DMK WON'T BREAK WITH CONGRESS BUT WILL URGE SONIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000223 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2018 TAGS: IN PGOV SUBJECT: DMK WON'T BREAK WITH CONGRESS BUT WILL URGE SONIA TO NAME A PM CANDIDATE Classified By: Principal Officer David T. Hopper for reasons 1.4 (b) an d (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Tamil Nadu's DMK party will not abandon Congress in the upcoming national elections according to one of the party's senior strategists and a confidante of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi. The strategist emphasized the need for the Congress party to project its prime ministerial candidate in advance of the next national elections, adding that if Congress dithers on projecting a candidate Karunanidhi would pressure Congress President Sonia Gandhi to make a decision. The strategist added that Sonia Gandhi would be the best candidate from the DMK's perspective, but that Karunanidhi would not advocate for a particular person. Turning to the DMK, the strategist expressed serious concerns over the impact of the infighting in the Karunanidhi family on the party. End summary. ¶2. (C) On June 9, DMK party insider Siva Prakasam discussed Tamil Nadu's political terrain. Prakasam is a retired businessman who has served as an unofficial political strategist for the party for fifteen years. He has never held elected office or a formal position in the party. As a trusted confidant of Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi, Praksam meets regularly with him to discuss political developments. With Karunanidhi's circle of friends small, Prakasam's talk provided a rare glimpse into senior-level DMK political thinking. DMK won't break with Congress for BJP -------------- ¶3. (C) Prakasam stated unequivocally that the DMK will not abandon Congress and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in the next elections for the Lok Sabha (India's Lower House of Parliament). Prakasam said the relationship between the DMK and Congress "remains strong" particularly because of the personal warmth between Congress President Sonia Gandhi and Karunanidhi. When we noted that Karunanidhi had joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance in 1999, Prakasam explained that the previous alliance with BJP was "because of Vajpayee." He said there is no possibility of an alliance with an LK Advani-led BJP because Advani is not acceptable in Tamil Nadu. (Note: Although he did not specifically address the subject, Prakasam spoke as though a pre-poll seat sharing agreement, like the one the DMK, Congress and several other smaller Tamil Nadu players made in 2004, is in the cards for the upcoming elections. End note.) AIADMK won't join BJP in a pre-poll alliance -------------- ¶4. (C) Although there are widespread rumors that the opposition AIADMK will join with the BJP, Prakasam believes that the AIADMK will not do so before the next Lok Sabha elections. He pointed out that the AIADAMK would only gain the roughly three per cent of Tamil Nadu voters who prefer BJP at the expense of scaring off the state's eleven percent minority population (Christian and Muslim). Prakasam acknowledged that "there are many things in common between" the BJP and AIADMK and expects they will continue to inch towards each other without formally allying in advance of the Lok Sabha elections. Then, after the elections, the AIADMK will assess the situation and strike a deal with the BJP if it will help the NDA put together a majority. Congress needs to project a Prime Minister candidate -------------- ¶5. (C) Prakasam said that the UPA cannot afford to go the next elections without Congress projecting a prime ministerial candidate in advance: "Congress will lose the Lok Sabha elections if it goes to the polls without a single candidate." He feels that that Congress lost to the BJP in the recent elections in Karnataka in large part because it failed to project a single candidate to be the state's Chief Minister. Prakasam's comments echoed the assessment we heard from a Congress party Member of the Legislative Assembly in Andhra Pradesh: "you can't win with four or five heads of the party; you need to pick one." Prakasam added that if Congress is typically indecisive, he expects that Karunanidhi would pressure Congress President Sonia Gandhi to project a candidate. Karunanidhi would act out of self-interest, he said, because Congress "needs" to project a strong candidate in advance if the DMK and its allies are to hold on to the lion's share of Tamil Nadu's Lok Sabha seats they won in ¶2004. CHENNAI 00000223 002 OF 002 DMK would prefer Sonia, but it's Congress's call -------------- ¶6. (C) Prakasam mentioned that Union Human Resources Development Minister Arjun Singh had recently paid a call on Karunanidhi in Chennai, suggesting that Singh had sought Karunanidhi's support for his bid to be the candidate. He emphasized that although the DMK leader would pressure Congress to project a candidate, he would not advocate for a particular individual. The DMK will not interfere in the Congress party's internal political affairs, Prakasam said. When we asked him to assess the potential Congress candidates, he said that Sonia Gandhi would be the most appealing in Tamil Nadu, Rahul is "not ready," and Pranab Mukherjee might be okay in North India but he would not help much in the South. Prakasam feels that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would be a bad candidate: "he is essentially a bureaucrat and he will bear the brunt of popular anger at the price rise." Comment: Karunanidhi clan's infighting dogs DMK -------------- ¶7. (C) Comment: Most of Karunanidhi's close associates have personal ambitions that shade their judgments about the state of the party. Prakasam, however, does not: he aspires to neither elected office nor a position in the party hierarchy. As a retired successful businessman he does not need patronage or a political job to support himself so he gives some of the more honest inside assessments of the state of the DMK. Prakasam acknowledged that inflation and potential defections by the DMK's allies pose a serious challenge to the DMK, and he deflected our questions about the party's prospects in the upcoming elections by saying "it's too early to tell." ¶8. (C) Comment continued: Interestingly, Prakasam lingered for quite some time on the subject of the infighting in the Karunanidhi clan. Prakasam told us "the Chief Minister has no challengers within the party and can withstand any opposition from other parties. But he has a major problem within his family." Karunanidhi has two wives and it is commonly known that he alternates spending nights with them in their respective houses, which are located a few miles apart in Chennai. Prakasam confirmed the widely held rumors that Karunanidhi's two sons from his first wife -- MK Stalin and MK Azhargiri -- are at odds. Significantly, he said that Karunanidhi did not want to bring his daughter Kanimozhi (who is the daughter of the Chief Minister's second wife) into politics but was forced to give her a seat in Parliament last year at the behest of her mother who was jealous of the political power of the sons born to the first wife. Tales of the Stalin-Azhagiri rivalry are commonplace, but Prakasam's comment about Karunanidhi's reluctance to introduce Kanimozhi into politics adds another layer of complexity. The octogenarian Karunanidhi seems to be having trouble managing the competing demands and ambitions of his two wives and three politician children. Along with anti-incumbency and quarrels with its Tamil allies, how successfully the elderly Karunanidhi navigates his increasingly contentious family life will be important to the DMK's efforts to hold onto the 34 of 38 Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha seats that it and its allies now hold. End comment. HOPPER