TAMIL NADU EXPERIENCES POWER SHORTAGES, INEVITABLE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENNAI 000263 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EEB/ESC DHENGEL, PHAYMOND, DHENRY STATE FOR EEB/HST STEVE MANN DEPT OF ENERGY FOR U/S BUD ALBRIGHT, DSCHWARTZ DEPT OF ENERGY IP FOR A/A/S KFREDRIKSEN, RCOOPER, GBISCONTI DEPT OF ENERGY IP FOR TCUTLER, CGILLESPIE DEPT OF ENERGY FE FOR DAS JSWIFT, RLUHAR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ENRG TRGY KNNP ECON EINV PGOV EFIN IN RS SUBJECT: TAMIL NADU EXPERIENCES POWER SHORTAGES, INEVITABLE CONSEQUENCE OF UNDER-INVESTMENT REF: A) 07 CHENNAI 289, B) MOSCOW 2119 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Decades of under-investment in power generation have finally caught up with the South India state of Tamil Nadu, which is currently experiencing unprecedented disruptions of electricity supply. This under-investment, combined with strong economic growth and accompanying demand for power, stalled production projects, and the dearth of nuclear fuel supplies for India's nuclear power plants, have forced the state to implement electricity rationing. Recent rains may boost hydropower output and promises from New Delhi to supply more power from the national grid may ease the pain, but a state that once prided itself on having one of the most dependable power supplies in India is in a difficult situation. End Summary. Tamil Nadu announces power cuts -------------- ¶2. (U) Tamil Nadu's Minister of Electricity, Arcot Veeraswami, told a hastily gathered group of the state's leading companies on July 18 that his ministry would enforce "power holidays" starting on July ¶21. Noting that the state suffered from a power shortage of some 1000 megawatts (MW) of capacity, he explained that the supply in Chennai would be disrupted for one hour every day (through a series of rolling blackouts spread across eight zones) and for two hours in the state's other cities, and for three hours in rural areas. Farmers, he said, will get six hours of power during daylight hours five days per week and four hours the other two days, along with eight hours every night. He also told companies that his ministry would re-institute a system of "zonal holidays" for businesses, forcing them to operate without electricity from the grid one weekday per week. ¶3. (U) The current situation is not unexpected. Veeraswami first gave warning at a press conference in November 2007 that the state expected to experience an electricity shortfall in the summer of 2008 of up to 1300 megawatts (MW). Blaming rapid industrial expansion for the expected deficit, the minister said that the state would manage the situation through a combination of planned outages to businesses and continued attempts to secure additional power from India's national grid. He emphasized at that time that power to individual consumers would not be subjected to rolling blackouts. The state instituted a similar "zonal holiday" scheme for many businesses this spring, but ended it in May after unseasonable rains replenished sources of hydroelectric power. Who's to blame? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Privately, a senior Tamil Nadu official told us earlier this year that two key factors are contributing to the shortfall. One is the neighboring state of Kerala's decision to sell some of its hydro power to other states. Previously, Tamil Nadu had absorbed most of Kerala's spare capacity. The other reason, according to the official, is that Tamil Nadu is receiving far less power than projected from nuclear energy, largely because the construction of a new facility at Koodankulam (500 km south of Chennai) is behind schedule. ¶5. (SBU) Even the state's functioning nuclear plants are operating well below capacity, however. Tamil Nadu's Energy Minister told us in March that the state's nuclear power plants in Kalpakkam (30 km south of Chennai, at the Indhira Gandhi Center for Atomic Research, or IGCAR) are functioning at only 50 percent capacity because of a shortage of Russian-supplied uranium fuel. Recent press reports suggest that this fuel-shortage problem plagues many of India's nuclear power plants, noting that about half of them are operating near or below 50 percent capacity. Prime Minister Singh even noted the shortage of uranium fuel in his July 22 address to parliament as he spoke in support of the need for the civil nuclear agreement. ¶6. (SBU) The failure of successive governments to plan for increased demand is also to blame. The chairman of the Tamil Nadu Electricity Board (TNEB) told us that Tamil Nadu's impressive economic growth has led to an increase in electricity demand of some 500 MW per year in capacity over the past several years, while the state has added a mere 100 MW per year in reliable generation capacity. He also told us that the state's wind-power generation is often hampered by poor winds, noting that at any given time the state's wind farms produce far below (less than 10 percent of) their rated potential. CHENNAI 00000263 002 OF 003 (Comment: He told us this in January, a time when the state generally experiences little wind. The state's wide seasonal variability in wind, however, creates challenges consistently. The state's installed wind-power capacity is reported as 3600 MW, the most of any state in India, although the low plant load factor for wind means that actual capacity is less than one-third of this amount, at best. End comment.) Delays in Koodankulam plant, painful and mysterious -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The chairman of the Tamil Nadu Electricity Board (TNEB) told us this spring that the delays in the Koodankulam project were "the key issue" for the state's power woes, noting that the facility should be providing the state with an additional 900 MW of generating capacity by now. The history of this facility stretches back to 1988, when the Soviet Union's General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev signed an agreement with Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to sell two 1000 MW reactors to India. The Soviet Union fell apart before a final contract was negotiated, however, and the deal went nowhere through most of the 1990s. The Russian and Indian governments resuscitated the deal in 1998 (six weeks after India's controversial nuclear weapons tests),and the Russians maintain officially that the facility remains outside the purview of the 1992 Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) agreement, emphasizing that the original deal was signed in 1988 (ref B). ¶8. (SBU) The TNEB chair, when asked why there were delays in the Koodankulam project, told us "that's the million-dollar question -- nobody knows!" He said that the facility was originally slated to begin operating in December 2006, but the target date has now slipped to March 2009. ¶9. (SBU) The chairman of India's Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), Anil Kakodkar, told the press in late January that Russia had delayed work on the Koodankulam facility because of Russia's commitment to the NSG, an explanation consistent with ref B. The science editor of a major Indian daily explained to us that the Russians want to add additional reactors and expand the plant's capacity to at least 4000 MW, which they believe requires NSG approval. The Russians are therefore dragging their feet on construction, he said, until the NSG approves an agreement with India. ¶10. (SBU) We asked in early March a Russian diplomat who claimed to be involved in the project for his interpretation of the reasons for the delay in the Koodankulam facility. He denied that there was any delay and said that things were progressing normally. Quick fixes unlikely -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Some state officials -- particularly elected officials and those who serve at their pleasure -- suggest that the state's power problems will be resolved fairly quickly, emphasizing that new generation capacity, in the form of thermal plants, will come online later this year. Other officials are less sanguine. The TNEB chair told Chennai's American Chamber of Commerce in March, however, that shortages in the state may persist for two to three years. A detailed local press report quoted an unnamed TNEB official stating that the state's energy deficit would increase in the coming years, reaching nearly 1900 MW in capacity by 2010 or 2011. ¶12. (SBU) The Minister of Electricity announced in April that the state planned to sanction 15 privately owned power plants capable of generating more than 14,000 MW, but other officials have noted that these planned units are still several years away from operating. The TNEB chair told us that the state will encourage conservation (by subsidizing the use of compact fluorescent bulbs, for example, which TNEB estimates could reduce energy usage in the state by 300-400 MW) and add additional thermal-, wind-, and solar-generation capacity. Businesses develop strategies to cope -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Local companies are making plans to deal with the situation and keep their operations running. Most major companies have back-up generators, usually run on expensive diesel, which allow them to keep their core components functioning, even if power CHENNAI 00000263 003 OF 003 from the grid is unavailable. These generators operate a high cost per kilowatt-hour of output, however. Anecdotes from our local contacts suggest that operating on back-up power can raise energy costs from 30 to 100 percent. They appear to be taking it in stride, however, and all have told us that they will continue to operate, although several warned that if diesel supplies were disrupted (as happened in June and July),the result could be catastrophic. ¶14. (SBU) U.S. companies like automaker Ford and auto parts supplier Visteon have special arrangements with the Tamil Nadu government that should allow them to operate unimpeded (neither has enough back-up generation capacity to operate fully should the grid go down). Executives from both companies told us that they were confident that TNEB would supply them with the power they need to operate. They admitted, however, that some of their suppliers may face problems. ¶15. (SBU) Several of our contacts have complained, however, about the quality of electricity supply in recent months, noting that frequencies have varied widely and that there have been an unusually high number of power spikes. Chennai's emergence as a center for the production of electronic equipment has made this especially problematic, as many of the instruments used in the production and testing of this equipment are delicate. Consulate Chennai staff have also noticed an unusually high number of power outages in recent weeks. Comment -------------- ¶16. (SBU) Unusual rains in late July may help soften the power crunch by replenishing reservoirs used for hydropower, but there is no question that the electricity situation in Tamil Nadu is problematic. Tamil Nadu has long enjoyed a power surplus and a reputation for being one of India's most competently administered states, a combination that has helped it maintain an attractive climate for foreign investors, who continue to pile in, particularly in the more energy-intensive manufacturing and information technology sectors. If the state fails to keep the lights on, however, potential investors may begin to wonder if Tamil Nadu is the right place for their ventures. KAPLAN