CHAVEZ LOYALISTS WIN PSUV "PRIMARY"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000758 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT FOR AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE SUBJECT: CHAVEZ LOYALISTS WIN PSUV "PRIMARY" REF: CARACAS 000677 CARACAS 00000758 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES, REASON 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. Chavez loyalists dominated the United Socialist Party of Venezuela's (PSUV's) June 1 intra-party elections for the nominations in the November state and local races. Per the party's rules, the PSUV party leadership will decide who the party's nominees are in races where there was no overwhelming winner, including eight of 22 gubernatorial nominations. PSUV officials claimed that 2.5 million of PSUV's purported six million members voted, although the National Electoral Council (CNE) published results showing just under two million PSUV members participated. President Chavez and other senior PSUV party leaders are arguing that the managed PSUV "primary" gives its candidates greater democratic legitimacy, although divisions clearly remain within Chavez' new party. Opposition parties still believe they can win as many as ten of 22 gubernatorial races (up from two),but they are still trying to forge consensus on single opposition candidates. End Summary. -------------- PSUV "Primary" Day -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Chavez' new United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) held intra-party elections for the party's nomination for 22 gubernatorial and over 337 mayoral races in November. The National Electoral Council (CNE) conducted the PSUV party elections with close to 5000 aspirants nationwide. Candidates were not allowed to advertise on commercial television and radio stations or criticize their opponents, including sitting incumbents. Government networks devoted considerable air time exclusively to PSUV pre-candidates in the run-up to the June 1 "primary." PSUV party leaders claimed approximately 2.5 million of the PSUV's six million registered party members participated in the June 1 elections. (Note: Local analysts believe PSUV leaders' claim of over 6 million members out of 16 million registered voters is greatly exaggerated. CNE's published results state 1.98 million voters participated, not 2.5 million. End Note). ¶3. (SBU) The PSUV named winners only in contests in which a candidate either secured over 50 percent of the vote or defeated the nearest competitor by at least 15 percent (Reftel). The CNE published results of the gubernatorial nomination races and a few mayoral races on its website, although neither the PSUV or CNE has yet published results of most of the 337 mayoral nomination elections. PSUV Party President Hugo Chavez and the PSUV national executive committee will determine over the next few days who the party's nominees will be in races in which there was no clear winner, including eight of 22 gubernatorial nomination contests. The PSUV will also negotiate this week electoral alliances with smaller pro-Chavez parties, but will support non-PSUV pro-government candidates only in areas where the PSUV "primary" did not produce a clear winner. -------------- Loyalists Win Big -------------- ¶4. (C) Long-time, loyal supporters of President Chavez dominated the PSUV intra-party election. Former Education Minister Aristobulo Chavez will be the PSUV's candidate for the Caracas mayorship and former Vice President Jorge Rodriguez will run for the mayorship of Caracas Libertador borough. Four out of five sitting PSUV governors won the party's nomination for re-election, including Miranda Governor Diosdado Cabello. Mario Silva, the hard-line pro-Chavez host of the government political talk show "La Hojilla," will be the PSUV nominee in Carabobo State, although he has never resided there. President Chavez' brother and former Education Minister Adan Chavez won over 90 percent of the PSUV vote to become that party's nominees for the governorship of Barinas State. ¶5. (C) At the same time, some notable PSUV leaders fared poorly. The former head of Venezuela's Tax Agency (SENIAT) Vielma Mora and former UN Ambassador Francisco Arias Cardenas finished second and third, respectively, in the nomination race for the governorship of Tachira. There was no clear winner in Tachira, so Chavez could still give one of them his party's nomination. Libertador Mayor Freddy Bernal was soundly defeated in the PSUV gubernatorial nomination race in CARACAS 00000758 002.2 OF 002 Vargas State. A key contributor to Chavez' failed constitutional reform, National Assembly member Carlos Escarra, lost badly in Aragua State. The PSUV also "persuaded" some unpopular incumbents, such as Caracas Mayor Juan Barreto and the Carabobo State Governor Luis Felipe Acosta, not to run at all. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) While President Chavez and other PSUV leaders are proclaiming the June 1 "primary" to be an historic success, the political results are likely to be more mixed. The PSUV intra-party elections may lend some additional electoral legitimacy to its candidates, at least in those cases that the party leadership does not impose a winner. Moreover, it provided aspiring candidates an early opportunity to mount and TEST their campaign organizations, albeit in a managed internal election. ¶7. (C) The real TEST will be whether the PSUV remains united in areas where Chavez selects the final candidates, especially if he passes over the top vote-getters. The opposition hopes to capture several more than the two governorships it currently controls (four, if you count the expelled pro-Chavez party Podemos). The opposition with Podemos' help could conceivably defeat as many as 10 of 22 PSUV gubernatorial candidates, if it succeeds in uniting behind consensus candidates. Opposition parties are aiming to decide on such candidates by the end of June, although that self-imposed deadline is likely to slip. DUDDY