MORE OF THE SAME: COMMUNIST NATIONAL MEET OUTLINES FUTURE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CHENNAI 000153 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PREL PINR IN SUBJECT: MORE OF THE SAME: COMMUNIST NATIONAL MEET OUTLINES FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION Ref: 07 CHENNAI 707 ¶1. (U) Summary: The Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) held its nineteenth Party Congress in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu from March 29 - April 3. The CPM promised continued opposition to U.S.-India bilateral ties, which it characterized as a subjugation of India's national interests. The party also took the opportunity to criticize the performance of the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government and discussed its interest in forming a future "third alliance" of parties based on broad policy issues. During the conclave, party members adopted political resolutions and organizational suggestions that condone limited economic development initiatives, including in the industrial and retail sectors. While this Party Congress did not produce sweeping changes in the Politburo leadership and Prakash Karat retained his post as General Secretary, several new faces were inducted into the decision-making SIPDIS body as two elder statesmen of the party were relieved of their positions at their own requests. End Summary. Recycled statements and rhetoric -------------- ¶2. (U) CPM leadership repeated their criticisms of the U.S.-India relationship they have voiced over the last year. The party's opposition to the U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation initiative and defense cooperation headlined many of the party leaders' statements during the conclave. Politburo member Sitaram Yechury claimed the initiative would deprive India of much needed funds that could be directed towards health and education ventures if natural gas and hydro electric power generation was pursued instead of nuclear power plants. He quipped that pursuit of nuclear power within the framework of the agreement would create a vast divide between "shining India" and "suffering India." ¶3. (SBU) General Secretary rakash Karat set his sights on broad opposition o U.S.-India ties during his interactions with the press. Karat encouraged his party comrades to "cntinue the struggle to disentangle India from th strategic embrace of the United States" and too aim at the U.S.-India defense relationship, sayng that the defense framework agreement is part of n overarching alliance which remains unacceptabl to the CPM. Karat told press during an interviw that the CPM, having succeeded in pushing "poltical and strategic relations" to the forefront of public debate in India, would now work to create reater public support for the pursuit of "indepedent foreign policy." N. Ram, the editor of TheHindu newspaper, who is a friend of Karat and had just visited Coimbatore to observe the party congess, told Consulate officers that Karat's views o U.S.-India relations represent mainstream thinkng among the CPM. When asked whether Yechury agees with Karat on this issue, Ram gave an unequivoal answer saying the two are "of the same mind" nd that any perception that Yechury is more amenale to the U.S.-India civil nuclear and defense famework agreements is a misreading. Ram added tha both Karat and Yechury would be amenable to muli-lateral nuclear energy agreements. Setting he stage for policies and parnerships -------------- -- ¶4. (U) The CPM unanimously accepted the party's political resolution, which lays out the vision and political platforms of the party for the next three years, with few amendments to the draft that was circulated earlier this year. Press reported that the highlights of the resolution include adages to work against imperialism, resistance of liberalization and privatization policies, defense of secularism, and work towards alternative policies. The resolution will provide the main political direction and tactical line to party cadres for the next three years. ¶5. (U) As part of the party's effort to broaden its national footprint, the conclave also discussed the creation of a "third alternative" that will work to counter the national Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). According to statements by Karat widely covered in the press, this alternative would be based on adherence to three broad principles of opposition to "anti-people" economic reforms, communalism, and India's subordination to foreign interests. Karat publicly distinguished this hypothetical "third alternative" from the "third front" (formally known as the United National Progressive Alliance) which he characterized as an electoral alliance of political convenience. CPM's relations with Congress: keeping options open -------------- -------------- ¶6. (U) Press coverage of the conclave also afforded the CPM with an opportunity to attack the policies and performance of the Congress-led UPA coalition government. According to the CPM's draft organizational report, the Left parties no longer participate in UPA CHENNAI 00000153 002 OF 003 coordination committee meetings, which were originally aimed at the discussion and implementation of the Common Minimum Program, because they believe the UPA was too open with the media following these meetings. The party conclave also approved a political resolution that states the CPM will not enter into any formal, pre-election alliance with the Congress party at the state or national level. ¶7. (SBU) While the CPM was quick to critique the Congress' management of the UPA-Left relationship, the party did not rule out providing "outside support" to Congress governments (i.e., support in a post-election scenario that could allow Congress to form a government) in the future, which would replicate the position and sway the party currently holds in New Delhi. (Comment: Past party leadership has expressed interest in joining national coalitions, most recently in 1996 when then General Secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet wanted to join the United Front Government but was opposed by the Politburo. By keeping their name in the ring as potential political supporters of Congress governments, the CPM has affirmed its interest in continuing to play a role in national politics, even if its "third alternative" fails. End Comment.) Politburo changes suggest little chance of policy shifts -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) The CPM conclave held elections for the General Secretary position, the Central Committee, and the Politburo. Prakash Karat was re-elected at the General Secretary and there are three new faces in the Politburo and 17 new Central Committee members, according to press. West Bengal's Minister of Commerce and Industry Nirupam Sen -- who has been a staunch supporter of industrialization in his state -- filled the vacancy created by the death of Anil Biswas. Center of Indian Trade Unions (CITU) General Secretary Mohammed Amin, a former West Bengal Minister who heads the party's trade union, replaced CITU's deceased leader Chittrabata Majmuder. Amin is a factory worker-turned-politician who can be expected to represent the interests of the trade union above those of the West Bengal state where he based. Kerala's Home Minister Kodiyeri Balakrishnan, who has been implicated in some of the recent BJP-CPM violence in his state (reftel),rounds out the list of new Politburo members. In the Central Committee, both West Bengal's Minister of Housing Gautam Deb, who is a favorite of former Chief Minister Jyoti Basu, and Mridul De, who is close to Left front Chairman Biman Bose received seats. Kerala Finance Minister Thomas Isaac also received a seat in the new 87-member committee. (Comment: Isaac, a Ph.D. in Economics and a former Leftist academic, is touted by the media as a "neo-liberal Marxist" mostly due to his openness to IMF- and World Bank-funded projects. Although he has been characterized by opponents in his own party as an "imperialist stooge," he is not a free market proponent and was even in the forefront of anti-Coca-Cola agitation in Kerala. End Comment.) ¶9. Nonagenarian Politburo leaders and party founders Jyoti Basu and former General Secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet were relieved of their posts in the Politburo. Both had requested to leave the decision-making body due to health reasons, Surjeet has been bedridden for the last three years and Basu -- West Bengal's former Chief Minister -- cannot travel extended distances, according to press. Basu will remain a special invitee to the Politburo without voting powers while Surjeet will have a similar status in the Central Committee. Basu is credited with a central role in the CPM's successive victories in West Bengal elections over the last 30 years. Surjeet played a more active role in national politics and has been described as a kingmaker who provided his party's support to minority governments during the 1990s. According to observers, the Surjeet-Basu duo was replaced by the Karat-Bhattacharjee pair. Party condones development initiatives with ideological caveats -------------- -------------- ¶10. (U) While Kerala, which typically represents the more hardline ideological faction in the party, grew in representative strength on the Politburo, West Bengal received approval for its economic development policies, which have been seen to run counter to the ideological constraints of the Communist party in the past. The CPM's draft political resolution, which contains the party's stance on economic policies and reforms, was leaked to the press and essentially codified West Bengal's approach to industrial development within the rhetoric of the party. According to the draft, the party will push for greater industrialization through private investment, and growth in manufacturing. Large Indian conglomerates in the organized retail sector will also be allowed to enter CPM-led states. The report instructed state governments to frame regulations and create a licensing system in which municipal governments will provide licenses to the retail outfits. Observers said that the party informally decided to be more capital friendly in West Bengal than the circulated documents suggest. A fusion of Bhattacharjee's economic line and Karat's ideological "party line" was evident. Bhattacharjee's new model -- industrialization and CHENNAI 00000153 003 OF 003 capitalism in the common man's interest -- was acknowledged. ¶11. (U) The draft report kept an eye towards the ideological precepts of the party and drew a distinction between Left-led Kerala's economic situation and that of West Bengal. According to press, the report stated that industrialization in Kerala cannot be along the same pattern as in West Bengal and took into account the concerns of CPM Chief Minister of Kerala V.S. Achuthanandan, who has historically opposed the development of manufacturing industries and changes in land-use patterns in his state. The party's report also said that "the Left-led governments, while fostering more investments and industries, will formally continue to defend the interests of workers and trade union rights" and added that it is "necessary to develop industrialization on the basis of agricultural growth." Mixed party prospects in run-up to elections -------------- ¶12. (U) The organization report also included analysis of party prospects in addition to attrition and retention rates nationwide, according to press. The party now claims 982,000 "basic members," up from 905,000 in 2005, according to a public statement from Politburo member Ramachandran Pillai. He expressed concern, however, about the quality of members and uneven growth rates in different states. According to press, Tamil Nadu's drop out rate among full-time party cadres is more than 16 percent, and the national attrition average of this group is 7.5 percent. Women make up only 12 percent of the party. Pillai said on the sidelines on the conclave that there was no "substantial breakthrough in increasing party membership in the states where we are weak." Foreign delegates generate press buzz -------------- ¶13. (U) More than 770 Indian delegates and about 50 international representatives attended the six day party congress. Both Karat and Yechury welcomed the international visitors to the conclave, and large cut-outs of Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro, along with Marx, Lenin, accompanied by numerous images of Karat and Yechury decked the streets of Coimbatore. According to press, the delegates from Cuba and the United States received loud rounds of applause when they were presented, while the six-person Chinese delegation garnered the loudest volume of appreciation for their attendance. ¶14. (U) The two American delegates garnered broad press coverage during the Congress and were described as almost "unbelievable" rarities by one media outfit. Both the American and Cuban missions to the conclave criticized the United State's international policies, while the Chinese delegation, led by Li Jinjun, the vice-minister of the Communist Party of China's International Department, stuck to expressing China's pleasure concerning India and the Indian Left's stand on Tibet. Comment: CPM's Opposition to U.S. and the Congress Party: A Winning Formula in Kerala and West Bengal -------------- -------------- ¶15. (SBU) The repetitive rhetoric on display against U.S. policies during the party congress suggests the CPM is prepared to make the U.S.-India relationship a central facet of its campaign in national elections that must be held before May 2009. While this may work in some pockets, it is unlikely to be a winning formula nationwide for the communists. The CPM continues to project itself as a national party of import but there are many reasons why it is not, chief among them that most Indians have moved far beyond the communists' antiquated policy prescriptions and shrill ideological blather. Even if the party can cobble together a "third alliance," the likelihood of multiple regional parties with their own interests adhering to a single strategic line is unlikely. Having found a winning formula that allows the party to direct and influence the central government from its political outposts in West Bengal and Kerala, it remains more likely that the CPM will continue to leverage its relationship with the UPA government to impede policies and obstruct further progress on U.S.-India relations in the run up to the next election. ¶16. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi and Consulate General Kolkata. HOPPER