally advanced in favor of Praja Rajayam linking up with Mayawati's BSP. End comment. SIMKIN