CHAVEZ LOYALISTS WIN PSUV "PRIMARY"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000758

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT FOR AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ LOYALISTS WIN PSUV "PRIMARY"

REF: CARACAS 000677

CARACAS 00000758 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES,
REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. Chavez loyalists dominated the United
Socialist Party of Venezuela's (PSUV's) June 1 intra-party
elections for the nominations in the November state and local
races. Per the party's rules, the PSUV party leadership will
decide who the party's nominees are in races where there was
no overwhelming winner, including eight of 22 gubernatorial
nominations. PSUV officials claimed that 2.5 million of
PSUV's purported six million members voted, although the
National Electoral Council (CNE) published results showing
just under two million PSUV members participated. President
Chavez and other senior PSUV party leaders are arguing that
the managed PSUV "primary" gives its candidates greater
democratic legitimacy, although divisions clearly remain
within Chavez' new party. Opposition parties still believe
they can win as many as ten of 22 gubernatorial races (up
from two),but they are still trying to forge consensus on
single opposition candidates. End Summary.

--------------
PSUV "Primary" Day
--------------


2. (SBU) Chavez' new United Socialist Party of Venezuela
(PSUV) held intra-party elections for the party's nomination
for 22 gubernatorial and over 337 mayoral races in November.
The National Electoral Council (CNE) conducted the PSUV party
elections with close to 5000 aspirants nationwide.
Candidates were not allowed to advertise on commercial
television and radio stations or criticize their opponents,
including sitting incumbents. Government networks devoted
considerable air time exclusively to PSUV pre-candidates in
the run-up to the June 1 "primary." PSUV party leaders
claimed approximately 2.5 million of the PSUV's six million
registered party members participated in the June 1
elections. (Note: Local analysts believe PSUV leaders' claim
of over 6 million members out of 16 million registered voters
is greatly exaggerated. CNE's published results state 1.98
million voters participated, not 2.5 million. End Note).


3. (SBU) The PSUV named winners only in contests in which a
candidate either secured over 50 percent of the vote or
defeated the nearest competitor by at least 15 percent
(Reftel). The CNE published results of the gubernatorial
nomination races and a few mayoral races on its website,
although neither the PSUV or CNE has yet published results of
most of the 337 mayoral nomination elections. PSUV Party
President Hugo Chavez and the PSUV national executive
committee will determine over the next few days who the
party's nominees will be in races in which there was no clear
winner, including eight of 22 gubernatorial nomination
contests. The PSUV will also negotiate this week electoral
alliances with smaller pro-Chavez parties, but will support
non-PSUV pro-government candidates only in areas where the
PSUV "primary" did not produce a clear winner.

--------------
Loyalists Win Big
--------------


4. (C) Long-time, loyal supporters of President Chavez
dominated the PSUV intra-party election. Former Education
Minister Aristobulo Chavez will be the PSUV's candidate for
the Caracas mayorship and former Vice President Jorge
Rodriguez will run for the mayorship of Caracas Libertador
borough. Four out of five sitting PSUV governors won the
party's nomination for re-election, including Miranda
Governor Diosdado Cabello. Mario Silva, the hard-line
pro-Chavez host of the government political talk show "La
Hojilla," will be the PSUV nominee in Carabobo State,
although he has never resided there. President Chavez'
brother and former Education Minister Adan Chavez won over 90
percent of the PSUV vote to become that party's nominees for
the governorship of Barinas State.


5. (C) At the same time, some notable PSUV leaders fared
poorly. The former head of Venezuela's Tax Agency (SENIAT)
Vielma Mora and former UN Ambassador Francisco Arias Cardenas
finished second and third, respectively, in the nomination
race for the governorship of Tachira. There was no clear
winner in Tachira, so Chavez could still give one of them his
party's nomination. Libertador Mayor Freddy Bernal was
soundly defeated in the PSUV gubernatorial nomination race in

CARACAS 00000758 002.2 OF 002


Vargas State. A key contributor to Chavez' failed
constitutional reform, National Assembly member Carlos
Escarra, lost badly in Aragua State. The PSUV also
"persuaded" some unpopular incumbents, such as Caracas Mayor
Juan Barreto and the Carabobo State Governor Luis Felipe
Acosta, not to run at all.

--------------
Comment
--------------


6. (C) While President Chavez and other PSUV leaders are
proclaiming the June 1 "primary" to be an historic success,
the political results are likely to be more mixed. The PSUV
intra-party elections may lend some additional electoral
legitimacy to its candidates, at least in those cases that
the party leadership does not impose a winner. Moreover, it
provided aspiring candidates an early opportunity to mount
and test their campaign organizations, albeit in a managed
internal election.


7. (C) The real test will be whether the PSUV remains united
in areas where Chavez selects the final candidates,
especially if he passes over the top vote-getters. The
opposition hopes to capture several more than the two
governorships it currently controls (four, if you count the
expelled pro-Chavez party Podemos). The opposition with
Podemos' help could conceivably defeat as many as 10 of 22
PSUV gubernatorial candidates, if it succeeds in uniting
behind consensus candidates. Opposition parties are aiming
to decide on such candidates by the end of June, although
that self-imposed deadline is likely to slip.

DUDDY