CHAVEZ REITERATES INTENTION TO RUN AGAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000731 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM VE SUBJECT: CHAVEZ REITERATES INTENTION TO RUN AGAIN CARACAS 00000731 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT RICHARD DOWNES, REASON 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. President Chavez and his close confidant Miranda State Governor Diosdado Cabello publicly and unambiguously declared recently that the Venezuelan president intends to run for a third term in 2012. Chavez will still need to alter the 1999 Constitution's two-term limit, one of the reforms that was voted down in the December 2007 constitutional referendum. Neither Chavez nor Cabello specified how or exactly when they intend to do that. Chavez' restatement of his intention to govern until at least 2021 may be part of an electoral strategy to frame the November state and local elections as a referendum on his presidency. He also appears to be trying to enhance his ability to impose party discipline on his increasingly divided supporters. End Summary. -------------- Ready to Govern Until 2021 -------------- ¶2. (SBU) During his nationally televised May 24 speech to the state electric company in the western state of Merida, President Chavez said he intends to govern until 2021. "You can write it down," Chavez bellowed, "this revolution is here to stay." In the same speech, Chavez said his failed constitutional reform package, which would have eliminated presidential term limits, was "premature" and his "mistake." Nevertheless, Chavez said he and his supporters are obliged to continue promoting the proposed changes. Chavez did not specify when he intends to press ahead with another referendum that could allow him to run again after his second term of office ends in January 2013. ¶3. (SBU) Chavez' remarks come on the heels of an interview with Miranda Governor Diosdado Cabello published May 17 in the opposition-oriented daily "El Universal." Cabello said Chavez' supporters will look for the "right moment" to eliminate presidential term limits. He conceded that Chavez could not himself propose another similar constitutional initiative like the failed constitutional referendum, but insisted that there are other mechanisms to hold another referendum on the elimination of term limits. (Note: Chavez supporters argue that the National Assembly or a petition drive of 15 percent of the electorate could generate a second �A;referendum on the issue. Many constitutional lawyers, however, argue that the 1999 Constitution prohibits putting a failed reform proposal to a second vote in the same presidential term. End Note). Cabello also defended the idea of eliminating term limits only for the presidency, noting that the chief executive is a "strategic" position, while governors and mayors are only "tactical." ¶4. (C) Chavez reasserted his intention to run again in the wake of the "No" victory in the December 2007 constitutional referendum, but said then that he did not intend to take the issue up again until at least 2009. In speeches since then, Chavez has frequently made references to his potential post-presidential intentions, mentioning teaching, farming, a return to the military, and political advising. Chavez' and Cabello's more recent remarks, however, are a clear and unambiguous declaration that Chavez real intention, if there were any doubt, is to find a way to run again in 2012. Cabello's remarks are particularly noteworthy given that conventional wisdom points to the Miranda Governor as a potential successor to Chavez. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) President Chavez' restating his intention to run again appears to be in the first instance, a concerted effort to reinsert himself into the state and local elections slated for November. Chavez remains far and away the most popular figure in his new United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), but just as was the case in the 2007 constitutional referendum, Chavez' name will not be on the ballot in the upcoming gubernatorial and mayoral races. Many of Chavez' gubernatorial and mayoral candidates may very well need Chavez' coattails, as Chavez will almost certainly prioritize loyalty over competence. In his stump speeches, Chavez is already framing these elections as another referendum on his presidency, repeatedly warning that if the opposition wins victories in key states, "they will come after me." CARACAS 00000731 002.2 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Chavez also appears to need to reassert his intended longevity in order to enhance his ability to impose greater discipline on his increasingly fractured political party. Intra-PSUV divisions are likely to grow after the party's June 1 "primaries" and after Chavez determines candidates in the closely contested internal races in the first half of June. With over four years left in his second term, Chavez is by no means a lame duck, but even the theoretical possibility that Chavez may not be able to run after 2012 appears to have weakened his position with respect to some of his more ambitious supporters. Intense internal PSUV competition for gubernatorial and mayoral nominations is probably exacerbated by PSUV members seeking to obtain elected positions that protect or enhance their personal political positions up to -- and beyond -- 2012. DUDDY