ANDRHA'S TDP ROCKED BY SECOND-IN-COMMAND'S RESIGNATION

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000229 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV IN SUBJECT: ANDRHA'S TDP ROCKED BY SECOND-IN-COMMAND'S RESIGNATION REF: CHENNAI 197 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Telugu Desam Party (TDP),a major regional party based in the South Indian state Andhra Pradesh, suffered a serious blow when the party's second-in-command, T. Devender Goud, resigned on June 23. Goud, who had been a member of the party since 1987, broke with the TDP to protest the party's failure to take a definitive stand on whether the historically backward Telangana region deserves separate statehood. His resignation resuscitates the Telangana statehood movement and strengthens Congress's hand against the TDP in the upcoming elections. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Goud, the opposition TDP's Deputy Leader in the state legislature, resigned on June 23 saying he was doing so to allow himself to devote his time and energy to achieving separate statehood for Telangana. Goud held important positions in state government when the TDP was in power, including as Home Minister from 1999 to 2004 when he oversaw the TDP government's aggressive policy towards the Maoist insurgency in the state. A native son of Telangana, Goud has alternated between pressuring TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu to support separate statehood and accepting Naidu's ambiguous statements on the issue. In recent years Goud has taken an increasingly pro-Telangana line that put him at odds with Naidu. In 2006 he conducted a walking tour of nine districts to highlight the need for development in Telangana, and, in 2007, Goud attended the NGO-sponsored "Telangana Development Forum." Goud's agitation for Telangana-specific development was controversial as it was seen as contrary to Naidu's "united Andhra" policy. Later Naidu sought to placate Goud and the pro-Telangana faction he represented by forming a five member "core committee" to deliberate on the issue, with Goud as the sole representative from Telangana. Most recently, Naidu canceled the TDP's annual party convention to avoid the possibility of a confrontation over the issue. ¶3. (SBU) Telangana returned to center stage after the results of the May 29 by-elections were released. The by-elections had been necessitated by the mass resignations of elected representative of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS),a single-issue party dedicated to achieving separate statehood. The TRS was routed in the by-elections, which Naidu (as well as the popular media) interpreted as reflecting a lack of popular support for separate statehood (reftel). But Goud argued that the TRS failed in the by-elections for lack of leadership, not due to a lack of pro-Telangana sentiment. After a number of pro-Telangana TDP officials voiced their support for Goud and the call for separate statehood, Naidu called a June 18 core committee meeting to discuss the Telangana statehood issue. Goud found himself isolated at the core committee meeting as Naidu had persuaded the other pro-Telangana party officials to side with him. Goud, expecting expulsion from the party after the core committee meeting, resigned on June 23. On June 28, Goud announced that he would work to build a movement for statehood. When we asked whether he would form his own pro-Telangana party, Goud said, "Ultimately, it will go that way only." ¶4. (SBU) In damage control mode, Naidu held a videoconference with TDP officials from Telangana who all made public assurances that they had no intentions of leaving the party. Naidu also named a TDP Member of Parliament from Telangana to replace Goud on the party's "core committee." TDP surrogates took pains to point out that no other Telangana-based TDP officials followed Goud out of the party despite expectations that some would go with him. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: By providing a credible alternative to the TRS's ¶K. Chandrasekhar Rao, Goud's resignation resuscitates a Telangana statehood movement that was on the ropes after the TRS was routed in the by-elections in significant part due to voter frustration the mercurial TRS chieftain. In the short run, the resignation benefits Congress. Naidu clearly overplayed his hand in the wake of the by-election results; his statements that the by-elections demonstrated the weakness of pro-Telangana sentiment appear to have driven Goud -- both his number two and the TDP's most prominent Telangana face -- out of the party. Despite Naidu's efforts to put on a brave face, Goud's resignation comes at a difficult time for his party. The TDP is struggling to find its voice in the face of continued public support for Congress Chief Minister Reddy's populist programs. Naidu has lurched between complaining of rampant corruption in Reddy's programs to claiming that he would implement even more welfare and development projects than the Congress government. Goud's resignation will further damage the TDP's prospects in Telangana, where it had problems to begin with. So long as Chief Minister Reddy can continue to keep a lid on the pro-Telangana voices in his own Congress party, Naidu's problem with the issue will improve Congress's chances of staying in power in the state (where elections will be held in 2009) and retaining the 31 of Andhra Pradesh's 42 parliamentary seats it holds. End comment. HOPPER